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Herr Hansa

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  • BlackBerry resumes trading, shares at $8.92 [View news story]
    It does appear nearly more like an attempt to raise the floor, rather than a serious level. Also appears highly suspect with the delay on news announcement Friday. Several analysts pointed out that BBRY executives should have asked for an earlier trading halt, prior to the news release. Now the news release appears to allow Watsa and some pension funds the ability to monetize a purchase at a lower level.

    If more bids come in, then Watsa can make even more gains. It will be interesting to see what Lazaridis and friends come up with for a bid. Seagate once stopped being a public company in order to refocus the company, then returned to the markets. Longer term I think that direction would be the most likely outcome.
    Sep 23 09:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry slips; Pac Crest notes purchase commitments [View news story]
    It almost seems that Heins was brought in as an ax man, simply to cut down the company, and return it to being a niche. BBRY had fewer employees a few years ago, despite a much smaller user base. At this point, unless Heins can show profits before the annual meeting, he better be practicing his running skills.
    Sep 21 07:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Baird: BlackBerry burned through $1/share in cash in FQ2 [View news story]
    DVL is right in this LYogi. If you just look at the real estate and office equipment, those cover the current valuation. It's like the ran an office park, and did no other business. Of course, considering the negative sentiment, it seems many would like to see that.

    The true value of the device business is in the conversion of 70 million end users. Figure out what 70 million users is worth to AAPL or Samsung, cut a quarter to half off that on inability to shift BBRY users to your platform, then you have a way to value that business. That is why the vultures keep circling.
    Sep 21 06:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Baird: BlackBerry burned through $1/share in cash in FQ2 [View news story]
    The options players, and those who lost out years ago on share declines, are doing the opposite. They are "pumping" the downward news. It should be obvious there is a tug-o-war going on between options players on both side of share price levels.

    Until the options volume declines sharply, this is a highly speculative stock to hold. As always, I do not recommend buying, nor holding, shares in BBRY. The volatility is not for the average investor.
    Sep 21 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baird: BlackBerry burned through $1/share in cash in FQ2 [View news story]
    Honestly David653, I think you would have done a better job in that position. Of course, it now appears that nearly anyone would have done a better job at marketing, because marketing was almost absent. About all the BBRY marketing team managed to do was get the BB10 devices at the carriers, and even that was not done cleanly.
    Sep 21 06:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baird: BlackBerry burned through $1/share in cash in FQ2 [View news story]
    The Z10 was for The Verge, WSJ, Gizmodo, and Engadget. Granted it is a nice device, but without another piece of fruit on the back, it was never going to get a nice review in the press.

    The other issue is the same problem affecting Windows Phone, in that end users need to figure out how to use their smartphone. No simple sea of icons upon which people could scroll and touch. I've watched people with new BB10 devices; they appear frustrated the first day or two, then as they spend more time with the device, they move blazing fast through tasks. BBRY should offer a two week test, no questions asked, return policy. Windows Phone (MSFT) should do the same. Otherwise most end users will stick with the simple icons they already know how to use.
    Sep 21 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baird: BlackBerry burned through $1/share in cash in FQ2 [View news story]
    What happened is a head of marketing who is a complete disaster. I had doubts when they pulled him in. It seemed like his main qualification was that he could talk to the carriers. Well, as we have seen, relying upon the carriers to push your products is a non-starter.
    Sep 21 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry slips; Pac Crest notes purchase commitments [View news story]
    It's a bit funny, in an ironic way, to see my comment above (BBRY really need to trim the fat and cut expenses) move to the forefront of company activity. However, I am not satisfied with the timeline of the company, now targeting Q1 2015 as the time of saving a Billion on expenses. Certainly not a good outlook for 2014.

    I still think shares are massively speculative, and the options plays vastly dominate trading volume. As always, I do not recommend investors hold, nor purchase shares. Even when playing options, there is a great possibility of getting it wrong, especially on weeklies.

    CEO Heins needs to move much more quickly. Amongst the cuts of employees, he badly needs to dump the CMO in a hurry. If they want to continue to cater to business clients, then a rugged (and maybe waterproof) smartphone needs to be developed. Make a MilSpec smartphone, and release a version for active consumers. Push the lifestyle, and by that I don't meaning boring off people wearing suits. We've seen the progression to niche, and many people have suggested that, so BBRY needs to act more like a niche company.
    Sep 21 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tankers seen having worst year since 1997 on Africa oil slowdown [View news story]
    Frontline 2012 is more financially stable. At this point I have trouble recommending any shipping companies, other than Ship Finance (SFL). I do continue to hold shares in FRO, but I think it is a bit speculative until late 2014 early 2015. On a very long time line shipping is not bad, especially at whatever point in time dividends return. The problem is that this may take a couple more years.

    Natural Gas shipping is one of the few sectors still doing well. There should not be any oversupply issues until at least 2015. I have held shares in GLNG and GLMP for several years.
    Sep 14 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa, BofA, and H-P dropped from DJIA [View news story]
    Manufacturing is less important in the United States after the official changes to how GDP is measured. Financial engineering (GS) and consumer products (NKE) are now considered to be more important aspects of the economy.
    Sep 10 02:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple announces iPhone 5C; 16GB version to sell for $99 with contract [View news story]
    I suggested color iPhones as a future direction in an article I wrote 15 months ago, and at the time there was a great deal of doubt about my prediction. Tim Cook is indeed the master of the supply chain.
    Sep 10 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marc Faber says there are three reasons a big market correction is coming [View news story]
    Yes, though not expected to happen quickly. This can happen over a couple years. Probably no major catalyst until a new head of the Federal Reserve is in place.

    Current Fed asset purchases are no longer having an affect on markets, other than causing some distortions. Big money has already moved away from single family dwellings and into multi-family dwellings. Other flows have headed towards Europe. Emerging markets will have a couple years to turn around, though I think some of the best opportunities will be found there.
    Sep 4 06:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tankers seen having worst year since 1997 on Africa oil slowdown [View news story]
    FRO is not taking the rates that Clarkson's is quoting. Fredriksen would be more likely to place some vessels in lay-up before going for those rates. Mostly much smaller companies are taking those rates to maintain cash flow, though at some point we will see more smaller players fail. That will remove some of the fleet as ships are idled due to financial disputes.

    Suez issues would help VLCC rates, though only on a temporary basis. Longer term we need to see some continued economic improvements. The supply of vessels remains an issue, and scrapping activity would need to increase to prompt an improvement in rates. Keep in mind not all vessels are available on the spot market, and longer term charters tend to be bringing in better rates at the moment.
    Sep 3 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley delays upgrade to BB10 [View news story]
    Certain potential buyers would be far more interested in converting the user base of 70+ million users. IBM previously showed interest in the device management and network infrastructure. There is no buying to liquidate idea, but there is interest in converting existing users.
    Aug 30 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Can It Still Explode Higher? [View article]
    Lack of new sales is not the same as subscriber decline. Market share does not describe the user base. The question for BBRY, and many analysts, is why are so many BB5, BB6, and BB7 users not yet upgrading to BB10? What is it that keeps those older users on older devices? Contracts may explain some of them, especially that many carriers do not make it easy to move to a newer device prior to the contracts expiring.

    I'm surprised by your low valuations on their real estate and holdings of office equipment. Given the rise in values of commercial property in Canada, I think you are way off in that number. However, this is the idea of liquidation, and not the idea of some other company buying the business.

    I don't agree with you on the user base falling below 45 million, though I will leave that as a difference of opinion with you. I don't feel like writing an article in a reply, nor do I have the time at the moment to write more. Basically, we disagree. The smartphone market is still growing, and while BBRY has failed to grow as fast as smartphone adoption, the available research data does not indicate as fast a turn-over rate as you suggest. I've noted this in several of my older articles. Retention rate on previous BlackBerry phones was better than 60%, though again the question now is what is holding back upgrades to BB10.

    BES may be one change that is keeping users on older devices. BBRY recently introduced another BB7 device. If we see better sales of the older OS device, then that may be enough evidence to point out this as an issue.

    Your numbers analysis suggests you are doing straddles. Best of luck to you.
    Aug 30 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment