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  • China Slowdown: Look Out Below for Copper [View article]
    Tenaris's macro profile (bit.ly/jd8b6X) shows a Copper Impact of 3.29 with an Rsquared of .90 (even stronger positive correlation than LB Foster). For your guide, HiddenLevers has done regression analysis for every single equity and ETF, and runs over 2 million regressions each night to keep the correlation data fresh. Check us out in the SeekingAlpha app store.

    At HiddenLevers, we look at macro. We've mapped the 10y and 2y correlation between 100 economic indicators and the whole universe of stocks + ETFs + MutualFunds + ClosedEndFunds + ADRshares + 15 major currencies. Using these regressions, which are refreshed daily, we can tell you what a company's economic underpinnings are, and sometimes uncover HIDDEN ECONOMIC LEVERS that are pushing on your investments. We can also help manage risk in your portfolio, by letting you model big picture scenarios, based on these correlations.
    Jun 16 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Slowdown: Look Out Below for Copper [View article]
    Good morning Mr. Pupppy. No attack. Just insight.

    At HiddenLevers, we look at macro. We've mapped the 10y and 2y correlation between 100 economic indicators and the whole universe of stocks + ETFs + MutualFunds + ClosedEndFunds + ADRshares + 15 major currencies. Using these regressions, which are refreshed daily, we can tell you what a company's economic underpinnings are, and sometimes uncover HIDDEN ECONOMIC LEVERS that are pushing on your investments. We can also help manage risk in your portfolio, by letting you model big picture scenarios, based on these correlations.

    LB Foster's macro profile (bit.ly/lHzOsR) shows a Copper Impact of 2.49 with an Rsquared of .81 (strong positive correlation). For your guide, HiddenLevers has done this for every single equity and ETF. Check us out in the SeekingAlpha app store.
    Jun 15 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Emerging Markets Escape the Global Downturn? Part I - Bearish [View article]
    Well looks like I wasn't alone in my opinion. George Soros is out of China folks. bloom.bg/kSSw3w
    Jun 14 08:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Risks of a Merciless Market as the Earnings Parade Begins [View article]
    i didn't realize you were such a Thespian Ed.. Kudos on your article getting lifted!

    Raj
    Mar 28 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PIMCO Out of U.S. Treasuries - 3 Ways to Bet With Bill Gross [View article]
    Try these sources on for size:

    www.ritholtz.com/blog/.../

    www.thestreet.com/stor...

    www.bloomberg.com/news...

    If i wanted to sensationalize, I would go to Business Insider or HuffPo. We are just truth-tellers amigo. Take a look at all our previous work. We diss USO regularly. We said take profits on Oil at 102usd. We said play the Japanese recovery and Uranium before it was cool. We make pretty good calls, but the HiddenLevers machine helps us a lot. Easy and cheap access to macro-economic data and analysis tools make it pretty easy.

    You ain't gonna get this on Yahoo Finance, and you surely can't afford a Bloomberg terminal. Enter HiddenLevers.
    Mar 23 09:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Nuclear Plays as Uranium Prices Bounce [View article]
    That's just it Zenstar. I am concentrating on the macro basis... These picks were chosen due to their high high correlation with Uranium prices. How did I find the Uranium impact coefficient? Well HiddenLevers of course! We have calculated the Uranium beta for every US stock and ETF. That's exactly what we used to do on the trading floor. It's called a shortcut. And I think I did alright with my picks, and I took a full lunch instead of digging through a hundred ideas. I started with macro, and got to the best of breed way faster.
    Mar 21 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Nuclear Plays as Uranium Prices Bounce [View article]
    That $33 call was worst case scenario, if the Japanese reactors actually melted down, and their was a nuclear gas cloud that floats over Tokyo, like something out of a Hollywood Thriller. I wrote the article as bullish as I could, but acknowledging that a Black Swan event (possible but improbable) could make us all bow down. That doesn't seem to be the case, and my picks have done quite well. Thanks for your comments! I appreciate the feedback amigo!
    Mar 21 08:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Panic Cycle (And Recovery) Ridiculously Foreshortened? [View article]
    i love your convictions. Oil prices have been going south because 1. the middle east business floated them up to frothy, and because call option activity suggests everyone is already long (so look out next week during options expiry). The smart money got our of Oil at 102ish... Oh and not all commodities were down... nat gas was up a good bit.

    the bounce-back today in Japan is amazing, and seems like way more than a dead cat bounce. you could have predicted it this afternoon when the US markets came back north after gapping down. Nikkei took that button and kept going.

    the markets that past few weeks though tell us one thing - macro is still overwhelming fundamentals. it's been happening since 2008, and hasn't stopped. that's why we created HiddenLevers.

    Hope you are well amigo. I really like your work here.
    Mar 16 02:28 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan Earthquake Through the Macro Lens: 3 Recovery Plays [View article]
    I think the Nikkei took a 10% hit after the Kobe earthquake in 1995, and took about a year to recover. Hopefully by the time markets close, things will even out, notwithstanding the nuclear fall out (no pun intended)
    Mar 13 10:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forsaking Oil Volatility for Copper [View article]
    Just look at the chart against copper in both macro profiles. Nuff said.
    Mar 8 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forsaking Oil Volatility for Copper [View article]
    our correlations go back 10years. But a simple look at the charts since 2009, when things picked up for commodities is the time frame I mean. And that is plenty of time to see that Copper is less volatile than Oil these days. The visual says it all my people.
    Mar 8 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $140 Oil and How to Profit From It [View article]
    If you believe Oil is trending up, forget about USO. www.hiddenlevers.com/?...
    Mar 8 12:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorting the Dollar, Via These Three Multinationals [View article]
    The intent of the article was actually not to imply that shorting the dollar is a good (or bad) idea at this point - but to note that if you do think it's a good idea, this is how to play it using certain large cap stocks. If you believe strongly that the dollar will rally moving forward, HiddenLevers can show you picks for that trend as well.
    Feb 20 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorting the Dollar, Via These Three Multinationals [View article]
    Convoluted, thanks for the comments on options strategies. You can certainly make use of options spreads, iron condors, and other similar strategies to generate income from currency ETFs, and from other stocks for that matter. I frequently do the same (though as disclosed, no positions in companies mentioned here).

    To be fair to the currency ETFs, their tracking errors are much lower than certain commodities ETFs, particularly the oil and gas ETFs. My point here was to mention that it's possible to invest in companies that have an inherent currency play embedded in them. Companies like ORCL are actually leveraged currency plays to an extent, as they tend to move faster than the currency ETFs when the dollar makes large moves, according to HiddenLevers historical regression analysis.
    Feb 20 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Ways to Play a Downward Tick in Oil Prices [View article]
    And yet despite the fuel surcharges, oil has helped crush the trucking industry! Rising oil prices have helped shift freight from the roads to the rails wherever possible, as can be seen in the performance of both trucking and railroad stocks. Even if a fuel surcharge helps YRCW offset the immediate cost of diesel, it doesn't help with the fact that it's losing business because its fleet simply isn't as cost effective in a high oil price environment. You are correct that YRCW has many other issues that it's confronting - but make no mistake, oil prices are inversely correlated with the trucking industry, and falling oil prices would be huge boon for YRCW.
    Feb 16 12:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
38 Comments
36 Likes