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Herve van Caloen

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  • The Cold Economic War [View article]
    Casime, I think you overestimate people's support for an economy that benefits only Kleptocrats. As far as Asian's focus on economic growth, why is China spending so much money on its military and claiming control over most of the South China Sea for example? I think it is major mistake to believe dictators behave rationally, at least according to our definition of rational. Appeasement (calm down so that we can do business again...and wait for the next mov ego explain rationally) does not have a good track record.
    Mar 26 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Cold Economic War [View article]
    My intention was not to start a political debate, but to look at historic context. Globalization is in retreat because of geopolitical developments. The way politicians react to events will have major investment implications. A military conflict, a full blown trade war or a "cold" trade war all mean different things for stock markets. I do find it useful to look at history in that context.
    I believe the rearmement of Asia unfortunately is only at an early stage. European defense has been ignored for many years and a very long cycle of rebuilding a credible force could be around the corner. I hope I am wrong.
    Mar 25 08:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Cold Economic War [View article]
    This article is about investing, indeed. Explaining Putin's motives does not change the facts.
    I wrote Putin is NO Hitler, but there are some obvious similarities with the way Hitler justified his annexation of German speaking areas, including Austria and the Sudetenland. Then too, apologists thought it be good to hope he would stop there. Putin has now invaded and occupied South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Crimea. What is next? Zaporozhia? Transniestra?
    I do not compare Putin's invasions with NATO's support for people's rights because that is a different topic.
    My point about Merkel is that she has to play a leading role that she wish she did not have to play because of Obama's absence and lack of interest in international matters.
    Finally, whatever your sympathies, this article argues that globalization has now been replaced by an economic war escalation. This, I might add, when stocks are hugely inflated by a reckless Federal Reserve Bank.
    Mar 25 06:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Cold Economic War [View article]
    Indeed March 1938 was the time to stop Hitler.
    How little we learn from history.
    Mar 24 07:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Cold Economic War [View article]
    I suppose, but I don't know anything about shippers. From atop down point of view, it would make sense to look at it.
    Mar 23 08:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Cold Economic War [View article]
    Agree. Putin is scheduled to travel to China in May.
    Mar 23 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Cold Economic War [View article]
    Really not sure. Probably up as Europeans are scrambling to diversify.
    Mar 23 07:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MercadoLibre And The Value Of Moats [View article]
    That's a difficult question. The problem is that their earnings are hugely inflated because they use official currency exchange rates when translating these earnings. Venezuelan revenues should be divided by 5 at least to reflect the real numbers. Also, emerging markets are still vulnerable in my opinion. There will come a time to buy MELI because they have such a strong market position and the industry still has a lot of growth ahead, but now is too early.
    Mar 20 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Wealth Effect That Did Not Trickle Down [View article]
    I enjoyed too. Cheers.
    Feb 17 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Wealth Effect That Did Not Trickle Down [View article]
    Soft currency economics was the opposite of the Reagan/Volcker era. I remember paying my MBA in dollars with Belgian francs and it hurt! That's where we differ in our analysis, there was a complete U turn in the 80's, then we started drifting again towards "the middle" and a more managed economy.
    Feb 17 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Wealth Effect That Did Not Trickle Down [View article]
    Are you saying that free markets come with volatility and abuses? You bet they do. They also provided 20 years of real economic expansion.
    Volcker's high interest rates was tough indeed, a bit like a bitter medicine. But you take the medicine because you are sick.
    Finally, one should start explaining why the tax income went up so much during the Reagan years, including as a percentage of GDP.
    Feb 17 11:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Wealth Effect That Did Not Trickle Down [View article]
    Asbytec, "the collapse of the great moderation" is dead on.
    I don't understand why you include Reagan, though. In his time, Paul Volcker, was implementing a very different monetary policy. One may also remember that Volcker had been appointed by Jimmy Carter. And yes, Nixon was a disaster for our economy.
    Feb 17 09:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Wealth Effect That Did Not Trickle Down [View article]
    Well, some people believe in laissez-faire and the invisible hand in a capitalist system. Again, I do think that the first QE made sense because the financial system was frozen. QE 2 and all the following stimulus programs was no longer about liquidity - the system was working again. It was about the wealth effect, which I think will come back to bite us.
    Feb 17 09:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Wealth Effect That Did Not Trickle Down [View article]
    This is an interesting question. The moment of truth may be here. If asset deflates, it will hurt the economy, just like it did in 2008 or in Japan in 1989.
    Feb 16 06:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Wealth Effect That Did Not Trickle Down [View article]
    When the fed buys70% of the government's ballooning deficit, it is enabling the reckless behavior of the politicians.
    Feb 16 06:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
115 Comments
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