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Henry Ma, CFA
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Dr. Henry Ma, CFA, is a global macro manager who specializes in both short-term trading opportunities and long-term asset allocation strategies in global equity indexes, currencies, commodities, interest rates and ETF's. He is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Julex Capital... More
My company:
Julex Capital Management, LLC
My blog:
All Season Investing
  • Stocks Had The First Decline In Six Weeks | Multi Asset Investments 8-26-2012

    Top Stories Last Week

    • Stocks Had the First Decline in Six Weeks

    U.S. stocks ended the week lower, the first weekly decline in six weeks. Trading volume was light and no significant economic news was released. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.7% and Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX) was off 0.5% from a week ago. MSCI EAFE index declined by 0.4% and MSCI Emerging Market index lost 1.0%.

    • Apple Became the Most Valuable Company in History

    Apple set record for world's most valuable company at $621 billion in history on Monday in terms of market capitalization. The reason for the rise on Monday in the stock appeared to be rumors surrounding the release of iPhone 5. The previous record-holder was Microsoft which hit its all-time high on December 30, 1999 at the height of the internet bubble.

    • China's Manufacturing Sector Continued to Contract

    HSBC's initial purchasing manager's Index for Chinese manufacturing fell to 47.8 from 49.3 in July. China has been hit particularly hard by the recession in Europe. The European sovereign debt crisis has also prompted severe austerity measures, which weakened demand in the euro zone, the largest market for Chinese exports. In addition, slow recovery in the US cut demand for Chinese exports.

    • UK's Double Dip Recession Continued

    Britain's economy shrank less than first feared in the second quarter. GDP fell by 0.5%, which was in line with economists' expectations. However, the gross domestic product has been declining for three consecutive quarters in the country's second recession in four years.

    • US Housing Market Recovery Was Taking Hold

    Sales of new homes in the US rose 3.6% in July to match a two-year high. Existing-home sales increased 2.3% in July from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.47 million, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. The month's sales were 10.4% above the same month a year earlier. These are the latest signs of a steady recovery in the housing market.

    Top Stories to Watch This Week

    • Bernanke / Draghi Will Speak at Jackson Hole

    Fed Chairman Bernanke and ECB president Mario Draghi will speak at the central bank meeting held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Investors will try to get more hints on further quantitative easing.

    • US Consumer Confidence

    The US consumer confidence, a gauge on US consumptions, is expected to improve slightly.

    • Samaras-Hollande Meeting

    Greece Prime Minister, Samaras, will a meeting with French president, François Hollande, to discuss about the next Greece loan tranche of €31.5bn. Investors will watch carefully the progress of European crisis.

    Weekly Performance Summary

    The portfolios except the Concentrated Portfolio had positive performance last week as a result of the positive bond performance.

    Table 1: ETF Performance

    Asset Class Return  Last Week ReturnMTD ReturnYTD Return
    Equities     
     SPYUS Large Cap-0.47%2.76%13.84%
     IWMUS Small Cap-1.19%3.05%10.36%
     EFADeveloped Market Equity-0.38%4.20%7.64%
     VWOEmerging Market Equity-0.97%2.35%7.17%
    Dividend Assets     
     IYRUS REIT-0.05%-0.63%16.46%
     AMJUS Energy Master Trust-2.57%-1.01%2.92%
    Commodities     
     GLDGold3.35%3.50%6.57%
     GSGCommodity-0.06%5.77%3.37%
    Bonds     
     HYGUS High Yield0.67%1.05%7.30%
     AGGUS Bond0.53%-0.49%2.99%
     TIPUS Treasury Inflation Indexed Bond1.29%-0.87%4.81%
     IEFUS Treasury Bond1.05%-1.17%3.30%
     TLTUS Long Term Treasury Bond2.64%-3.57%4.59%
     SHYUS Short Term Bond0.07%-0.06%0.18%

    Table 2: Portfolio Performance

     

     

    Portfolio SolutionsAsset Allocation
    (%Risk Asset
    /%Bond)
    WTDMTD
    (1 day delay)
    YTD
    (1 day delay)
    1-YR
    (as of 12/11)
    5-YR
    (as of 12/11)
    10-YR
    (as of 12/11)
    Aggressive80/200.7%-0.3%4.6%12.4%16.4%16.1%
    Moderate60/400.8%-0.4%3.8%12.4%14.8%14.4%
    Conservative40/600.9%-0.5%3.5%12.5%13.7%12.8%
    Defensive20/800.9%-0.6%4.1%13.2%12.5%11.1%
    Concentrated PortfolioTwo ETFs-1.3%-0.8%6.8%12.1%19.1%19.3%
    S&P 500 Index -0.5%2.8%13.8%2.0%-0.3%2.9%
    Barclays Bond Index 0.5%-0.5%3.0%10.3%6.9%5.8%
    CPI Inflation    3.2%2.3%2.5%

    For more information about the multi-asset investment strategies, please visit allseasoninvesting.com.

    About ALL SEASON INVESTING: All Season Investing is an investment blog, created in December 2011 to offer investors insights and researches on how to implement a dynamic multi asset allocation strategy with the low-cost index funds or ETFs to achieve consistent returns while limiting downside risks through all stages of a market cycle.

    Disclosure: I am long SPY, IWM, EFA, VWO, IYR, AMJ, GLD, GSG, HYG, JNK, AGG, TIP, IEF, TLT, VNQ.

    Aug 27 2:24 PM | Link | Comment!
  • US Stocks Rose On Better-Than-Expected Economic Data And Light Trading Volume | Multi Asset Investments 08-19-2012

    Top Stories Last Week

    • US Stocks Rose on Better Economic Data

    U.S. stocks ended the week higher marked by low volatility and light volume as many market participants were on vacation, the European crisis cooled and domestic economic data showed some improvements. The US Retail Sales in July increased by 0.8%, better than the consensus of 0.3%. S&P 500 Index was up by 1.0% and Russell 2000 Index rose by 2.2%. The ten-year Treasury rate jumped to 1.82% as bond markets declined.

    • Sixty-Eight Percent of the Companies in S&P 500 Index Beat Earning Estimates

    Among the 475 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings so far, 68% have beaten analyst expectations, according to data from Thomson Reuters. That's higher than the long-term average of 62%. However, only 41% of companies have reported second-quarter revenue above analyst expectations. This is lower than the long-term average of 63%. This indicates that the corporate earning growth mainly has come from cost-cutting rather than revenue growth.

    • Euro-zone Economy Declined Slightly in the Second Quarter

    The eurozone economy stumbled through the second quarter with gross domestic product declining by 0.2% in the second quarter. However, Germany's GDP rose 0.3% compared to the prior quarter, while the French GDP remained flat. The two major economies in the eurozone are not yet faltering.

    • Japanese Growth Slowed in the Second Quarter

    Japanese economic growth slowed more than expected in the April-June quarter, at a moderate rate of 1.4%, as exports and consumer spending lost momentum. Japan had a growth rate of 5.5% in the first quarter as government boosted spending on rebuilding in areas battered by the March 2011 earthquake. But the Europe's persistent debt crisis, weaker global demand hurt Japan's export-reliant economy.

    • Inflation Remained Tame in the US and Euro-zone

    U.S. consumer prices were flat in July for a second straight month. In the 12 months to July, the CPI rose 1.4 percent, the smallest gain since November 2010, giving the Federal Reserve room to ease policy further to improve employment.

    In Euro-zone, the annual pace of inflation remained at 2.4% in July, as consumer prices in the 17 euro-area countries fell 0.5% on the month. Although the inflation rate was slightly higher than the ECB's target of 2% over the medium term, there is some room for ECB to tackle the debt crisis.

    • US Retail Sales Rose 0.8%, Better than Expected

    Retail Sales in the US rose 0.8%, more than forecast in July, reflecting broad-based gains across all 13 categories. The advance beat economists' projection of 0.3%, the first gain in four months. That eases the concern that a high unemployment rate will cause consumers to retrench.

    • Facebook Stocks Fell below $20 Per Share

    The social-media firm Facebook closed at $19.05 on Friday, 50% below its IPO price, as more company's shares emerged in the markets as the post-IPO lockups expired. The price could take more hits in the coming months. More than 1.3 billion shares will come on the market before the end of the year as more lockups expire.

    Top Stories to Watch This Week

    • Fed Minutes

    Fed meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday. Investors will look for signs of QE3.

    • China/European PMI

    Analysts expect that the HSBC Manufacturing PMI and Markit Manufacturing PMI will continue show contractions in both China and Euro-zone.

    • UK GDP

    The UK economy continued contraction in the second quarter, as GDP declined by 0.2%, according to economists' survey.

    • US Housing Data

    US new home sales and existing home sales will increase and housing price index will rise by 0.5% in June, according to Economists consensus, providing a further sign of stabilization in housing markets.

    • US Durable Goods Orders

    US Durable Good Orders are expected to increase by 1.6% in July, an improvement in production activities.

    • Merkel-Hollande Meeting

    German Chancellor Merkel will meet with French President Hollande on Thursday to discuss the euro-crisis.

    Weekly Performance Summary

    The portfolios except the Concentrated portfolios had small losses last week as a result of the negative bond performance.

    Table 1: ETF Performance

    Edit
    Asset Class Return  Last Week ReturnMTD ReturnYTD Return
    Equities     
     SPYUS Large Cap0.95%3.25%14.38%
     IWMUS Small Cap2.24%4.29%11.69%
     EFADeveloped Market Equity0.83%4.60%8.06%
     VWOEmerging Market Equity-0.60%3.35%8.22%
    Dividend Assets     
     IYRUS REIT0.88%-0.58%16.51%
     AMJUS Energy Master Trust1.18%1.59%5.63%
    Commodities     
     GLDGold-0.29%0.15%3.11%
     GSGCommodity1.73%5.83%3.43%
    Bonds     
     HYGUS High Yield0.10%0.38%6.59%
     AGGUS Bond-0.57%-1.01%2.45%
     TIPUS Treasury Inflation Indexed Bond-1.42%-2.13%3.48%
     IEFUS Treasury Bond-1.18%-2.20%2.23%
     TLTUS Long Term Treasury Bond-3.26%-6.05%1.90%
     SHYUS Short Term Bond-0.05%-0.13%0.11%

    Table 2: Portfolio Performance

     

     

    Edit
    Portfolio SolutionsAsset Allocation
    (%Risk Asset
    /%Bond)
    WTDMTD
    (1 day delay)
    YTD
    (1 day delay)
    1-YR
    (as of 12/11)
    5-YR
    (as of 12/11)
    10-YR
    (as of 12/11)
    Aggressive80/20-0.3%-1.0%4.0%12.4%16.4%16.1%
    Moderate60/40-0.6%-1.0%3.3%12.4%14.8%14.4%
    Conservative40/60-0.7%-1.1%3.0%12.5%13.7%12.8%
    Defensive20/80-0.8%-1.5%3.1%13.2%12.5%11.1%
    Concentrated PortfolioTwo ETFs1.0%0.4%8.0%12.1%19.1%19.3%
    S&P 500 Index 1.0%3.1%14.2%2.0%-0.3%2.9%
    Barclays Bond Index -0.6%-1.1%2.3%10.3%6.9%5.8%
    CPI Inflation   

    For more information about the multi-asset investment strategies, please visit allseasoninvesting.com.

    About ALL SEASON INVESTING: All Season Investing is an investment blog, created in December 2011 to offer investors insights and researches on how to implement a dynamic multi asset allocation strategy with the low-cost index funds or ETFs to achieve consistent returns while limiting downside risks through all stages of a market cycle.

    Disclosure: I am long SPY, IWM, EFA, VWO, IYR, AMJ, GLD, GSG, HYG, JNK, AGG, TIP, IEF, TLT, VNQ.

    Aug 20 5:45 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Markets Moved Higher On Speculation That ECB And Fed Would Do More QE|Multi Asset Investments 08-12-2012

    Top Stories Last Week

    • Markets Were Higher on Speculation that ECB and Fed would Do More QE

    Global stock markets ended higher for the week despite the disappointing economic news from Europe and China. S&P 500 index rose 1.1%, MSCI EAFE index was up by 1.7% and MSCI Emerging Market index climbed 2.0%. Investors expected the European Central Bank to start buying Spanish and Italian bonds soon and Federal Reserve to start another round of quantitative easing to boost the economic growth.

    • Chinese Economy was Flagging, Investors Hoped for More Policy Easing

    Industrial production in China grew 9.2% from a year earlier, far below the analysts' expectation of 9.8%. The figure was also lower than the 9.5% seen in June. Retail sales, an indication of domestic consumption, grew 13.1% in July. Analysts had forecasted the figure to hold at the 13.7% recorded in June.

    The exports growth from China grounded to a near halt in July, with just 1% from the same month a year earlier, far below what the economists had expected and well beneath the 11.3% level in June.

    The turmoil in Europe and the tepid pace of economic growth in the US have, increasingly dragged down exports from China. The disappointed economic data will probably prompt more rate cuts and lower reserve ratios from the People's Bank of China.

    • European Industrial Production Shrank Again

    Industrial production in the euro zone showed signs of retreat in June, with Spanish production declining for its 10th straight month to 6.3 percent year-on-year and German output weakening more than economists had forecasted. Germany's economic ministry said industrial output fell 0.9% on the month in June in adjusted terms. The European debt crisis hurt both Northern and Southern European economies, raising the probability of quantitative easing from ECB.

    • Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Japan Stood Pat

    As expected, The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its key interest rate on hold at 3.5%, citing inflation remained "low" and the pace of the global economy became slower.

    The Bank of Japan left interest rates and its policy stance unchanged Thursday, reiterating its commitment to powerful monetary easing, but taking no further action to achieve its inflation target of 1%. BOJ maintained its interest rates in the range of zero to 0.1%, with the size of its asset-purchase program unchanged at 70 trillion yen ($89.3 billion).

    Top Stories to Watch This Week

    • Euro zone and Japanese GDP

    Analysts forecast the Q2 GDP growth in Japan will slow to 0.6% and Euro zone will contract again.

    • Inflation in the US, Euro zone, UK and Canada

    Consumer Price Indices in the US, Euro zone, UK and Canada are expected to rise moderately. Most economists believe that the inflation pressures in all the countries are alleviated as the global economies slow down. The central banks will have more room to ease monetary policies.

    • US Retail Sales

    Retail sales, a measure of US domestic consumption, are expected to grow by 0.3% in July.

    Weekly Performance Summary

    The portfolios had small losses last week as a result of the negative performance of bonds and real estates.

    Table 1: ETF Performance

    Asset Class Return  Last Week ReturnMTD ReturnYTD Return
    Equities     
     SPYUS Large Cap1.07%2.27%13.30%
     IWMUS Small Cap1.67%2.00%9.24%
     EFADeveloped Market Equity1.73%3.74%7.17%
     VWOEmerging Market Equity2.06%3.97%8.87%
    Dividend Assets     
     IYRUS REIT-1.99%-1.45%15.49%
     AMJUS Energy Master Trust0.48%0.40%4.39%
    Commodities     
     GLDGold1.05%0.44%3.41%
     GSGCommodity1.64%4.03%1.67%
    Bonds     
     HYGUS High Yield-0.27%0.29%6.49%
     AGGUS Bond-0.11%-0.44%3.04%
     TIPUS Treasury Inflation Indexed Bond-0.57%-0.72%4.97%
     IEFUS Treasury Bond-0.39%-1.04%3.45%
     TLTUS Long Term Treasury Bond-1.35%-2.88%5.34%
     SHYUS Short Term Bond-0.05%-0.08%0.15%

    Table 2: Portfolio Performance

     

     

    Portfolio SolutionsAsset Allocation
    (%Risk Asset
    /%Bond)
    WTDMTD
    (1 day delay)
    YTD
    (1 day delay)
    1-YR
    (as of 12/11)
    5-YR
    (as of 12/11)
    10-YR
    (as of 12/11)
    Aggressive80/20-0.8%-0.7%4.2%12.4%16.4%16.1%
    Moderate60/40-0.6%-0.6%3.6%12.4%14.8%14.4%
    Conservative40/60-0.6%-0.6%3.5%12.5%13.7%12.8%
    Defensive20/80-0.5%-0.7%4.0%13.2%12.5%11.1%
    Concentrated PortfolioTwo ETFs-0.8%-0.5%7.1%12.1%19.1%19.3%
    S&P 500 Index 1.1%2.3%13.3%2.0%-0.3%2.9%
    Barclays Bond Index -0.1%-0.4%3.0%10.3%6.9%5.8%
    CPI Inflation    3.2%2.3%2.5%

    For more information about the multi-asset investment strategies, please visit allseasoninvesting.com.

    About ALL SEASON INVESTING: All Season Investing is an investment blog, created in December 2011 to offer investors insights and researches on how to implement a dynamic multi asset allocation strategy with the low-cost index funds or ETFs to achieve consistent returns while limiting downside risks through all stages of a market cycle.

    Disclosure: I am long SPY, IWM, EFA, VWO, IYR, AMJ, GLD, GSG, HYG, JNK, AGG, TIP, IEF, TLT, VNQ.

    Aug 13 8:45 PM | Link | Comment!
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