I am the publisher of the Fundamental Trends Investment Letter and have over 20 years of experience as an investment advisor. I've been ranked a top analyst by TipRanks.com for my tracked public performance over the past five years.
Find me on MarketWatch where I was named Named "The World's Next Great Investing Columnist," Seeking Alpha, TheStreet.com, Morningstar, Real Clear Markets and numerous other sites. I have been a featured guest on the "Boomers Rock" radio show and appeared on Fox Business.
I'm from a middle class working family. I invest using a top down approach to find the best sectors, industries and regions and then a bottom up approach to find the best opportunities in those areas. My goal is to help people find greater financial freedom.
10 years of buy-side investment experience.
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My work consists in procuring investment situations for clients where the estimated monetary value of a quoted financial security is significantly higher than its market cost; thus establishing a margin of safety in investments that allows for market outperformance and a lower risk profile in the long term. During this time I have successfully identified and invested in inefficiently priced financial securities that with few exceptions have outperformed global equity markets.
My experience is further divided into two types of investments:
1.) General Equity Investments: Investments in companies whose true value is unrecognised by equity markets.
+Asset Value. Shares of companies selling for much less than their net asset value, liquidation value or those that have substantial hidden assets.
+Earnings Power Value. Shares of companies selling for much less than their cost of capital times their earnings, normalised earnings or their earnings potential.
+Great businesses at great prices. Shares of companies with excellent ROIC levels and competitive advantages selling for a price unreflective of such characteristics.
2.) Special Situations: Financial opportunities characterised by an unlocking of value via a complicated or uncommon financial structure that tend to be disregarded by market participants.
To realise the aforementioned investments, I read a great number of financial documents, reports and news articles daily and analyse and model my findings. While doing so my strategic framing and approach is two-fold:
+ Defensive Strategy: Monitoring and analysing the composition of the client’s securities portfolio and acting accordingly when the estimated value of a financial security changes.
+ Offensive Strategy: Exploring the global marketplace in search for investment opportunities, analysing them quantitatively and qualitatively and comparing them to the client’s opportunity cost (i.e. cash, current portfolio positions or other potential investments).
I have worked for almost 30 years in the custody end of financial services in the Midwest USA. My interests are personal investing to earn income and prepare for retirement and more contribution to the church and society.
Business owner since 1994; Investor since 2009.
My primary interests are currently (my son) High School football and (daughter) Girls Select (ECNL) Soccer, which is a helleva lot more fun than research.
Late 2006: Housing, commercial real estate and our businesses were booming; everything was wonderful until I opened another money-losing brokerage statement; after a phone call where the broker "couldn't remember" a mutual fund fee, I had finally had it, I was done. I took my statement, and while driving to to a business meeting that morning, I saw a Fidelity store, pulled into the parking lot, walked in the door, up to the counter and drop the brokerage statement and a business card on the counter. A lady with a cup of coffee, startled, "can I help you?" "Yes ma'am, please move this over to your company. Call me when you need me to sign something.", and I turned and walked out the door.
I had decided to personally re-invest a portion of our "managed" money. I spent 2007-'08 reading, researching (anywhere from 30-40 hours a week outside my regular job- listening to conference calls at 2 & 3 am- in my home office- a place my wife referred to as "the hole" back then) the economy and market.
That '07 research revealed to me that a financial/economic fire storm was coming... that there was more money in packaging mortgages into securities to provide AAA 5% money to the Chinese savers than in the houses themselves. Panicked, we made adjustments to our business models that probably saved our companies. We hoarded cash, we made purchases and diversified our businesses into areas that didn't rely solely on new construction; we were able to replace older, marginal equipment with new and refi'd our building early with favorable financing in early '08.
I often wonder, had that broker had made money, and I not taken up my personal research, would we have been able to change quickly enough when the economy, new construction and credit market turned south? We lost a lot of business friend and foe alike in the Great Recession. Revenue in our businesses dropped 30% overall that first year, but we made money-- not much, but we weren't in the red.
Finally feeling confident after watching the '08 market drop and being 100% in cash, I started easing into market at the end of '08 and throughout '09; about pee'd my pants in March '09. My first buys were BAC, TPP,EPD, MWE, MMLP.
I had to eased off research work load @ end of 2010-- too busy at real job. Cut my holdings of 30-40 companies back to 5 or 6 now. Just couldn't keep up with work required to do it properly.