HiddenLevers' Instablog HiddenLevers lets investors chart economic indicators against stocks, generate trading ideas based on economic parameters, and understand how big picture scenarios will impact their investments. The team is comprised of Wall Street trading floor veterans, economic experts, and successful Black Swan contrarians. This is HiddenLevers premium level product. For Investment Advisors, PWM, and Portfolio Managers, please see our professional level product at www.hiddenlevers.com. HiddenLevers http://seekingalpha.com Oil set for correction… how should you play it? http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/612998-hiddenlevers/125425-oil-set-for-correction-how-should-you-play-it?source=feed 125425 Crude oil has had quite a run over the past six months.  And with it, a great run for the oil refiners too. Valero (VLO) up 40%. Tesoro (TSO) up 75%. Frontier Oil (FTO) up 45%. Sunoco (SUN) up 28% – all over the past half year.

Since July, many oil related plays have been doing well. But in my opinion oil is now due for a pull back. Usually crude oil trades inversely to the dollar. But a look at the 3m and 6m comparison between Oil and USD shows that they have been trading up together. Since November the US Dollar has been on a tear back up, largely due to fears of a European meltdown, and troubles in the Koreas.  The dollar is now in bullish consolidation after a run up into December, and the USD index could even make its way up to into the mid 80s. And as soon as the dollar goes northward again, I’d be ready for a correction in oil. A combination of profit taking and technical patterns playing out, Oil is overdue for a fall. And you can bet that these beloved oil refiners will ride that train down as well.

So how should you play a correction in oil? Using the HiddenLevers screener, I just searched for stocks that go up as the price of oil goes down. I also set some other criteria in place – 1 billion usd market cap and decent volume trading per day (500k shares). I found a couple airlines, United (UAL) and Continental (CAL) and it stands to reason. The airlines have gotten a bit beat down in December, and even more so just last week due to the great blizzard in the Northeast US. I’d look for a bounce back there as Oil corrects.



Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
]]> Tue, 04 Jan 2011 03:46:18 -0500 Crude oil has had quite a run over the past six months.  And with it, a great run for the oil refiners too. Valero (VLO) up 40%. Tesoro (TSO) up 75%. Frontier Oil (FTO) up 45%. Sunoco (SUN) up 28% – all over the past half year.

Since July, many oil related plays have been doing well. But in my opinion oil is now due for a pull back. Usually crude oil trades inversely to the dollar. But a look at the 3m and 6m comparison between Oil and USD shows that they have been trading up together. Since November the US Dollar has been on a tear back up, largely due to fears of a European meltdown, and troubles in the Koreas.  The dollar is now in bullish consolidation after a run up into December, and the USD index could even make its way up to into the mid 80s. And as soon as the dollar goes northward again, I’d be ready for a correction in oil. A combination of profit taking and technical patterns playing out, Oil is overdue for a fall. And you can bet that these beloved oil refiners will ride that train down as well.

So how should you play a correction in oil? Using the HiddenLevers screener, I just searched for stocks that go up as the price of oil goes down. I also set some other criteria in place – 1 billion usd market cap and decent volume trading per day (500k shares). I found a couple airlines, United (UAL) and Continental (CAL) and it stands to reason. The airlines have gotten a bit beat down in December, and even more so just last week due to the great blizzard in the Northeast US. I’d look for a bounce back there as Oil corrects.



Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
]]> A year to remember for South Africa http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/612998-hiddenlevers/121713-a-year-to-remember-for-south-africa?source=feed 121713 Anglo American (AAUKY) and the Rand (ZAR) have been two solid options for investors looking to dabble abroad. 2010 will most likely be remembered as the year where precious metals took off. A large part of Anglo American’s success can be attributed to the recent surge of Gold to record levels. Like the CAD and AUD, the ZAR is a currency driven by mineral speculation. The question one has to ask is whether Gold can keep this prolonged rally going? I personally believe this precious metal is in good position to keep these gains up well into the New Year.
 

Mining is key to South African wealth - bit.ly/g70QNV
 

There are a number of reasons as to why I am so bullish on bullion, the main being uncertainty about the dollar. Last night’s filibuster over the Federal budget for 2011 comes at a time when critics (at home and abroad) are concerned with the manner in which the Obama administration and Congress plan to address the growing US deficit. If this sentiment continues it would be good news for both Anglo and the ZAR. Historically Gold does well when the dollar is in a weakened state. If this proves to be the case, look for the luster of ZAR and AAUKY to attract wary investors.
 

Scenarion: Dollar Crash - bit.ly/g70QNV

HiddenLevers can help you find stocks based on where you see Gold and the Rand headed, among dozens of other economic trends. Or, if you are concerned with how your current portfolio would be affected by a weakening US dollar, HiddenLevers can help you understand how your investments would be affected in such a scenario. (subscription required)



Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
]]> Fri, 17 Dec 2010 16:44:06 -0500 Anglo American (AAUKY) and the Rand (ZAR) have been two solid options for investors looking to dabble abroad. 2010 will most likely be remembered as the year where precious metals took off. A large part of Anglo American’s success can be attributed to the recent surge of Gold to record levels. Like the CAD and AUD, the ZAR is a currency driven by mineral speculation. The question one has to ask is whether Gold can keep this prolonged rally going? I personally believe this precious metal is in good position to keep these gains up well into the New Year.
 

Mining is key to South African wealth - bit.ly/g70QNV
 

There are a number of reasons as to why I am so bullish on bullion, the main being uncertainty about the dollar. Last night’s filibuster over the Federal budget for 2011 comes at a time when critics (at home and abroad) are concerned with the manner in which the Obama administration and Congress plan to address the growing US deficit. If this sentiment continues it would be good news for both Anglo and the ZAR. Historically Gold does well when the dollar is in a weakened state. If this proves to be the case, look for the luster of ZAR and AAUKY to attract wary investors.
 

Scenarion: Dollar Crash - bit.ly/g70QNV

HiddenLevers can help you find stocks based on where you see Gold and the Rand headed, among dozens of other economic trends. Or, if you are concerned with how your current portfolio would be affected by a weakening US dollar, HiddenLevers can help you understand how your investments would be affected in such a scenario. (subscription required)



Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
]]> Gold. Anglo American Rand With a new year, comes new opportunities http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/612998-hiddenlevers/121633-with-a-new-year-comes-new-opportunities?source=feed 121633

Oracle beat the Street, while Cisco under achieved. But why?  I examined both Oracle (ORCL) and Cisco (CSCO) and found that they both bore strong correlations to IT spending and the S&P 500 (Both levers are currently trending up for the year). What irked me was why Oracle was performing above and beyond expectations, while Cisco was floundering. I found that the difference between the two tech giants was in their client base. Cisco is much more exposed to the US public sector than Oracle. 20% of Cisco’s revenue was derived from state and local governments which are trimming budgets bare.

Good for ORCL, bump in the road for CSCO - bit.ly/eBSXdq

Where Cisco once stumbled, could gradually become an opportunity. IT spending is expected to start trending higher in 2011. I personally believe these estimates are a little conservative, but I agree with view that growth in IT spending will be driven by cost cutting measures by both the public and private sector. Companies and governments recognize that maintaining their own IT services has just become far too expensive. Opting to the services of cloud computing mercenaries is simply cheaper. This trend in cutting cost also moves across the board to other services such as video conferencing which is far cheaper than travel costs and allows companies to expand into new markets just as effectively. Go figure: teleconferencing is a pillar in Cisco’s business strategy. With this in mind CSCO should start to catch up to ORCL in 2011.

HiddenLevers can help you find stocks based on where you think IT spending growth is headed, or from dozens of other economic trends. Our macro profiles also let you know which economic levers are relevant for your stocks. Try it free for 30 days.




Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
]]> Fri, 17 Dec 2010 13:59:05 -0500

Oracle beat the Street, while Cisco under achieved. But why?  I examined both Oracle (ORCL) and Cisco (CSCO) and found that they both bore strong correlations to IT spending and the S&P 500 (Both levers are currently trending up for the year). What irked me was why Oracle was performing above and beyond expectations, while Cisco was floundering. I found that the difference between the two tech giants was in their client base. Cisco is much more exposed to the US public sector than Oracle. 20% of Cisco’s revenue was derived from state and local governments which are trimming budgets bare.

Good for ORCL, bump in the road for CSCO - bit.ly/eBSXdq

Where Cisco once stumbled, could gradually become an opportunity. IT spending is expected to start trending higher in 2011. I personally believe these estimates are a little conservative, but I agree with view that growth in IT spending will be driven by cost cutting measures by both the public and private sector. Companies and governments recognize that maintaining their own IT services has just become far too expensive. Opting to the services of cloud computing mercenaries is simply cheaper. This trend in cutting cost also moves across the board to other services such as video conferencing which is far cheaper than travel costs and allows companies to expand into new markets just as effectively. Go figure: teleconferencing is a pillar in Cisco’s business strategy. With this in mind CSCO should start to catch up to ORCL in 2011.

HiddenLevers can help you find stocks based on where you think IT spending growth is headed, or from dozens of other economic trends. Our macro profiles also let you know which economic levers are relevant for your stocks. Try it free for 30 days.




Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
]]> orcl csco IT spending 2011 Public Sector Here's some food for thought http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/612998-hiddenlevers/120715-here-s-some-food-for-thought?source=feed 120715 Last month’s Retail Sales figures continue to look good as we head into the final weeks of the holiday season. However, I think the true story of the day should be the growing concerns of inflation globally. It seems that these concerns aren’t just in China anymore; the UK reported a rise in CPI of 3.3% for the month of November. Ben Bernanke is correct in stating that the U.S. continues to have overall low levels of inflation; 1.20% CPI for the month of November. What bothers me is that Bernanke and Financial media have had limited discussion over rising food prices. In case you didn’t hear agricultural commodities are currently trending at 30.32% for the year. Not to alarm anyone, but we are at a pace that nearly doubles that of our High Inflation scenario.

Scenario high inflation - bit.ly/eutSFN

One lesson history has taught us is that people will tolerate incompetent and often oppressive governments. But once the price of food starts to go up, heads will to roll. Just ask Marie Antoinette. If this trend persists fertilizer might be the play. Check out Potash CP Saskatchew (POT) and Agrium Inc. (AGU).

Every Farm needs good Fertilizer - bit.ly/eutSFN

HiddenLevers can help you find stocks based on where you see Consumer Price Index headed, among dozens of other economic trends. Our macro profiles let you know which economic levers are relevant for your stocks. Try it free for 30 days.



Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
]]> Tue, 14 Dec 2010 13:22:17 -0500 Last month’s Retail Sales figures continue to look good as we head into the final weeks of the holiday season. However, I think the true story of the day should be the growing concerns of inflation globally. It seems that these concerns aren’t just in China anymore; the UK reported a rise in CPI of 3.3% for the month of November. Ben Bernanke is correct in stating that the U.S. continues to have overall low levels of inflation; 1.20% CPI for the month of November. What bothers me is that Bernanke and Financial media have had limited discussion over rising food prices. In case you didn’t hear agricultural commodities are currently trending at 30.32% for the year. Not to alarm anyone, but we are at a pace that nearly doubles that of our High Inflation scenario.

Scenario high inflation - bit.ly/eutSFN

One lesson history has taught us is that people will tolerate incompetent and often oppressive governments. But once the price of food starts to go up, heads will to roll. Just ask Marie Antoinette. If this trend persists fertilizer might be the play. Check out Potash CP Saskatchew (POT) and Agrium Inc. (AGU).

Every Farm needs good Fertilizer - bit.ly/eutSFN

HiddenLevers can help you find stocks based on where you see Consumer Price Index headed, among dozens of other economic trends. Our macro profiles let you know which economic levers are relevant for your stocks. Try it free for 30 days.



Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
]]> pot agu Inflation Agriculture Food Prices Chinese Inflation http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/612998-hiddenlevers/120630-chinese-inflation?source=feed 120630 Tue, 14 Dec 2010 09:38:45 -0500 shi M & A for Dell - it's about time! http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/612998-hiddenlevers/120382-m-a-for-dell-it-s-about-time?source=feed 120382 Last week’s discussion over cloud computing purposely omitted Dell Inc. The company was simply a non-factor when it came to endeavors in this field. Especially after losing a bidding war to HP for 3Par in early September of this year.  However, today’s announcement of the acquisition of Compellent a data storage provider marks a step forward for the Dell. Even though critics cite that Compellent is considered more of a provider for smaller to middle of the road companies. It is still a step in the right direction for Dell, simply because Dell has no option if it still wants to be relevant during this data storage revolution.

Dell will now be a viable option for corporate and government clients that want to cut expensive IT services through the use of cloud computing. As clouding technology becomes a larger component of the company’s business model expect Dell to perform as IT spending is expected to pick up through 2011. Click the thumbnail charts to see which levers push on Dell:

[iframe www.hiddenlevers.com/hl/u?eyTDa8 475 310]

HiddenLevers can help you find stocks based on where you see Interest rates headed, among dozens of other economic trends. Our macro profiles let you know which economic levers are relevant for your stocks. Try it free for 30 days.



Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
]]> Mon, 13 Dec 2010 13:50:54 -0500 Last week’s discussion over cloud computing purposely omitted Dell Inc. The company was simply a non-factor when it came to endeavors in this field. Especially after losing a bidding war to HP for 3Par in early September of this year.  However, today’s announcement of the acquisition of Compellent a data storage provider marks a step forward for the Dell. Even though critics cite that Compellent is considered more of a provider for smaller to middle of the road companies. It is still a step in the right direction for Dell, simply because Dell has no option if it still wants to be relevant during this data storage revolution.

Dell will now be a viable option for corporate and government clients that want to cut expensive IT services through the use of cloud computing. As clouding technology becomes a larger component of the company’s business model expect Dell to perform as IT spending is expected to pick up through 2011. Click the thumbnail charts to see which levers push on Dell:

[iframe www.hiddenlevers.com/hl/u?eyTDa8 475 310]

HiddenLevers can help you find stocks based on where you see Interest rates headed, among dozens of other economic trends. Our macro profiles let you know which economic levers are relevant for your stocks. Try it free for 30 days.



Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
]]> dell IT technology