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Herr Hansa  

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  • Strategic buyers express interest in BlackBerry - Reuters [View news story]
    Watsa is at 17.00 a share average. The deal where he uses his shares as part of the purchase gives him more than 9.00 a share in value. The trick for him would be conversion after privatization. Basically, he does not stand to take a loss, if he can get the deal he wants.

    Given that 17.00 a share average, I think he would fight a hostile take-over. Around 45% to 50% of BBRY shares are institutionally held. I don't think Watsa's 10% will have that much sway over other major shareholders, given the lack of backing. Finally, there is Lazaridis, whom we know to be making plans of a buyout, but we do not know the partners he has lined up.

    Valuation speculations all over the place will keep options players very busy over the next few weeks. Some options players will profit, while others will take losses. BBRY is very much an option gamblers stock.
    Oct 6, 2013. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strategic buyers express interest in BlackBerry - Reuters [View news story]
    Lyogi, it appears to me that you are wildly optimistic. I think if any offer gets above $12 a share, it would be great for shareholders. I don't see it ever hitting the rumor numbers of the past, when Samsung supposedly offered $22 a share. You are quite likely the only individual I have ever seen place that high a value on BBRY in the last two years. I hope you are not basing your investment hopes on really hitting that valuation. Good luck.
    Oct 6, 2013. 03:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strategic buyers express interest in BlackBerry - Reuters [View news story]
    Tough to find a valuation over $6B currently. A consortium of SAP getting the network operations, and Google getting the patent portfolio (allowing cross-licensing for SAP), would be the only other likely match-up I could imagine here. You are far more optimistic than I am with this.
    Oct 5, 2013. 03:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Strategic buyers express interest in BlackBerry - Reuters [View news story]
    I'm not convinced that Cisco would be a good match for the company. SAP is a different story, as they were one of the first major companies to show corporate solutions on BB10, though this implies a business only focus.

    http://reut.rs/15SFja5

    Google is the interesting name to come up in this. When the Nortel patents came up for auction, Google fooled around with their own bidding process. Getting BBRY would be a way to go back in to a portion of Nortel patents they missed. Motorola was bought largely for the patent portfolio. Add together the Motorola and (failed) Nortel bids, and you can find a possible target range for GOOG to bid for BBRY.
    Oct 5, 2013. 02:53 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry resumes trading, shares at $8.92 [View news story]
    It does appear nearly more like an attempt to raise the floor, rather than a serious level. Also appears highly suspect with the delay on news announcement Friday. Several analysts pointed out that BBRY executives should have asked for an earlier trading halt, prior to the news release. Now the news release appears to allow Watsa and some pension funds the ability to monetize a purchase at a lower level.

    If more bids come in, then Watsa can make even more gains. It will be interesting to see what Lazaridis and friends come up with for a bid. Seagate once stopped being a public company in order to refocus the company, then returned to the markets. Longer term I think that direction would be the most likely outcome.
    Sep 23, 2013. 09:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry slips; Pac Crest notes purchase commitments [View news story]
    It almost seems that Heins was brought in as an ax man, simply to cut down the company, and return it to being a niche. BBRY had fewer employees a few years ago, despite a much smaller user base. At this point, unless Heins can show profits before the annual meeting, he better be practicing his running skills.
    Sep 21, 2013. 07:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Baird: BlackBerry burned through $1/share in cash in FQ2 [View news story]
    DVL is right in this LYogi. If you just look at the real estate and office equipment, those cover the current valuation. It's like the ran an office park, and did no other business. Of course, considering the negative sentiment, it seems many would like to see that.

    The true value of the device business is in the conversion of 70 million end users. Figure out what 70 million users is worth to AAPL or Samsung, cut a quarter to half off that on inability to shift BBRY users to your platform, then you have a way to value that business. That is why the vultures keep circling.
    Sep 21, 2013. 06:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Baird: BlackBerry burned through $1/share in cash in FQ2 [View news story]
    The options players, and those who lost out years ago on share declines, are doing the opposite. They are "pumping" the downward news. It should be obvious there is a tug-o-war going on between options players on both side of share price levels.

    Until the options volume declines sharply, this is a highly speculative stock to hold. As always, I do not recommend buying, nor holding, shares in BBRY. The volatility is not for the average investor.
    Sep 21, 2013. 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baird: BlackBerry burned through $1/share in cash in FQ2 [View news story]
    Honestly David653, I think you would have done a better job in that position. Of course, it now appears that nearly anyone would have done a better job at marketing, because marketing was almost absent. About all the BBRY marketing team managed to do was get the BB10 devices at the carriers, and even that was not done cleanly.
    Sep 21, 2013. 06:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baird: BlackBerry burned through $1/share in cash in FQ2 [View news story]
    The Z10 was for The Verge, WSJ, Gizmodo, and Engadget. Granted it is a nice device, but without another piece of fruit on the back, it was never going to get a nice review in the press.

    The other issue is the same problem affecting Windows Phone, in that end users need to figure out how to use their smartphone. No simple sea of icons upon which people could scroll and touch. I've watched people with new BB10 devices; they appear frustrated the first day or two, then as they spend more time with the device, they move blazing fast through tasks. BBRY should offer a two week test, no questions asked, return policy. Windows Phone (MSFT) should do the same. Otherwise most end users will stick with the simple icons they already know how to use.
    Sep 21, 2013. 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baird: BlackBerry burned through $1/share in cash in FQ2 [View news story]
    What happened is a head of marketing who is a complete disaster. I had doubts when they pulled him in. It seemed like his main qualification was that he could talk to the carriers. Well, as we have seen, relying upon the carriers to push your products is a non-starter.
    Sep 21, 2013. 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry slips; Pac Crest notes purchase commitments [View news story]
    It's a bit funny, in an ironic way, to see my comment above (BBRY really need to trim the fat and cut expenses) move to the forefront of company activity. However, I am not satisfied with the timeline of the company, now targeting Q1 2015 as the time of saving a Billion on expenses. Certainly not a good outlook for 2014.

    I still think shares are massively speculative, and the options plays vastly dominate trading volume. As always, I do not recommend investors hold, nor purchase shares. Even when playing options, there is a great possibility of getting it wrong, especially on weeklies.

    CEO Heins needs to move much more quickly. Amongst the cuts of employees, he badly needs to dump the CMO in a hurry. If they want to continue to cater to business clients, then a rugged (and maybe waterproof) smartphone needs to be developed. Make a MilSpec smartphone, and release a version for active consumers. Push the lifestyle, and by that I don't meaning boring off people wearing suits. We've seen the progression to niche, and many people have suggested that, so BBRY needs to act more like a niche company.
    Sep 21, 2013. 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tankers seen having worst year since 1997 on Africa oil slowdown [View news story]
    Frontline 2012 is more financially stable. At this point I have trouble recommending any shipping companies, other than Ship Finance (SFL). I do continue to hold shares in FRO, but I think it is a bit speculative until late 2014 early 2015. On a very long time line shipping is not bad, especially at whatever point in time dividends return. The problem is that this may take a couple more years.

    Natural Gas shipping is one of the few sectors still doing well. There should not be any oversupply issues until at least 2015. I have held shares in GLNG and GLMP for several years.
    Sep 14, 2013. 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa, BofA, and H-P dropped from DJIA [View news story]
    Manufacturing is less important in the United States after the official changes to how GDP is measured. Financial engineering (GS) and consumer products (NKE) are now considered to be more important aspects of the economy.
    Sep 10, 2013. 02:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple announces iPhone 5C; 16GB version to sell for $99 with contract [View news story]
    I suggested color iPhones as a future direction in an article I wrote 15 months ago, and at the time there was a great deal of doubt about my prediction. Tim Cook is indeed the master of the supply chain.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Sep 10, 2013. 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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