Henrique Simoes

Commodities Outlook for 2010, Goldman Sachs Edition

Interesting

GS thinks that Gold has the biggest profit potential?

I disagree. I think Ag commodities will do better

Jim Rogers: U.S. About to Have a Currency Crisis

Gold is Undecided, you are dead right.

Cheers


On May 13 10:26 AM RiskReturnOptimizer wrote:

> Agree with Henrique.
>
> Unfortunately, after Lehman collapse, there are two macro asset classes:
> risk and "risk free."
>
> Stocks, corp bonds, commodities, currencies (except Yen), ... are
> part of risk group and highly correlated.
>
> Risk free is treasuries, TIP, FDIC-backed bonds, Yen, and perhaps
> Muni (was in first category until last two months) and Agency paper.
>
>
> Undecided: gold.
>
> The only risk-managed way is to time your purchases and be aggressive
> in sector rotation looking at undervalued countries (e.g., EWT),
> sectors (e.g., XLV), and asset class arbitrage (e.g., long convertibles/preferred,
> short common stock as hedge).

Jim Rogers: U.S. About to Have a Currency Crisis

I hope you bought those contract a few weeks ago and that they are in the money. Because I think commodities and risky assets in general will trend down from here on.

Commodities are being pushed by sentiment and not by demand. That means when sentiment changes, and it has changed already, your positions will rush south.

Cheers. Take care.