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Hester

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  • The Paleo Diet Surge And Its Effect On General Mills And Coca-Cola [View article]
    "The median life expectancy at birth in the "Paleo" period was about 33 years. Just a data point to ponder."

    Maybe you should ponder the legitimacy of that data point.

    Average life span numbers take into account infant mortality, which was rife at the time, and therefore skews the numbers. If they made it out of infancy the average human lived much longer . And this is without even the most basic healthcare, disease knowledge, or even a shelter.

    Also, we don't really know how long the average prehistoric human lived. The only thing we have to go on is measuring the rate of bone loss. Bone loss is sporadic/episodic, and influenced by lots of environmental/dietary or genetic factors that can vary widely between peoples. Its a very poor measure of a persons age.

    Also saying that prehistoric man lived to "33" is ridiculous, since average life span varied quite a bit across tribes, depending on population density (warfare), climate, access to food, disease potential, number of predators, etc...
    Nov 6 07:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The False God Of The Dividend [View article]
    "The value of the company is based on present and future profits and dividends."

    The value of a company is just based on profits, dividends are merely a way of distributing profits. By your logic you could also say the value of a company is based on present/future profits and share buybacks.

    Or to put it another way, that would be like saying the value of your job is your salary plus the checks you receive. But the checks are just how the salary gets distributed, it obviously doesn't create any new value, just like dividends.

    The only reason to favor dividends would be a situation where the company would destroy their profits if they retained them, while doing share buybacks would be deleterious due to overvalued stock price. Even then the double taxation of dividends destroys some value.

    I'd rather own businesses that don't destroy value when earnings are retained, and don't have overvalued share prices. This therefore making dividends meaningless at best.
    Nov 7 10:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Open Access Threatens Academic Publishers [View article]
    While it will be a positive development for science and freedom of information, a short position in these stocks is a difficult way to make money. These kinds of copious shifts of status quo take a very long time, and there is always the risk that nothing ever changes. Meanwhile, you are shorting, as the author admits, extremely profitable, fat margin businesses.

    It's a good article but the investment thesis lacks a catalyst in my opinion.
    Apr 13 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PWC Zhong Tian: A Chinese Auditor With A Flawless Record [View article]
    CMED is definitely a fraud. The only evidence you give to the contrary is the stock is going up. That means Zhong Tian's record is not perfect.
    Apr 1 02:32 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CAPEX, Fraud And The RTO Nightmare [View article]
    Good Work
    Mar 14 09:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Northern Iron Ore: The Greatest Short Play You Can't Make [View article]
    No bad comments about the article, but it's absolutely mind blowing how this and the other SA article out today made enough people sell to make the stock go down 13%. There was absolutely nothing knew written here. That's not the author's fault. This is just a really simple story.

    I mean, this information has been out and widely distributed for years. In Seeking Alpha, other highly read blogs, twitter, etc... All you have to do is spend 2 minutes in the 10K.

    The owners of this stock have to be some of the dumbest money in the world.
    Mar 1 06:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • School Specialty: A High Quality Business for the Contrarian Investor [View article]
    I've sold SCHS and moved on a little while ago. I was wrong on this one.
    Feb 24 09:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting USA Trust Would Be Nice At Half Its Price [View article]
    But if the SEC made trusts show depletion, then it would take away the joy that I get watching stupid investors like "investor X" lose their money.
    Feb 14 05:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting USA Trust Would Be Nice At Half Its Price [View article]
    30% hard to borrow fee for those who want to short.
    Feb 10 11:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of Internet: Still Growing Nicely At A Cheap Valuation [View article]
    Thanks.

    Maybe I am underestimating the stickiness of their depositors. However I think the most important factor is interest rates. Over a cycle internet banks make most profits when rates are as low as possible. When rates go up the P/E will look less attractive and I don't think people will want to pay more than book. The good news is the Fed looks pretty deadset on keeping rates low through 2014.

    http://bit.ly/AaPsba
    Feb 5 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Medical's Debt Restructuring Should Create A Stronger Capital Structure [View article]

    " I think there is a possibility that either the Chairman, or outside companies, are making a run at the company."

    I am in complete awe at the delusion expressed here. Seriously, I'm speechless.

    A controversial stock, where the only question relevant to the investment thesis is whether there is fraud or not, just missed a $5 million bond payment despite supposedly having $200 million in cash. And then they don't say a word, or put out an 8K, which is a violation of SEC regulations.

    Tell me, name another stock ever, where a buyout offer caused the company to miss a bond payment equal to 2.5% of their cash on hand. Name a buyout offer that caused a company to default on their debt and not report anything to the SEC.

    The writing is on the wall. It's mea culpa time.
    Feb 3 12:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Education Management Co.: Litigation And Dependence On Title IV Will Sink The Company [View article]
    This is a great article but the borrow on this stock is impossible. IB has the HTB fee at 66% annualized and the longest maturity puts only go out to June. There is little opportunity here unless you have reason to believe this slow moving litigation will pick up.
    Jan 11 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Cannot Put A Value On Your Favorite Stock [View article]
    WTF

    BAD valuation led people to RIMM and the ilk. People didn't understand how bad the business would get.

    The solution to bad valuation is good valuation, not to throw out valuation.

    (Coming from a NFLX short so I'm on your side)
    Jan 3 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Infrastructure Investment Corporation: Shorting Seems A Good Option, But Not Without Risk [View article]
    Well this pump and dump has kind of come full circle.
    Jan 3 01:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends: A Case of Behavioral Heuristics? [View article]
    Of all the arguments for dividends, the one that makes the least sense to me is "so management doesn't waste the cash."

    Aren't we all aware that there are other ways to raise money than from cash flow that might otherwise pay a dividend?

    Take REIT's, a great example. They must pay out almost all their earnings. Yet right now the vast majority of them are selling stock and raising debt for expansion. In fact, most REIT's balance sheets are significantly more levered than the average company, or see significant dilution from year to year.

    When you buy a stock you are giving management your capital, they can choose to do whatever they want with this capital within reason, they can lever it up and/or spend it on diworsification.

    Dividends simply don't stop management misallocation of capital.
    Jan 3 12:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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