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Herr Hansa

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  • Why Apple's Plunge Makes Sense [View article]
    When QCOM, CSCO, and MSFT all had their run-ups on the market, demand for shares exceeded available supply, which contributed to share price appreciation. As the news focused heavily on AAPL demand for shares increased. It seems that demand has shifted slightly as some major funds decided they were overweight AAPL. When there are more sellers than buyers, then share prices tend to move downwards. Fundamentals are often ignored when companies get into a supply and demand cycle. It's a bit tough to follow the indicators to see this while it is happening.
    Jan 26, 2013. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Plunge Makes Sense [View article]
    If Apple picked up private companies, then they could avoid a bidding war. In that case the asset value would be in what that acquisition might accomplish under the umbrella of Apple.

    If Apple went after a listed company, then there is possibility of a bidding war, and delays from regulatory approvals. In either case, the timing and final price may not be at the best levels. Major financial analysts might not view such a move favorably.

    The reality of any acquisition is that it would not immediately add to revenues. While a well negotiated deal might provide a pop in AAPL share levels in the short term, the true longer term impact would be the subject of some speculation. Despite the available cash and equivalents, it is not a simply matter for Apple to expand. I would expect smaller acquisitions of private companies, perhaps even boutique chip design companies. One possible next step for Apple would be to drift away from Intel, but that would be a multi-year transition.
    Jan 26, 2013. 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Plunge Makes Sense [View article]
    Average Implied Volatility (AvgImpVol) on AAPL shares using the Prophet feature on think'or'swim tells an interesting tale over the last several months. Downward moves on high volume tell another tale, though possibly a short term oversold situation. We could very well get a bounce at this point, though shares could continue down again afterwards.
    Jan 24, 2013. 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Plunge Makes Sense [View article]
    Apple is a disruptor, though not on an annual basis. Take a look at the history of hits, and between that are time periods when they cruise along for a bit. I see them a bit like Nikon in the photographic industry, in that they often wait and work on their own timeline to create products they feel are the best integration of technologies. I have no doubt Apple will introduce new hit products in the future, just I don't expect that to happen this year.
    Jan 24, 2013. 09:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Plunge Makes Sense [View article]
    Completely agree. I've been criticized in the past for my comments on Apple, either in articles, or directly. Part of the allure was from the products, while another aspect was people wanting to catch the momentum. After seeing so many articles constantly touting the P/E, it is ironic that not one of them addressed where they thought Apple might be in 10 years or more, because after all a greater than 10x P/E is betting on that time-line or performance.

    I don't think Apple is down and out at all, though for those who still might like the company, I would suggest waiting before buying (more) shares. Companies tend to be driven in the direction there CEOs push them, and we know Tim Cook is a supply chain master. What we also know, from Tim Cook's words, is that he is not a design and idea guy. Perhaps one of the few sharp ideas that Tim Cook has done is to change the responsibilities of Jonathon Ive, though it will take some time to really see how that works out. Meanwhile other companies are moving ahead meeting consumer demands, and iDevices are near saturation levels in some markets. Apple will need to once again leap past the competition in the future, but I don't see that until mid 2014.
    Jan 24, 2013. 09:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Apple Is A Bad Bet [View article]
    It seems to me that some people are more interested in defending their choice and position, rather than considering a different viewpoint. I suppose positive and bullish articles about AAPL may be seen more favorably, though it seems unrealistic to only read those. Apple is definitely a popular company, and many small investors have some form of holding in AAPL shares. In the time since Tim Cook became CEO, the guidance the company has provided has been much more accurate than what analysts expected. As we come into the next quarterly report, the guidance on the last quarterly earnings was muted. It will be interesting to see where shares head just before, and immediately after, the next earnings report.
    Jan 5, 2013. 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • One Risk To Apple's Business: The 'Cool' Factor [View article]
    Neither. I advised friends to avoid FB shares. I think the same applies to ROVI even if Angry Birds remains popular. The big media companies that dominated in the old models are more likely to figure out monetizing. Gaming is a realm I try to avoid. In contrast advertising looks more promising.
    Oct 5, 2012. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Risk To Apple's Business: The 'Cool' Factor [View article]
    This is a redo of browser wars, except this time it will be on mobile platforms. Information gathered from users will allow monetizing content. Beyond that are ad solutions, though so far none of the advertising giants have really figured out effective mobile advertising; the numbers are poor in comparison to web and broadcast. Over the next two years, I think we will see this unfold. That should give us a few interesting investments, beyond hardware vendors.
    Oct 5, 2012. 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Risk To Apple's Business: The 'Cool' Factor [View article]
    Definitely companies and developers jumped all over apps. It appeared much like the rush to the internet, with everyone thinking they needed a website, and a proliferation of people who could accomplish that task. Those who got in early on apps probably were noticed, though eventually many became part of the fog. Of course app developers have a vested interest in promoting apps. Now with many smartphones on the market, and a high saturation density, business content that is portable across devices makes more sense than specific unique apps for each platform. It is interesting that WordPress is going some ways towards making content more touch, swipe, and mobile screen friendly.
    Oct 5, 2012. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Risk To Apple's Business: The 'Cool' Factor [View article]
    I took the replies of most, attempting to claim a unique "ecosystem" is an advantage, to simply refer to available apps on a platform. This has been shifting more lately, though the original idea of this is that apps solved all needs. Obviously that has been an overstatement fronted by some people. My contention has been that the mobile browser will become more important, as screen dimensions improve, and as more content becomes optimized for mobile. Definitely there is still room for apps, and in some cases the app experience is better than accessing content through a mobile browser.

    The point where I felt content diverged from app to mobile browser is when the Financial Times created a paywall mobile browser experience that functioned like an app, all while bypassing the app store. While The FT is a large news organization, they did prove the potential of optimized mobile browser content, and that it could be profitable. The other factor that confirmed the shift was reports from numerous companies frustrated by the app experience, and instead moving towards mobile browser content. All this transition takes time, because altering content, like making links and navigation touch and swipe friendly, is time consuming. Also, like I mentioned in my articles, hiring web developers is lower cost than hiring programmers.

    I do not view all this mobile content in a black or white, all or nothing view. Mobile browsing and apps can coexist and provide mobile content. Mobile websites can be optimized to give an app like experience, without the need to download updates. The "ecosystem" is evolving to mean everything, and most of it is very portable, meaning that exclusive platforms are not a good business model for locking in users. Rather, the better approach is quality, design/style, and user experience.
    Oct 5, 2012. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Risk To Apple's Business: The 'Cool' Factor [View article]
    If we looked at the ecosystem as available content, then we have to include music, maps, e-mail, messaging, and mobile internet. So beyond apps, there is no finite control over content, with very few exceptions. Outside of older rights managed music, even downloaded music is portable across platforms. If the ecosystem is everything, then the ecosystem is nothing. ;)
    Oct 5, 2012. 02:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Risk To Apple's Business: The 'Cool' Factor [View article]
    Well, I had a nice reply typed out, but the page reloaded and wiped it. Get's tiring typing this much. There are more games available than other apps, and according to several sources, games are the most downloaded and most successful monetizers.

    Try that as a start. The top 300 apps are often available cross platform. Much like the leading Microsoft and Adobe titles were available on Windows and Mac OS, we can find most of the top apps available on Android and iOS, and even other mobile platforms.

    Apps do not lock people in anymore than software locked people to Windows or MacOS. Some people may like one or a few very specific apps, and those might be enough to keep someone on one platform, but truly exclusive apps are not as common as multi-platform apps.

    In the late 1990s, prior to Steve Jobs return to Apple, he had an interview with Wired magazine. This was prior to Google appearing. One of the things he stated was that you cannot control the distribution system. Oddly enough, this was prior to iTunes. On mobile platforms, as screens improve, we will see more mobile internet usage.

    On the desktop/laptop, it was about letter writing or managing/organizing, often through MicroSoft Office. Now it is more about e-mail and social networking. With e-mail needing to be standards compliant, there is little to differentiate one e-mail client from another. Social networking is available through any web browser. Other information is available through a browser following standards. Only people who need to create content or manage content need to buy software. Gaming companies for the desktop are being challenged by large screen televisions and consoles.

    Locked down software specific to a platform is not a model for long term success. It will appear very important in 2013, but just like we saw a shift in desktop/laptop, we will see a shift in smartphone/tablet. The next great frontier in mobile is actually mobile commerce. Some of that will be through apps, because apps can accomplish more in specific instances, though mobile browsing will continue to gain ground.

    Investors should bet on user experience and style/design, and not on locked in ecosystem users. Apple will still be a great company, even with changes coming to mobile. It is up to Apple to screw up and falter. They appear to be in a position to cruise along with a loyal fan base. There will not be sudden changes.
    Oct 4, 2012. 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Risk To Apple's Business: The 'Cool' Factor [View article]
    Different conclusion. The "ecosystem" of apps is overwhelmingly games based, which is easy to see in the revenue and popularity. Smartphone usage is largely about mobile internet. You can find that in my various articles about the mobile sector. Can I possibly answer any of your questions without writing another article, or typing insanely long comment responses?

    "According to Pew Research, about 90% of us are sending or reading e-mail, 88% of us are using a search engine, 86% of us are looking at a map or driving directions, 76% of us are checking the weather, 75% of us are buying something, 72% of us are reading the news, and around 57% of us are doing our banking. This suggests that mobile commerce is becoming increasingly important, with some room still to grow. In the U.S. in 2009, mobile commerce represented about $600 million and grew to $2 billion by 2010. As investors, we look for opportunities to capitalize upon this trend."

    I discuss the growing trend of mobile browser usage in that article.

    I discuss camera usage, local search, and monetization of apps in that article.

    App development and ecosystems in that article. Early indications of a trend towards HTML5 bias, due to lower cost of web developers than programmers, amongst other issues.

    Carriers in conference calls often indicate how talk minutes have declined relative to data use expansion. Prior to smartphone growth, texting was bigger in Europe than in the US, though that was based upon the cost structure of billing.

    As for longevity, we do have clear signs of future trends. Those who think things are set in stone, and nothing will change, will be surprised. Change is constant, and should be expected. When I write about the sector, I don't look at the next quarter, I look several years ahead, using several years of data, and enough data sources to have more than 40 tabs open on FireFox at any one time (I currently have 87 tabs open in FireFox). We've had enough conversations that you should know the amount of information I go through on a daily basis. Yes, we cannot give short simple answers and cover much ground, but that is exactly what many people attempt to do in their comments.
    Oct 4, 2012. 02:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • One Risk To Apple's Business: The 'Cool' Factor [View article]
    Pricing pressure is a different level. We can see that with some Android vendors, who sell largely on low price levels. Another would be the pre-paid phone market, where we can see some Android and the BlackBerry Curve. As long as Apple avoids the pre-paid market, which carries no prestige, then the premium high end is preserved.
    Oct 4, 2012. 02:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Risk To Apple's Business: The 'Cool' Factor [View article]
    Basics would be food and shelter. Of course most of us want something we perceive as better. Anyway, you appear to understand what I meant, and confirm my point.
    Oct 4, 2012. 02:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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