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  • Chesapeake Joining Buda Oil Rush In South Texas [View article]
    The drilling economics is the huge key to the Buda. By my rough calculations collectively as a group the Beeler 2H, 3H, 4H, 6H, 7H, 8H, 9H, and the Woods Unit B wells all achieved a 100% return of capital by the end of May based on the TRC production reports. All production from those wells going forward is pure profit. That is amazing considering four of the wells didn't even start producing until 2014.

    I'm not including the 5H well, because in my mind all the costs of drilling the 5H and the sidetrack need to be included and so far that has been the most expensive well. But regardless of the production from the 5H there should easily be enough production from the eight wells listed above to achieve a 100% return of the capital invested in the 5H well.
    Jul 23, 2014. 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Joining Buda Oil Rush In South Texas [View article]
    We need more data on the 9H and 5H to know what kind of wells they are. Thanks to the contribution of someone who to the well sites it looks like the Beeler 8H and the Sage Energy Reinhard-Zientek wells have been fracture stimulated (the auto speller won't let me type f-racked). We also need data on those wells.

    The larger point is it is very hit and miss, but the winners pay for the mediocre wells. FYI, what we are calling mediocre wells are on a trajectory combined to reach payout in less than two years. The expectations are so high for the Buda play it is almost surreal.

    What is fascinating is the Beeler 4H well and the Jessica wells are clearly home run wells. But the 7H well located right near them is mediocre. A lot remains to be learned about the geology and best drilling techniques for the Buda.
    Jul 23, 2014. 10:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Joining Buda Oil Rush In South Texas [View article]
    To find the Jessica well click on the online permit on the TRC website:

    http://bit.ly/1p8786Z

    There is a map link next to the API# under surface location. Click on the link and find well #33098. The Beeler 4H is #33040 and the Beeler 7H is #33073. You may have to zoom out 1.5X to find the Beeler 4H.
    Jul 22, 2014. 06:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Energy Is The Way To Play The Buda Oil Discovery [View article]
    For those interested in the geology of the area here is some great info from the U.S. Geological Assessment in 2003:

    http://on.doi.gov/UGFvKS

    There could be a lot of oil drilling opportunities beyond the Buda and the Eagle Ford.
    Jun 16, 2014. 07:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Energy Is The Way To Play The Buda Oil Discovery [View article]
    "They drilled a bunch of wells in 3Q and 4Q last year."

    They drilled one Buda well in the second quarter. They completed one Buda well in the fourth quarter. They completed two Buda wells in the fourth quarter (one at the very end of December). Drilling and completions ramped up at the end of the first quarter of 2014 and that continued into the second quarter. The second quarter should be the start of the "show me the money" quarters.
    Jun 16, 2014. 07:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonestar Resources Is The Next Multi-Bagger Getting Ready To Rock In The Lone Star State [View article]
    Nice article. I noticed you used USEG as part of the peer group. It showed the second lowest valuation based on your metrics. It is also poised to grow very rapidly due to the discovery of the Buda beneath its Eagle Ford acreage. Here is more info for those interested in the Buda oil play:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jun 7, 2014. 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Energy Is The Way To Play The Buda Oil Discovery [View article]
    The Larsen's compensation is less than industry peers. You are misinformed. The stock will move higher when they demonstrate materially significant growth on a sustainable basis.

    The production data from April is pointing to the second quarter as the break out quarter for growth. If the move is sustained when the May production results are all released in early July the stock should trend higher and higher into the second quarter earning's release.
    Jun 4, 2014. 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Energy Is The Way To Play The Buda Oil Discovery [View article]
    I have been expecting this, but not this soon. Very good news indeed.
    May 19, 2014. 11:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Energy Is The Way To Play The Buda Oil Discovery [View article]
    Thanks for the update on the potential that the new partner is Sage. They tend to be quick on updating their results on the Texas Railroad Commission website. Not to mention they have drilled a couple of successful Buda wells already.
    May 18, 2014. 12:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Energy Is The Way To Play The Buda Oil Discovery [View article]
    The first quarter reflects multiple shut-in days for many of their Bakken wells due to the severe winter weather. They should have more production days from the bulk of their Bakken wells in the second quarter.

    The Buda averaged a little over 400 Boepd in the first quarter. That is the number I am forecasting to jump in the second quarter. Also, I don't know why, but a much larger than normal amount of their natural gas production was flared in February dragging down their production. It looks like a pipeline or processing plant issue. It all bounced back to normal in March.
    May 14, 2014. 05:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Energy Is The Way To Play The Buda Oil Discovery [View article]
    The 325,000 EUR is the current estimate for an average well. The Dan Hughes Heitz 302 3H well is already past that and still going strong. I only mentioned the oil it produced and not the liquids rich natural gas. So far it appears the Beeler #4H, #2H, and perhaps the #6H could all pass 325K as well.

    It is not clear why the Beeler #7H and #8H wells are underperforming. Both were drilled in the northern most part of the acreage and that could be the reason. It's also possible the wells were partially drilled outside of the Buda. As I mentioned as more wells are drilled the average EUR could rise or fall.

    It is also unclear how long these wells will keep producing. The best Austin Chalk well on the Booth-Tortuga lease has been flowing since the late 70's.
    May 14, 2014. 05:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Stocks Profiting From The Buda Oil Sweet Spot [View article]
    I do plan to do another article on the Buda formation sometime in the next two to three weeks. I'm currently working on another natural gas article.
    Apr 7, 2014. 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Chance Natural Gas Storage Dips Under 1 Trillion Cubic Feet [View article]
    Demand is also at record highs and net imports are at record lows.

    Right now it is hard to see storage getting past 3.3 Tcf unless weather is very supportive this summer. But that would be at prices that price out all coal to gas switching and the current price range of $4.50 does not do that. At current prices storage could end under 3 Tcf on normal weather.
    Mar 31, 2014. 07:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Chance Natural Gas Storage Dips Under 1 Trillion Cubic Feet [View article]
    Last week we reached 896 Bcf and another big draw is coming. Season should end close to 800 Bcf. I'd say the prediction on storage has been stellar.

    The futures collapsed in February and have yet to recover. We may not see a super spike in futures prices after-all. So far the price spike prediction has not come true. However, weather is very supportive the next two to three weeks and the storage situation is a major crisis for next winter. A major price response is still possible in 2014 if storage doesn't rapidly close the gap.
    Mar 29, 2014. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Stocks Profiting From The Buda Oil Sweet Spot [View article]
    The results of this well will be very interesting. Is the Buda very widespread or more concentrated near fault lines?
    Mar 17, 2014. 10:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
336 Comments
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