Seeking Alpha

Herve van Caloen

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Herve van Caloen's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Top Down Vs. Bottom Up - Which Investor Has The Edge? [View article]
    The Cyclically Adjusted PE for the S & P is 26.5, compared to a long term average of 16.5.
    Earnings margins continue to be at all-time highs and valuations are very high as well. Does that mean that the market cannot go to higher multiples? Of course not. It is more doubtful that corporations will be able to keep all-time high profit margins in spite of very tepid top-line growth.
    Jul 14 12:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deleveraging? What Deleveraging? [View article]
    Japan is an example of crowding out with banks now mostly financing the huge public debt instead of financing corporations and the private sector in general.
    Jun 29 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deleveraging? What Deleveraging? [View article]
    I believe a Japanese scenario becomes more and more likely. Unfortunately.
    Jun 28 10:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deleveraging? What Deleveraging? [View article]
    When the debt level is too high, it makes that kind of growth so much more difficult. I think that's what Rogoff's work demonstrates.
    Jun 28 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deleveraging? What Deleveraging? [View article]
    Yes, and the junk bond market has exploded too. This is not helping, but overall, the picture on the corporate side still looks solid. At least for the moment.
    Jun 27 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's Plenty Of Downside Left For Ocado [View article]
    Good article, Nathan. Thanks. Let me take the opposite view, though.
    The key for Ocado is to rapidly grow to become the dominant player in a developing industry. If they reach a critical level, they will benefit from a huge first mover advantage. Hence all that matters is top line growth and the financial means to get to the dominant position that Amazon has acquired in its field decades ago.
    To compare Ocado's margins and pricing power with Ocado's misses the point that Amazon has been investing hugely for years in growth to get to the point they are today. One should look at how Amazon was valued 15 to 20 years ago instead.
    Two more thoughts. Aldi and Lidl are not at all competing with Ocado. They are addressing the low end of the market. Ocado's customers are very unlikely to go to Aldi stores. I shopped at an Aldi in Florida, and will never go back...As far as underpaid staff, so is Walmart's staff. It did not prevent them from becoming successful.
    If Ocado can grow its top line at 20%+, profitability will not matter for years. Financing growth is the challenge, that's the Morissons deal was important. You think they still will have to come to the markets, but can't they just borrow money? They now have a strong balance sheet and cost of money is low.
    Jun 10 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Every Stock Gets A Participation Trophy In The ETF World [View article]
    There is a difference between Deng Xiaoping's liberalization and the irresponsible monetary policies of the last 5 years or so. Growing double digits from a non existent economy was the easy part. I believe China is not claiming 9% growth anymore. The official number is closer to 7%. The housing bubble is now imploding and most banks are in fact bankrupt - that is if there was proper accounting for the non performing loans issued during their QE on steroids.
    Jun 1 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Every Stock Gets A Participation Trophy In The ETF World [View article]
    This article addresses exactly this misconception that monetary policies can replace sound economic policies and create jobs. It created the bubble in ETFs in the US and the housing bubble in China as well as the huge non performing loan problem in Chinese banking system, etc. the French problem has much more to do with a confiscatory fiscal policy and chocking regulations than any imagined lack of money printing. The ECB has actually been incredibly accomodative.
    May 30 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Every Stock Gets A Participation Trophy In The ETF World [View article]
    Thank you, Pankaj. Yes, it is surprising how few people seem to worry about the long term consequences of the hyper active central banks.
    May 30 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Every Stock Gets A Participation Trophy In The ETF World [View article]
    Chris, I beg to differ. China has created a huge financial mess by creating some short term "wealth".
    As for the ECB, I believe they are the only credible central bank left. How else do you explain that Italian and Spanish long term bonds are down to 3%%?
    Here is what I wrote a while ago when everybody was predicting the end of the euro:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    May 30 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Every Stock Gets A Participation Trophy In The ETF World [View article]
    Thank you, eagle1003. I am afraid I am not a specialist on ETFs or derivative types. It looks, though, that you are right about attracting investors' attention on this. Maybe you should write it?
    May 30 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Q1 GDP Data Misleading Us? [View article]
    For five years now economic growth has been predicted to be around the corner. There is always an economic statistic somewhere that is good enough to explain why the disappointment is only temporary. Even though 6 months ago most economists predicted 3 to 4% growth in the first quarter, a contraction is not so bad after all...
    May 30 07:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Every Stock Gets A Participation Trophy In The ETF World [View article]
    Indeed, leverage only exacerbates the problem. I assume that Blackrock's CEO is being cautious in his use of words. I was not aware of his comments, but it sounds like he is trying to warn us without sounding alarmist.
    May 30 05:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Every Stock Gets A Participation Trophy In The ETF World [View article]
    Yes, but all allocations are made according to the companies' market caps, not the stocks' fundamentals. In your example of 50 stocks, the stock that gets more than 2% could very well be the one with the worst fundamentals.
    May 30 05:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Every Stock Gets A Participation Trophy In The ETF World [View article]
    Thank you. I hope it will start a needed debate.
    May 29 05:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
130 Comments
326 Likes