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Herr Hansa

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  • Baird: BlackBerry burned through $1/share in cash in FQ2 [View news story]
    What happened is a head of marketing who is a complete disaster. I had doubts when they pulled him in. It seemed like his main qualification was that he could talk to the carriers. Well, as we have seen, relying upon the carriers to push your products is a non-starter.
    Sep 21 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry slips; Pac Crest notes purchase commitments [View news story]
    It's a bit funny, in an ironic way, to see my comment above (BBRY really need to trim the fat and cut expenses) move to the forefront of company activity. However, I am not satisfied with the timeline of the company, now targeting Q1 2015 as the time of saving a Billion on expenses. Certainly not a good outlook for 2014.

    I still think shares are massively speculative, and the options plays vastly dominate trading volume. As always, I do not recommend investors hold, nor purchase shares. Even when playing options, there is a great possibility of getting it wrong, especially on weeklies.

    CEO Heins needs to move much more quickly. Amongst the cuts of employees, he badly needs to dump the CMO in a hurry. If they want to continue to cater to business clients, then a rugged (and maybe waterproof) smartphone needs to be developed. Make a MilSpec smartphone, and release a version for active consumers. Push the lifestyle, and by that I don't meaning boring off people wearing suits. We've seen the progression to niche, and many people have suggested that, so BBRY needs to act more like a niche company.
    Sep 21 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tankers seen having worst year since 1997 on Africa oil slowdown [View news story]
    Frontline 2012 is more financially stable. At this point I have trouble recommending any shipping companies, other than Ship Finance (SFL). I do continue to hold shares in FRO, but I think it is a bit speculative until late 2014 early 2015. On a very long time line shipping is not bad, especially at whatever point in time dividends return. The problem is that this may take a couple more years.

    Natural Gas shipping is one of the few sectors still doing well. There should not be any oversupply issues until at least 2015. I have held shares in GLNG and GLMP for several years.
    Sep 14 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa, BofA, and H-P dropped from DJIA [View news story]
    Manufacturing is less important in the United States after the official changes to how GDP is measured. Financial engineering (GS) and consumer products (NKE) are now considered to be more important aspects of the economy.
    Sep 10 02:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple announces iPhone 5C; 16GB version to sell for $99 with contract [View news story]
    I suggested color iPhones as a future direction in an article I wrote 15 months ago, and at the time there was a great deal of doubt about my prediction. Tim Cook is indeed the master of the supply chain.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Sep 10 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marc Faber says there are three reasons a big market correction is coming [View news story]
    Yes, though not expected to happen quickly. This can happen over a couple years. Probably no major catalyst until a new head of the Federal Reserve is in place.

    Current Fed asset purchases are no longer having an affect on markets, other than causing some distortions. Big money has already moved away from single family dwellings and into multi-family dwellings. Other flows have headed towards Europe. Emerging markets will have a couple years to turn around, though I think some of the best opportunities will be found there.
    Sep 4 06:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tankers seen having worst year since 1997 on Africa oil slowdown [View news story]
    FRO is not taking the rates that Clarkson's is quoting. Fredriksen would be more likely to place some vessels in lay-up before going for those rates. Mostly much smaller companies are taking those rates to maintain cash flow, though at some point we will see more smaller players fail. That will remove some of the fleet as ships are idled due to financial disputes.

    Suez issues would help VLCC rates, though only on a temporary basis. Longer term we need to see some continued economic improvements. The supply of vessels remains an issue, and scrapping activity would need to increase to prompt an improvement in rates. Keep in mind not all vessels are available on the spot market, and longer term charters tend to be bringing in better rates at the moment.
    Sep 3 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley delays upgrade to BB10 [View news story]
    Certain potential buyers would be far more interested in converting the user base of 70+ million users. IBM previously showed interest in the device management and network infrastructure. There is no buying to liquidate idea, but there is interest in converting existing users.
    Aug 30 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Can It Still Explode Higher? [View article]
    Lack of new sales is not the same as subscriber decline. Market share does not describe the user base. The question for BBRY, and many analysts, is why are so many BB5, BB6, and BB7 users not yet upgrading to BB10? What is it that keeps those older users on older devices? Contracts may explain some of them, especially that many carriers do not make it easy to move to a newer device prior to the contracts expiring.

    I'm surprised by your low valuations on their real estate and holdings of office equipment. Given the rise in values of commercial property in Canada, I think you are way off in that number. However, this is the idea of liquidation, and not the idea of some other company buying the business.

    I don't agree with you on the user base falling below 45 million, though I will leave that as a difference of opinion with you. I don't feel like writing an article in a reply, nor do I have the time at the moment to write more. Basically, we disagree. The smartphone market is still growing, and while BBRY has failed to grow as fast as smartphone adoption, the available research data does not indicate as fast a turn-over rate as you suggest. I've noted this in several of my older articles. Retention rate on previous BlackBerry phones was better than 60%, though again the question now is what is holding back upgrades to BB10.

    BES may be one change that is keeping users on older devices. BBRY recently introduced another BB7 device. If we see better sales of the older OS device, then that may be enough evidence to point out this as an issue.

    Your numbers analysis suggests you are doing straddles. Best of luck to you.
    Aug 30 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Can It Still Explode Higher? [View article]
    No offense taken. When I question a statement, I hope to gain more clarity and insight on the position one is taking.

    It's an interesting idea, though keep in mind NOK has been borrowing money for years, and that they have a junk credit rating. BBRY on the other hand is not borrowing money. Quite likely NOK could make use of the cash position of BBRY, though I think some form of merger would be complicated. Perhaps a strategic agreement could benefit both companies. A buy-out or merger would entail more charges on financial statements, likely taking more than four quarters to work out and complete.

    I think where BBRY needs to be is with a greatly reduced workforce. Heins is doing that, but somewhat slowly. Those redundancies are part of the charges on financial statements. Since this process of downsizing is not yet done, we can reasonably expect the next financial report to not be that great. Heins may just be in the company to be the ax man. Once staff reductions are complete, and all BB10 products in this cycle are rolled out, it would not surprise me to see him step down.
    Aug 30 01:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Can It Still Explode Higher? [View article]
    When? What date will they close their doors and throw their hands in the air in surrender?

    Also, since you are so confident in your proclamation, when will Sony, LG, HTC, Motorola and numerous other smaller smartphone companies give up on smartphones? Will any of them quit before BBRY?
    Aug 29 06:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Can It Still Explode Higher? [View article]
    You guys are over-thinking this. Take a look at the value in converting a user base of near 70 million users. What is the profit potential in 70 million Android sales, or 70 million more iPhone sales. Factor that, then you can see why someone would dismantle the company. Other than that, there is the network run by the company, which has a different value. I question the credibility of people who only look at the liquidation value, especially that real estate and office equipment hold a higher value than the current market cap; it's almost like BBRY operated an office park, but did no other business.
    Aug 29 06:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Can It Still Explode Higher? [View article]
    About 245 million shares are institutionally held out of about 524 million total shares. Despite what you call "massive volume", the daily volume has little to no relationship to the total number of shares held institutionally. This is why we have 13F filings and reporting requirements. Those will show you changes amongst institutional investors. In other words, you're guessing.

    Considering that short interest is over 29% of the float, and days to cover is near double digits, we could just as easily guess that short covering generated the high daily volume activity. The larger institutional shorts tend to make moves sooner than retail investors. Taking a look at flows in options trading would tell you far more than guessing. When this many bets pile into short positions, volatility can be very surprising to some. Until we see the open interest change dramatically, figuring out what strike prices to bet on will involve some luck. Personally I would rather not take on that sort of risk, though I wish you luck with that.
    Aug 26 01:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Can It Still Explode Higher? [View article]
    So will we see that in the next 13F filed by Prem Watsa?
    Aug 25 11:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Can It Still Explode Higher? [View article]
    The extremely simplistic idea behind that over-stated, and often stated, premise, is that in the future there will only be two companies making handsets. Those two are expected to be Apple and Samsung. If this was true, then Motorola, Sony, LG, and HTC would be more likely to stop making devices sooner than BlackBerry. This simplistic logic does drive some short bets. Statements about any of these companies liquidating and disappearing are pure fantasy.
    Aug 25 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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