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Herr Hansa

 
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  • BlackBerry: Shut It Down [View article]
    http://bit.ly/14Bm7kR

    There you go. The latest Annual Report is 235 pages. Knock yourself out, if you really want the figures.

    Supposing you were planning on shorting the company, what strike price would you target for September 2013?
    Jul 23 02:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Shut It Down [View article]
    I suppose that is the difference, I never have been "burned by that approach". I don't have a timeline of "next quarter" either.

    How often do any of the big institutional investors turn over major holdings? Just because fast turn-over of shares works for you does not mean it is the best choice for everyone. How does a company with a large cash position, and no debt, go bankrupt?

    BlackBerry currently are valued at less than real estate, office space, office equipment, and other hard asset holdings. It is like they owned an office park and actually did not do any business at all. Obviously the market thinks there is no relevance in having "only" 72 million user base. I'm sure several other companies would like to pick up such a "small" user base.

    I appreciate your concern and trying to warn me, and others, against holding shares. I'll be sure to nominate you for the Nobel prize in economics. ;)

    There are very few reasons to post on a BBRY news item, if you do not hold shares. Number one is that you have a short position. Number two is you know someone else with a short position, and you feel your post may help them. Number three is you are invested in AAPL or NOK, and you think a demise of BBRY would elevate your holdings. Number four is you do this to amuse yourself.

    What you fail to understand is that we, you and I, have a difference of opinion. I tend to think Prem Watsa is sharper than you, but I could be wrong, and it is very obvious this is my opinion. The fact that we have different opinions is exactly what makes a market. If we all thought the same, then investing would be extremely boring and the lack of volatility would make gains difficult. Over half the shares are held by institutional investors; why have they not dumped their shares? I check the 13Fs when they come out, and it is easy to see the positions.

    I have always recommended that others do not invest in BBRY. The high level of short interest that continues makes this a highly speculative investment. Again, do not invest in BBRY. I hope that is very clear. I'm not expecting anything for several quarters. The short interest will need to move somewhere else before we see any share price levels remotely indicating valuations. Until then shares will get punished each quarter, and those who guess right on short positions will be able to profit. BBRY is an extremely small portion of my overall holdings, so there is no "tie up cash" issue for me. I'm not speaking for anyone else, just my position.
    Jul 23 02:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • UBS (UBS): Q2 preliminary net profit +62.35% to 690M francs ($734.36M) vs consensus of 558M francs; UBS to take a charge of 865M francs on litigation, impairments and other provisions; reaches an agreement in principle with the U.S.'s Federal Housing Finance Agency in a lawsuit over soured mortgage investments, with the full cost still to be authorized. Pretax operating profit 1.02B francs. Net new money at flagship private banking arm 10.1B francs and 2.7B francs at U.S.-based brokerage; asset management outflows 2B francs. (PR[View news story]
    The turn-around and recovery continues. Disclosure: long UBS
    Jul 22 03:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Shut It Down [View article]
    Unlike small investors, he doesn't count paper losses. Watsa would book a loss in the event he sold shares at a loss; he has yet to do that. There is a chance you could be much smarter than Prem Watsa, though I doubt you would be posting here if that was true. Over 18 months ago he stated that it he expected the turn-around at the company to take 3 to 5 years; a statement which caused a minor sell-off. Small investors rarely hold shares for over a year, yet the largest of investors hold shares for many years. There is no hero worship on my part, but why should I emulate the small guys, when the big guys have done so well? Again, you do not "lose" unless you purposefully sell at a loss.
    Jul 22 02:56 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Shut It Down [View article]
    http://bit.ly/HhRymb

    You wrote: "... BlackBerry has neither the raw might that the likes of Microsoft (MSFT) has to spur significant development efforts for its platform ..."

    All that "raw might" did not help the Microsoft Kin. If any consumer market was so simple that spending power could drive consumer direction, then the giant tech companies would not have bad earnings. How did MSFT do this past quarter?
    Jul 21 08:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Shut It Down [View article]
    When I see Prem Watsa unload his shares, then I am very likely to sell. I don't need the cash from the position to use in other investments. Of course the other issue is sleeping well at night, which I do quite well, though I can understand if investors dump shares due to worry. It is not worth losing sleep over any investment. Peace of mind and good rest are important.
    Jul 21 08:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Shut It Down [View article]
    Brilliant comment. I was thinking of Michael Dell when I read the article. Ha hah!

    We have hints of the problems within BlackBerry, such as dead-weight executives who have been there a long time, and effectively accomplish nothing. I really think Heinz needs to shake up the company more, cull the aging and ineffective herd, and get proper people in there to push for better carrier marketing. The past of BlackBerry was letting the carriers advertise and market, because the old coCEOs believed the devices sold themselves, and because it was cheaper marketing. I almost wonder if that growing cash pile is to buy back the company and take it private.
    Jul 21 08:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A leaked image appears to provide full specs for the BlackBerry A10 (BBRY -1.8%): the image indicates the A10 will sport Qualcomm's (QCOM) dual-core MSM8960 processor (same as the Z10), a 5" 720p display (many high-end Android phones now have 1080p displays), 16GB of storage, and an 8MP rear camera and 2MP front camera. BGR provided a few details about the A10 last week, while adding it's the only completely new BB10 phone set to launch in the remainder of 2013. [View news story]
    I'm not saying they are not nice smartphones. I still stick by the feeling that Windows Phone will fail to gain traction. Honestly, I like Windows Phone and Windows 8, but the interface idea, as elegant as it functions, will take some getting use to by the public.

    Ask the average consumer if they know what OIS stands for, or how it works. Obviously smartphones are eating alive the compact camera market. I even mentioned in one of my previous articles that Samsung is moving away from the compact camera market. Technology and specifications sell to engineers, enthusiasts, and tech geeks, which are a niche minority in the overall smartphone market. The colour of the cases is probably more of a selling feature to most Nokia buyers.

    If I believed that the latest Lumia would suddenly vault Nokia shares into the stratosphere, then I would be holding shares in the company. While I believe shares of NOK to be oversold, much like BBRY, it is not clear that either company will make sizable gains over the course of this quarter. I think the Lumia launch early last year was a failure, and the public is wary of Windows Phone, especially after the 7, 7.5 and 8 changes.
    Jul 17 01:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A leaked image appears to provide full specs for the BlackBerry A10 (BBRY -1.8%): the image indicates the A10 will sport Qualcomm's (QCOM) dual-core MSM8960 processor (same as the Z10), a 5" 720p display (many high-end Android phones now have 1080p displays), 16GB of storage, and an 8MP rear camera and 2MP front camera. BGR provided a few details about the A10 last week, while adding it's the only completely new BB10 phone set to launch in the remainder of 2013. [View news story]
    I've seen all that before. I have a cousin who works for Zeiss and a close friend who works for Nokia. Seriously, I wish Nokia the best of success in selling this, but re-creating the megapixel race in smartphones is not where I think the market needs to go in order to sell devices.

    The average consumer does not read the spec sheet, and quite often doesn't always know the significance of the numbers. Now with small screen devices, whether the HD capability is 1080P or 720P makes little difference. If the average end user thinks they can see a difference, and that difference is important, then they may jump at it. However, if the scaling on websites is too small, forcing constant pinch-to-zoom to read, then the extra pixels may be lost. In a similar way, more megapixels in a camera just will not be seen, because the end user is mostly viewing them on an HD smartphone, or transferring them to a large television, and sometimes sharing in social media.

    Regardless of the technology and marketing effort, if investors think spec chasing will win the hearts and minds of smartphone users, then they are being blinded by the technology. Just take a look at how people are using smartphones. Talk to some average non-geek, non-tech, smartphone end users about how they use their smartphones.

    Concerning cameras, just for example, a Nikon D800 and Nikon D3S have 36 MP and 12 MP, which seems like a huge difference. In practice the results are dependent upon a great many factors. Hold the D800 wrong or unsteady, and you will get big files that are not crisp. Use either on a tripod with a great lens, and the results will impress. Take a look at the LCD screen on the back of either camera, and the results would appear to be nearly identical. Upload to Facebook, or play image back on your television, and figuring out which image came from which camera will be guesswork. Print really huge and the D800 will give better results. So how many end users are going to make large prints from a 41 MP Nokia? I just do not feel that the new Nokia will be a runaway best seller by having more megapixels. Feel free to disagree with me.
    Jul 16 09:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A leaked image appears to provide full specs for the BlackBerry A10 (BBRY -1.8%): the image indicates the A10 will sport Qualcomm's (QCOM) dual-core MSM8960 processor (same as the Z10), a 5" 720p display (many high-end Android phones now have 1080p displays), 16GB of storage, and an 8MP rear camera and 2MP front camera. BGR provided a few details about the A10 last week, while adding it's the only completely new BB10 phone set to launch in the remainder of 2013. [View news story]
    Right, so the 41 MP is a marketing feature for the average clueless consumer. I'm sure it creates nice images, but few will dump a Nikon or Canon DSLR to get a Nokia.
    Jul 16 05:17 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A leaked image appears to provide full specs for the BlackBerry A10 (BBRY -1.8%): the image indicates the A10 will sport Qualcomm's (QCOM) dual-core MSM8960 processor (same as the Z10), a 5" 720p display (many high-end Android phones now have 1080p displays), 16GB of storage, and an 8MP rear camera and 2MP front camera. BGR provided a few details about the A10 last week, while adding it's the only completely new BB10 phone set to launch in the remainder of 2013. [View news story]
    What is the data usage like when sending 41 MP images?
    Jul 16 04:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 End Of June Significant Short Interest Rises [View article]
    Just from an advertising approach, I think the latest Windows Phone ads do a great job of making fun of the Samsung and Apple fanboys. I do know some trendy people (those who follow trends) who have gone from Apple to Samsung, though a few shifted back. That whole perceived luxury, or even perceived geek chic, sells quite a few devices. BlackBerry and Windows Phone are indeed alternatives, but the advertising needs to speak to that segment of the population, at least in the United States. Seriously, most smartphone buyers don't care about much other than covering the basics: play videos, access the internet, play games, play music, text message ... oh, and sometimes make an actual voice call. So the devices either need to be perceived as sexy or cool, or they need a large screen to give a "richer" experience.

    The other factor is something Nokia discovered many years ago with dumb phones. Basically, the idea of personalizing the device. On those old Nokia phones, there was an endless array of colour choices, or ways to customize the phone. Some people with smartphones now do that with covers, and there is a huge market in custom smartphone covers. When every phone looks like the same slab at a quick glance, then a cover makes a device more personal. This is all about vanity, and not about functions. The functions are now expected, and only notable in their absence.

    So what BlackBerry need to do are two things. The first is an even larger screen device, and that is indeed coming to market in the future. The second is letting a talented ad agency come up with a great campaign. Hopefully whomever becomes the new head of marketing will not try to micromanage the ad agency.
    Jul 14 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 End Of June Significant Short Interest Rises [View article]
    I took a look at the December 2012 StatsCounter and it shows BB OS at 13.25%. Keep in mind that StatsCounter is looking at devices accessing the internet, and the older BB7 and prior BlackBerry devices were really not that great getting onto websites. I will point out that I am still using a 9930. A friend of mine recently got a Q10, and it appears to me to be a much improved website experience.

    I tend to discard the "toy" comments, because that was the mantra of the previous coCEOs, and a terrible marketing campaign for the PlayBook. At least Heins did the right thing and stopped development there. I think licensing BB10 to a tablet maker would be a better move. Anyway, the point is that most smartphone users do not really need a smartphone, but they want a smartphone. Take a look at the top app statistics on Android and iOS, then you will see games as the leading apps. What that should tell you is that people have smartphones as entertainment devices.

    Obviously business users and those who want mobile e-mail are "serious" users. The problem, even as shown in BlackBerry numbers several quarters ago, is that business users are only a small segment of users. Consumer smartphone adoption has grown, and is growing, at a faster pace than business adoptions. BBRY is not going to make it just catering to business users, unless it only wants to be a very small niche player.

    BlackBerry must go after consumer to grow and generate revenues and profits. To do that the company needs to offer what consumers want, which is a great internet experience, and entertainment. I think they are getting there, but it will take a few more quarters.

    The BlackBerry Z10 is 1280 by 768 while the Q10 is 720 by 720 on the screen dimensions. When you see those numbers come up in StatsCounter, then you will see the impact of BB10 in numbers.

    Canada - http://bit.ly/1aCr7Jc - this year

    UK - http://bit.ly/1aCr5RE

    South Africa - http://bit.ly/1aCr7Jg

    The reality is that many people are still using feature phones. The monthly billing is a barrier for many people, who are not that likely to move into smartphones. The developed world is nearing a replacement market in smartphones, and many users keep phones for nearly two years. BlackBerry under the prior leadership caught a little of the fast growth segment, but annual growth worldwide is much slower now. Emerging markets are more price sensitive. The current leadership could have launched the Q5 much sooner.
    Jul 13 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 End Of June Significant Short Interest Rises [View article]
    Don't forget that StatsCounter shows the entire user base. There is no distinction in the statistics between BB10, BB7, or older BB OS. The trick for the company moving forward is to convert older BB OS users to BB10 devices. In 2010 there were barely 45 million total users. Since then the user base rose as high as 78 million, but then declined recently to about 72 million. BBRY has a larger user base than any Android vendor except Samsung.
    Jul 12 06:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seasonal oil tanker hiring orders rose to their highest seasonal level since 2007, as demand for crude cargoes accelerates before a projected surge in oil refining. Rates on the benchmark Saudi Arabia to Japan route reportedly have jumped fourfold to $24,939/day since late June, helping owners contend with VLCC earnings that averaged $6,838/day YTD, lowest since at least 1997. FRO +4.1% premarket. [View news story]
    There are still a large number of tankers moored in Singapore. While improving rates are a good sign, there is still much ground to cover before a full recovery.
    Jul 12 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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