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Herr Hansa

 
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  • BlackBerry: Shut It Down [View article]
    Unfortunately some become negatively emotionally blinded by rage, which drives a short bias, or a desire to see failure. Once again, I ask this question: name the month and year BlackBerry no longer exists?

    Emotions should be reserved for kittens, puppies, and someone significant in your life. Emotions have absolutely no place in investing; the companies don't care and are emotionless to shareholders.
    Jul 29 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Shut It Down [View article]
    Yet the Windows Phone user base remains smaller than the BlackBerry user base. Also, HTML5 will place web developers above programmers, at a lower cost basis, which will solve one profit issue amongst app developers. There will soon be even more platforms, as the Firefox Mobile OS gets released into some markets, and Samsung continues to develop Tizen. Even former Nokia employees are developing a previous Nokia OS, with backing from Nokia. Mobile web eliminates a need for dedicated apps, much like web content is operating system agnostic on laptops and desktops. Game developers will stick with apps, but there will be fewer reasons to continue app development as mobile internet improves. Apps were an attempt to control content distribution, but as we have seen with the rise of the internet, those attempting to control content will only be able to control a small subset of content. Steve Jobs mentioned this years ago in an interview with Wired magazine, prior to the arrival of Google. There will be fewer reasons for app developers to be exclusive on one platform.
    Jul 29 02:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Obama's NYT interview: Obama played down claims TransCanada's (TRP) Keystone XL pipeline would generate large numbers of jobs. "The most realistic estimates are this might create maybe 2,000 jobs during the construction of the pipeline...and then after that we're talking about somewhere between 50 and 100 jobs." Obama also disputed that the line would cause gasoline prices to fall, saying it could do the opposite because it would lead to increased exports. Obama will decide whether to approve Keystone based on how much carbon would be added to the atmosphere because of it, but he isn't certain Canada is doing enough to resolve concerns about pollution. (Interview transcript[View news story]
    Refiners get the oil. Refined products are shipped to other countries at a profit. Money goes into US economy through refineries.

    South American countries, regardless of political make-up, want trade partners. If they need refined products (not just gasoline), then they will have an incentive to do business with the United States. Venezuela hates the US, but still ships Orinoco heavy crude there to be refined. Citgo is an example of a Venezuelan company in the United States. Even if some of them truly "hate" the US, they still want to do business.
    Jul 28 11:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Obama's NYT interview: Obama played down claims TransCanada's (TRP) Keystone XL pipeline would generate large numbers of jobs. "The most realistic estimates are this might create maybe 2,000 jobs during the construction of the pipeline...and then after that we're talking about somewhere between 50 and 100 jobs." Obama also disputed that the line would cause gasoline prices to fall, saying it could do the opposite because it would lead to increased exports. Obama will decide whether to approve Keystone based on how much carbon would be added to the atmosphere because of it, but he isn't certain Canada is doing enough to resolve concerns about pollution. (Interview transcript[View news story]
    Balance of trade. Profits for refining companies. Increase in the dependence of South America on supplies of refined products.
    Jul 28 10:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Obama's NYT interview: Obama played down claims TransCanada's (TRP) Keystone XL pipeline would generate large numbers of jobs. "The most realistic estimates are this might create maybe 2,000 jobs during the construction of the pipeline...and then after that we're talking about somewhere between 50 and 100 jobs." Obama also disputed that the line would cause gasoline prices to fall, saying it could do the opposite because it would lead to increased exports. Obama will decide whether to approve Keystone based on how much carbon would be added to the atmosphere because of it, but he isn't certain Canada is doing enough to resolve concerns about pollution. (Interview transcript[View news story]
    http://bit.ly/pvlWQ9

    A really simple way to look at this is that the money supply needs to increase as a function of population increase. The Federal Reserve and the US Treasury do not function like the personal checkbooks of individuals. The system survives on demand and trust.
    Jul 28 07:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Adam Posen, formerly of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, believes the U.K. and the U.S. should stop encouraging homeownership. "Overinvesting in bricks and mortar is a losing proposition for the households involved – but also for the economy as a whole," Posen writes in the FT. It distorts savings behavior, discourages labor mobility, and "perpetuates inherited wealth," while "housing booms and busts...wreak the most havoc on economies." [View news story]
    Quite likely the mortgage interest tax deduction will be the next compromise point in reworking the tax system. However, I don't think it is as big an influence as some make it seem. Fluctuations of housing values, and functional borrowing rates appear to have more influence on housing markets. Individual (one property) home owners are being replaced by much larger investors. As home ownership becomes more of an investment vehicle to produce yield, instead of just somewhere to live, the dynamics of housing markets change.
    Jul 28 07:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A merger to create the world's largest advertising company is essentially done between Omnicom (OMC) and Publicis Groupe (PUBGY.OB), according to various reports. The combined $30B company would be a merger of equals, however, with no premium to current share prices -- though size should allow it to negotiate better ad rates and retain clients more easily. [View news story]
    The Martin Agency handles Geico, amongst other big clients. I think it helps to look at the talent at individual shops, which provides a look at who attracts the clients. So if people leave OMC or Publicis, we can look at WPP and IPG to see where people may land, and whether clients may eventually follow. Many major advertising contracts are subject to annual revue. This may also be a great time for WPP and IPG to pick up small independent shops with digital talent, because their rivals will be busy with a merger.
    Jul 28 06:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Shut It Down [View article]
    Frank, there is a parallel with PALM, but not one most of the negative comments reflect. When Palm was very popular, there were numerous "app" developers. Many were generating micro-revenues, with a few more popular developers gaining the bulk of "app" revenues. Palm liked those markets, because it created a need for more devices. Eventually the market for portable personal assistants reached saturation, so the direction was then to go more into the mobile phone market.

    When we look at the current smartphone app development cycle, we find much the same situation that happened with Palm Pilot developers. Many failed to monetize their efforts. A few of the more popular developers bring in the most revenues. Games are now the most popular apps, by a very wide margin. Both iOS and Android app developers help sell hardware, though they do not directly benefit from hardware sales.

    http://bit.ly/K2DoYf

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    The larger companies can monetize app development. Your idea that they will move across platforms to attract users indicates one possible direction. The other direction was shown quite successfully by The Financial Times, who dumped the app store and made a very successful mobile web replacement. As the FT discovered, many companies figured out how to monetize the mobile web, eliminating programming expenses in exchange for web development expenses. Now with web developers charging less than programmers, we may see more of that, especially as screen dimensions increase on smartphones. Dynamic websites are now becoming much more common, and viewable across many devices, without need of an app. Games will likely always be apps, but quite a bit of mobile content can be delivered through the mobile web. Apps have already peaked, and HTML5 is now rising in importance.
    Jul 28 06:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A merger to create the world's largest advertising company is essentially done between Omnicom (OMC) and Publicis Groupe (PUBGY.OB), according to various reports. The combined $30B company would be a merger of equals, however, with no premium to current share prices -- though size should allow it to negotiate better ad rates and retain clients more easily. [View news story]
    This would appear to really leave IPG far behind in advertising. However, I would expect some culling of executives, if regulators allow the merger, so IPG may pick up some talent.
    Jul 27 06:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Welcome to the sick-onomy: 69% of the jobs created in Q2 came from the three lowest paying sectors, and the majority appear to have been part-time. With inflation low, U.S. families are beginning, on average, to scratch their way back - but not in the sectors where most of the jobs are being created. Federal policies attempting to cure inequality are exacerbating it, according to a WSJ editorial. [View news story]
    When exemptions to health care laws can be found by using part-time and temporary workers, and other business expense benefits from the same practices, then it should be no surprise that the workforce is being molded in this manner.
    Jul 27 04:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Shut It Down [View article]
    In a business or fund structure, this would be an important consideration. That is not the situation here.
    Jul 27 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Shut It Down [View article]
    If you set it up as a certain business structure, then you can apportion holdings on the basis of liabilities and assets, which provides different calculations. At the present time there is no reason to do that with the account that includes shares of BBRY, amongst other holdings. This is why multi-year non-dividend paying holdings make sense in certain ways in the US.
    Jul 27 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Shut It Down [View article]
    There are different family holdings overseas in accounts subject to taxes in Luxembourg. The account with BBRY shares is subject to US tax laws. That's probably far more information than most people would be willing to disclose, and that is about as much detail as I want to give on this subject. Hopefully that answers your question.
    Jul 27 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Shut It Down [View article]
    wiesje, I'm not managing a fund with BBRY shares. Those shares are in my own personal account.
    Jul 27 03:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Shut It Down [View article]
    wiesje, he was talking about selling my shares. Can I take a deduction on my taxes when I don't sell my shares, but the share price is down from where I bought them?
    Jul 27 03:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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