"We can't just drill our way to lower gas prices when we consume 20% of the world's oil," President Obama says during his weekly address. Obama took the opportunity to advocate for his "all of the above" strategy, that relies less on foreign fossil fuels, and more on: "solar, wind, natural gas, biofuels, and more." [View news story]
I'm glad to finally see a discussion beginning in the US about natural gas. T. Boone Pickens has been pushing this idea for a while. Already the Port of Los Angeles has all their trucks and service vehicles running on natural gas. More of that type of progress would definitely help.
Bulls and bears continue to duke it out ahead of BlackBerry's (BBRY) Thursday's FQ4 report. Jefferies' Peter Misek (bull) recently argued on CNBC (video) BlackBerry could generate $4/share in EPS in 3-5 years even with modest market share and service revenue expectations. Opposing him was Nomura's Stuart Jeffrey (bear), who brought up the threat posed to service revenue from the likes of Good Technology. Today, National Bank's Kris Thompson, another bear, argued BlackBerry needs to price the Z10, which sells for well over $600 unsubsidized, more aggressively. [View news story]
Misek makes some excellent points, which I think few consider when evaluating the company. If a mobile device management company came along out of nowhere, targeting enterprise clients, and offered up an I.P.O., I would bet the valuation would instantly exceed BlackBerry, even without an established client base. The focus upon hardware device sales by other analysts indicates how little they actually look into what BlackBerry does as a company.
The Z10 does not need to be priced lower. What is needed is the release of the Q10, and more lower priced BB10 devices. Those will get released over the next few quarters. At the moment we cannot know how well BlackBerry will do with BB10, but it is amazing that all sales projections have been below what the "obsolete" BB7 devices were able to accomplish globally.
More on BlackBerry: Pac Crest's James Faucette, who has been bearish for a while, says checks indicate Feb. quarter Z10 shipments are in the 275K-325K range, below a consensus of 1M. He also forecasts just 1M-1.5M shipments for the May quarter, and thinks the Z10 is cannibalizing Bold 9900 sales. "There is no line of sight to profitability," Faucette declares. Meanwhile, Jefferies' Peter Misek remains bullish, and claims European and Middle Eastern Z10 launches have gone well. [View news story]
Note in the first article that Pacific Crest "remain sellers in the company", meaning they have short interest. The volume of options plays is massive at the moment. In order to justify that, and in some attempt to cash in on that, shares need to be talked down.
The only people commenting negatively fit one of the following: 1. own AAPL and want to talk down competitors 2. have a short position in BBRY 3. have friends with short positions in BBRY 4. are fanboy$ of other brands of electronics 5. lost money in the past on RIMM (BBRY) and have a vendetta against the company succeeding in the future 6. are trolls fishing for reactions
Analysts suggested that the prior BB6 and BB7 devices were obsolete, yet they continued to sell in significant numbers. Now some of the same analysts decry that BB10 devices might "cannibalize" BB7 sales. Good thing analysts don't run technology companies. ;)
Z10 returns are in-line with those of other high-end smartphones, BlackBerry (BBRY -7.8%) insists, addressing a report that returns were now exceeding sales at some top retailers. Meanwhile, Pac Crest's James Faucette, who has been bearish on BlackBerry for some time, estimates today the weekly sell-through rates for the Z10 at U.S. carriers are only around 60K units. He forecasts just 2.9M BB10 shipments for the May quarter, with half that total consisting of channel fill. [View news story]
Huge options volume today. This type of "news" and "analysis" allows some large options players to get out of their positions. What is amazing is the volume stacked in weeklies, as opposed to longer term options positions. Shoddy "studies" like these make me wonder if these people ever passed a statistics course in college. Of course this type of "analysis" is not illegal, not yet anyway. I suppose with the crackdown on insider information, some financial analysts feel that making it up as you go along is a better choice.
Anyway, until there is more of a line-up of new BB10 phones, we do not have an accurate gauge of sales potential. So for now the 77 million user base is the figure to watch in quarterly reports. I still do not recommend buying shares, simply due to the massive options volume concentrated in this company, which makes share price levels very volatile.
The bull market in stocks is going to run for the rest of the year, despite the market's already-outsized gains, says Byron Wien. “Over the past three months the pessimistic mood has changed to optimism,” Wien observes, and buying will continue to pick up as more equity "disbelievers" are converted, the economy improves and more companies follow Apple’s lead in paying dividends. [View news story]
Hey, it's on CNBC in Prime Time. Must be true. LOL
Reuters’ Robert Campbell thinks Keystone XL (TRP) has become a victim of political posturing and says a rival plan, ETP's Trunkline, is being held to a far lower standard thanks to an incoherent U.S. environmental policy. But if a pipeline isn’t built, crude will move by more carbon intensive methods that also are susceptible to accidents. Indeed, moving oil by road or rail is no longer seen as a stopgap until pipelines are built. [View news story]
There is an endless supply of ignorant individuals who truly believe that opposing oil transportation will force people towards "cleaner" energy. Some also believe that limiting or opposing pipelines will force oil companies to halt production, because of a perceived difficulty in delivering oil. Almost none of these clueless people have an answer for how growing population needs will be met, if ships can no longer transport goods, airplanes can no longer fly, and how people can get to work on an infrastructure based upon automobile travel. The ignorant would rather see zero oil immediately, yet have no concept of the consequences of such a situation.
A screenshot is posted of what's supposedly a mid-range QWERTY BB10 phone. The phone, said to be part of an upcoming "R-Series" BlackBerry (BBRY) line, will reportedly feature 8GB of internal storage and an unsubsidized price of $300-$400. BlackBerry has promised cheaper BB10 models will arrive later this year, and Thorsten Heins has said he wants both a QWERTY and a touchscreen BlackBerry phone for 3 different price tiers. [View news story]
That is what they need for many markets around the world which are more price sensitive. Perhaps by Q4 2013 we will see a full enough line-up and distribution to gauge continued sales potential.
The ITC dismisses bankrupt Eastman Kodak's (EKDKQ.PK) infringement suit against Apple (AAPL) and Research In Motion (RIMM), affirming the May decision of an administrative law judge. Kodak says it will appeal the ruling, which relates to an image-preview patent for digital cameras, to a U.S. federal court. The decision deals a blow to Kodak's efforts to fetch a huge selling price for its patent portfolio; the company is pursuing a separate case against Apple through a U.S. district court. [View news story]
Onwards to endless appeals. Meanwhile the patent system still appears in need of cleaning up. Licensing revenue potential and impacts on margins are the reasons behind these battles, but so far it appears only the attorneys are really profiting.
"We're going to patent it all," Steve Jobs declared in '06 after Apple (AAPL) paid $100M to settle an IP suit. The result would be a huge patent portfolio Apple is now wielding against rivals amidst complaints many patents cover obvious and/or existing software concepts. Apple's "unified search" patent was rejected in '04, with an examiner calling it "an obvious variation" on existing ideas. It would be rejected 8 more times before getting approved last year, and then successfully used against Samsung. [View news story]
So the trick to getting a patent is to keep resubmitting. What a great system.
Research In Motion (RIMM) might hawk its BlackBerry business to Amazon (AMZN) or Facebook (FB); sell or open up its messaging systems to Apple (AAPL) or Google (GOOG); or keep the company whole and sell a large stake to Microsoft (MSFT), Sunday Times says ($$). For now, keep an eye on Q1 earnings this week. [View news story]
That's hilarious! Since when has Maria Bartaromo been credible?
If you think a loss of RIMM will boost AAPL, then you are a fool.
Also, when you type symbols for stocks, you put them in parentheses in order to create a link, like Nokia (NOK) and not the link to a web address. I get a good laugh every time you comment.
RIMM have enough cash to burn for four years before they reach the level of NOK. Even after that, they can borrow, since RIMM have zero debt at the moment.
Definitely expect RIMM to report negative or very low earnings for this quarter, but they warned that would happen. No one should be surprised by their earnings report this week, unless the earnings are positive.
"The overwhelming probability is that the euro moves slowly (and painfully) towards some kind of fiscal integration," writes UBS. The bank's analysts assign a near-zero chance to a breakup of the eurozone, saying the economic and political consequences - up to and including civil war - would be far too costly. [View news story]
Here is a very relevant section of this report, if anyone commenting actually would bother to read this:
"Hotel California For the time being there is no provision in the relevant European treaties for a country to exit the Euro. There is certainly no provision for a country to be expelled from the Euro. Those who casually suggest that a weak country could be forced to leave either have not read the relevant legislation, or do not understand its implications. The objections that the economics profession so clearly raised against the Euro in the 1990s owed much to this irrevocable aspect of the union. Any mistake in membership is permanent. There are essentially three reasons why the founders of the Euro chose not to include an opt-out clause in the governing treaties:
The existence of an opt-out would have been seen as a lack of commitment from Member States
The existence of an opt-out – however structured – would have raised the possibility of a country exiting. Making the (currently) impossible possible would make the event (exit) more likely
By failing to specify a technical mechanism for an exit, the costs of exit are significantly raised. The result is Hotel California: “you can check out … but you can never leave” "
There is quite a good bit of analysis in that document. Highly suggest people actually read it.
A Small Silver Lining to the Gulf Spill [View article]
My ship tracking software shows a few companies active closest to the Deepwater Horizon location and the edges of the slick. Hornbeck Offshore (HOS) has the HOS Iron Horse closest to the wreck site. Gulfmark Offshore (GLF) is operating the PSV Orleans, and privately held Edison Chouest Offshore has a few vessels near the wreck site.
However, some reports indicate up to 69 vessels in the area assisting with the spill operation. Despite watching this on ship tracking software each day, it is tough to determine what ships are performing what types of services. In other words, these are observations, and not recommendations for investment.
Oceaneering International (OII) is NYSE listed, and does have technology that might be of use. Other companies would include Global Industries (GLBL), Acergy (ACGY), and Oslo listed Subsea 7. However, so far it seems that only Cameron International (CAM) and Haliburton (HAL) are confirmed as involved.
Again, none of these should be assumed as recommendations for investment. I would not want to speculate on any companies benefiting from this disaster.
Alan Greenspan acknowledges a range of regulatory failures in a review of the causes of the financial crisis, but disputes the notion that the Fed left interest rates too low for too long. Could the financial breakdown have been prevented? "Given the in appropriately low level of financial intermediary capital and two decades of virtual unrelenting prosperity, low inflation and low long-term interest rates, I very much doubt it." [View news story]
So he makes a statement including "low long-term interest rates" and yet still claims the Fed did not leave interest rates too low for too long. Either he is caught in believing his own shit, or he is one of the greatest idiots on the planet.
Live from New York, it's the Samsung (SSNLF.PK) Galaxy S IV. Mobile chief JK Shin has unveiled Samsung's new flagship device, which happens to look a lot like its predecessor. The S IV, said to support every 4G LTE band, will go on sale in late April (U.S. availability might take longer). The expected 5" 1080p display and 13MP camera are there, the next-gen 802.11ac Wi-Fi standard is supported (could be a positive for BRCM), and infrared, temperature, and humidity sensors are thrown in. A variety of camera tricks/gimmicks are provided, including the ability to simultaneously record video from both cameras. (live blog) (previous) [View news story]
I'm not so sure that ever larger smartphones is a good trend, though the success of the Samsung Galaxy Note likely prompted some of the move. As the Galaxy S 4 moves beyond the Apple (AAPL) iPhone Retina display, the real thing of note is the Full HD screen, though much more of a marketing factor than a practical change. I'm sure they will find buyers, but it seems smartphones are reaching a limit where tablets should be taking over. The next evolution may be more capable tablets, like the Surface Pro, but in slightly smaller form factors.
Apple (AAPL) roundup: 1) Folowing a year in which the iPhone 5, iPad Mini, and new iMac all saw big supply constraints due to their use of advanced designs/materials, Paul Kedrosky thinks Apple's design team has gained too much influence relative to its manufacturing team (video). 2) Apple VP John Couch recently met with Turkish President Abdullah Gul. They reportedly talked about a deal to supply up to 15M iPads to Turkish students. 3) Apple has won a patent for a plastic-bodied phone with no home button or front camera. Is this the rumored cheaper iPhone? [View news story]
Best comment in the story about that new "design" patent:
"Wow. How do Apple get "patents" for existing ideas? A "protective cover for small form factor electronics" pretty much covers every after market case available. Apple have corrupted the USPTO and the patent process."
I think Apple attorneys are now the most innovative people at the company. ;)
"We can't just drill our way to lower gas prices when we consume 20% of the world's oil," President Obama says during his weekly address. Obama took the opportunity to advocate for his "all of the above" strategy, that relies less on foreign fossil fuels, and more on: "solar, wind, natural gas, biofuels, and more." [View news story]
Bulls and bears continue to duke it out ahead of BlackBerry's (BBRY) Thursday's FQ4 report. Jefferies' Peter Misek (bull) recently argued on CNBC (video) BlackBerry could generate $4/share in EPS in 3-5 years even with modest market share and service revenue expectations. Opposing him was Nomura's Stuart Jeffrey (bear), who brought up the threat posed to service revenue from the likes of Good Technology. Today, National Bank's Kris Thompson, another bear, argued BlackBerry needs to price the Z10, which sells for well over $600 unsubsidized, more aggressively. [View news story]
The Z10 does not need to be priced lower. What is needed is the release of the Q10, and more lower priced BB10 devices. Those will get released over the next few quarters. At the moment we cannot know how well BlackBerry will do with BB10, but it is amazing that all sales projections have been below what the "obsolete" BB7 devices were able to accomplish globally.
More on BlackBerry: Pac Crest's James Faucette, who has been bearish for a while, says checks indicate Feb. quarter Z10 shipments are in the 275K-325K range, below a consensus of 1M. He also forecasts just 1M-1.5M shipments for the May quarter, and thinks the Z10 is cannibalizing Bold 9900 sales. "There is no line of sight to profitability," Faucette declares. Meanwhile, Jefferies' Peter Misek remains bullish, and claims European and Middle Eastern Z10 launches have gone well. [View news story]
The only people commenting negatively fit one of the following:
1. own AAPL and want to talk down competitors
2. have a short position in BBRY
3. have friends with short positions in BBRY
4. are fanboy$ of other brands of electronics
5. lost money in the past on RIMM (BBRY) and have a vendetta against the company succeeding in the future
6. are trolls fishing for reactions
Analysts suggested that the prior BB6 and BB7 devices were obsolete, yet they continued to sell in significant numbers. Now some of the same analysts decry that BB10 devices might "cannibalize" BB7 sales. Good thing analysts don't run technology companies. ;)
Z10 returns are in-line with those of other high-end smartphones, BlackBerry (BBRY -7.8%) insists, addressing a report that returns were now exceeding sales at some top retailers. Meanwhile, Pac Crest's James Faucette, who has been bearish on BlackBerry for some time, estimates today the weekly sell-through rates for the Z10 at U.S. carriers are only around 60K units. He forecasts just 2.9M BB10 shipments for the May quarter, with half that total consisting of channel fill. [View news story]
Anyway, until there is more of a line-up of new BB10 phones, we do not have an accurate gauge of sales potential. So for now the 77 million user base is the figure to watch in quarterly reports. I still do not recommend buying shares, simply due to the massive options volume concentrated in this company, which makes share price levels very volatile.
The bull market in stocks is going to run for the rest of the year, despite the market's already-outsized gains, says Byron Wien. “Over the past three months the pessimistic mood has changed to optimism,” Wien observes, and buying will continue to pick up as more equity "disbelievers" are converted, the economy improves and more companies follow Apple’s lead in paying dividends. [View news story]
Reuters’ Robert Campbell thinks Keystone XL (TRP) has become a victim of political posturing and says a rival plan, ETP's Trunkline, is being held to a far lower standard thanks to an incoherent U.S. environmental policy. But if a pipeline isn’t built, crude will move by more carbon intensive methods that also are susceptible to accidents. Indeed, moving oil by road or rail is no longer seen as a stopgap until pipelines are built. [View news story]
A screenshot is posted of what's supposedly a mid-range QWERTY BB10 phone. The phone, said to be part of an upcoming "R-Series" BlackBerry (BBRY) line, will reportedly feature 8GB of internal storage and an unsubsidized price of $300-$400. BlackBerry has promised cheaper BB10 models will arrive later this year, and Thorsten Heins has said he wants both a QWERTY and a touchscreen BlackBerry phone for 3 different price tiers. [View news story]
The ITC dismisses bankrupt Eastman Kodak's (EKDKQ.PK) infringement suit against Apple (AAPL) and Research In Motion (RIMM), affirming the May decision of an administrative law judge. Kodak says it will appeal the ruling, which relates to an image-preview patent for digital cameras, to a U.S. federal court. The decision deals a blow to Kodak's efforts to fetch a huge selling price for its patent portfolio; the company is pursuing a separate case against Apple through a U.S. district court. [View news story]
"We're going to patent it all," Steve Jobs declared in '06 after Apple (AAPL) paid $100M to settle an IP suit. The result would be a huge patent portfolio Apple is now wielding against rivals amidst complaints many patents cover obvious and/or existing software concepts. Apple's "unified search" patent was rejected in '04, with an examiner calling it "an obvious variation" on existing ideas. It would be rejected 8 more times before getting approved last year, and then successfully used against Samsung. [View news story]
Research In Motion (RIMM) might hawk its BlackBerry business to Amazon (AMZN) or Facebook (FB); sell or open up its messaging systems to Apple (AAPL) or Google (GOOG); or keep the company whole and sell a large stake to Microsoft (MSFT), Sunday Times says ($$). For now, keep an eye on Q1 earnings this week. [View news story]
If you think a loss of RIMM will boost AAPL, then you are a fool.
Also, when you type symbols for stocks, you put them in parentheses in order to create a link, like Nokia (NOK) and not the link to a web address. I get a good laugh every time you comment.
RIMM have enough cash to burn for four years before they reach the level of NOK. Even after that, they can borrow, since RIMM have zero debt at the moment.
Definitely expect RIMM to report negative or very low earnings for this quarter, but they warned that would happen. No one should be surprised by their earnings report this week, unless the earnings are positive.
"The overwhelming probability is that the euro moves slowly (and painfully) towards some kind of fiscal integration," writes UBS. The bank's analysts assign a near-zero chance to a breakup of the eurozone, saying the economic and political consequences - up to and including civil war - would be far too costly. [View news story]
"Hotel California
For the time being there is no provision in the relevant European treaties for a country to exit the Euro. There is certainly no provision for a country to be expelled from the Euro. Those who casually suggest that a weak country could be forced to leave either have not read the relevant legislation, or do not
understand its implications. The objections that the economics profession so clearly raised against the Euro in the 1990s owed much to this irrevocable aspect of the union. Any mistake in membership is permanent. There are essentially three reasons why the founders of the Euro chose not to include an opt-out
clause in the governing treaties:
The existence of an opt-out would have been seen as a lack of commitment from Member States
The existence of an opt-out – however structured – would have raised the possibility of a country exiting. Making the (currently) impossible possible would make the event (exit) more likely
By failing to specify a technical mechanism for an exit, the costs of exit are significantly raised. The result is Hotel California: “you can check out … but you can never leave” "
There is quite a good bit of analysis in that document. Highly suggest people actually read it.
A Small Silver Lining to the Gulf Spill [View article]
However, some reports indicate up to 69 vessels in the area assisting with the spill operation. Despite watching this on ship tracking software each day, it is tough to determine what ships are performing what types of services. In other words, these are observations, and not recommendations for investment.
Oceaneering International (OII) is NYSE listed, and does have technology that might be of use. Other companies would include Global Industries (GLBL), Acergy (ACGY), and Oslo listed Subsea 7. However, so far it seems that only Cameron International (CAM) and Haliburton (HAL) are confirmed as involved.
Again, none of these should be assumed as recommendations for investment. I would not want to speculate on any companies benefiting from this disaster.
Alan Greenspan acknowledges a range of regulatory failures in a review of the causes of the financial crisis, but disputes the notion that the Fed left interest rates too low for too long. Could the financial breakdown have been prevented? "Given the in appropriately low level of financial intermediary capital and two decades of virtual unrelenting prosperity, low inflation and low long-term interest rates, I very much doubt it." [View news story]
Live from New York, it's the Samsung (SSNLF.PK) Galaxy S IV. Mobile chief JK Shin has unveiled Samsung's new flagship device, which happens to look a lot like its predecessor. The S IV, said to support every 4G LTE band, will go on sale in late April (U.S. availability might take longer). The expected 5" 1080p display and 13MP camera are there, the next-gen 802.11ac Wi-Fi standard is supported (could be a positive for BRCM), and infrared, temperature, and humidity sensors are thrown in. A variety of camera tricks/gimmicks are provided, including the ability to simultaneously record video from both cameras. (live blog) (previous) [View news story]
Apple (AAPL) roundup: 1) Folowing a year in which the iPhone 5, iPad Mini, and new iMac all saw big supply constraints due to their use of advanced designs/materials, Paul Kedrosky thinks Apple's design team has gained too much influence relative to its manufacturing team (video). 2) Apple VP John Couch recently met with Turkish President Abdullah Gul. They reportedly talked about a deal to supply up to 15M iPads to Turkish students. 3) Apple has won a patent for a plastic-bodied phone with no home button or front camera. Is this the rumored cheaper iPhone? [View news story]
"Wow. How do Apple get "patents" for existing ideas? A "protective cover for small form factor electronics" pretty much covers every after market case available. Apple have corrupted the USPTO and the patent process."
I think Apple attorneys are now the most innovative people at the company. ;)