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High Sharpe  

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  • Mold Contamination In Some Freshpet SKUs Introduces Product Recall Risk [View article]
    If you guys follow equity derivs, the other day bid for may 20 strike 5/15 calls was 2.1 with stock 21.65-21.82. interesting. maybe a short trying to cover? It's was an arb. I made it.
    May 8, 2015. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mold Contamination In Some Freshpet SKUs Introduces Product Recall Risk [View article]
    any idea when this deal will price? before earnings release?
    Apr 28, 2015. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Avoid Nathan's Famous [View article]
    I have to agree with the specialist. This company just became super leveraged, thats not a good thing typically for shareholders, the wealth created now flows to debt holders. If the leverage created was plowed into the company for development of new plant and equipment there would be flow to shareholders, but the leverage created has literally gone "poof". The company would need some serious growth to be attractive. Quick and dirty: 17% rev growth equals 112 revenue 2015, 20% operating margin equals 22.4 million(pre debt). Interest expense 13.5 million. So income pre tax equals 8.9million after tax call it 5.78 million or 1.28 a share at 58.74 a share thats 45.9 times earnings and EV/Ebidta(added back 1.5million for depreciation) of 16.58. Thats not a buy unless you think 2015 and forward is going to be a hot dog heaven...
    Apr 6, 2015. 09:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sphere 3D: A Short So Fat, When I Yell 'Hey Kool-Aid!' It Comes Crashing Through The Wall [View article]
    absolescence, overland related my guess. inventory isnt a software thing
    Apr 2, 2015. 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sphere 3D: A Short So Fat, When I Yell 'Hey Kool-Aid!' It Comes Crashing Through The Wall [View article]
    Wish there was a liquid options mkt...
    Mar 31, 2015. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sphere 3D: A Short So Fat, When I Yell 'Hey Kool-Aid!' It Comes Crashing Through The Wall [View article]
    Wow. The number of comments on a company that has yet to prove itself and if any thing has disappointed in the past is amazing. Parsing through these comments is like wading through weeds in a swamp barefoot looking for a sharp rock. Very limited quality with most of these comments. I think it might be best to let the company release and then some judgments can be made. This story isnt going to explode in the next quarter or two. Let's get some substance in the numbers, there isnt any right now.
    Mar 28, 2015. 06:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Essex Rental: Technical Default Masks Massive Value; Triple-Digit Returns Possible [View article]
    The NOL's do have value under s382, just depends on the acquisition value and long term fed exempt interest rates. I'll admit the numbers are not high maybe say 1-1.2 mil a year assuming say a 45mil takeout, but I think they can accrue. And I believe there is a way to increase the exemption through net unrealized built in gains. Maybe they could be used based on the difference you described? I took a look at Section 382 exemptions, wow, they are not simple! Definitely would be a corp tax attorney thing
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sphere 3D: A Short So Fat, When I Yell 'Hey Kool-Aid!' It Comes Crashing Through The Wall [View article]
    I should have read the comments first! Thanks.
    Mar 26, 2015. 02:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sphere 3D: A Short So Fat, When I Yell 'Hey Kool-Aid!' It Comes Crashing Through The Wall [View article]
    Great article. Just one question: Why did Cyrus pour so much money into what appears to have been a consistently losing investment?
    Mar 26, 2015. 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Essex Rental: Technical Default Masks Massive Value; Triple-Digit Returns Possible [View article]
    I'm trying to get a grasp of what they did last quarter with the equip sales. I see the sales coming through, and I assume the cost of rev is their write down from where it stood on their rental equip book. I can see the their rental equip asset line declining, and I see a decline in current liabilities. Did they pay down anything? I dont see a cash flow statement. 94.6% of OLV on 5.7mil sales with a 3.7mil slug of interest. Margins look pretty tight and have declined relative to last year in a couple places. Seems like they are really pushing the line here. The asset sales would possibly have to speed up a bit? They are moving very slow on the sales side and relative to the interest expense is a bit uncomfortable.
    Mar 24, 2015. 11:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Avoid Nathan's Famous [View article]
    Could this be some sort of funky poison pill?
    Mar 18, 2015. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust Conservatively Overvalued By 50% [View article]
    They are unhedged, so expect the dist to decline 25-30% assuming flat production. I would assume more wells are uneconomic at these levels as well as a change in reserves due to the lower gas price. We will get an idea in a few days from the 10k. This is a total time bomb. Assume 2.8 gas on 6.2 bcf reserve assuming no change to reserve and you get an undiscounted value of 17.36 mil for trust. This also doesnt take into consideration trust will shut down at 5mil value for reserves. Im following it, but borrow is quite expensive. Best played through options if you think reserve statement will show declines.
    Mar 6, 2015. 02:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forestar Group: A Land Of Opportunity As Change Appears On The Horizon [View article]
    Great article. I run a scan during earnings season looking for beats and then filter through them. This name sparked my attention for the p/b and it appeared profitable. Your more detailed analysis provided me with a springboard to do some work. It seems like you use conservative assumptions, which is admirable, considering you are long. Definitely looks to be one of those sock it away and wait. The water rights really fascinate me.
    Mar 6, 2015. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectrum A Significant Hidden Asset At Entravision [View article]
    I appreciate you sharing this company on seeking alpha. I do not follow spectrum, but know a little about finance. This seems like a reasonable play. I did purchase at your first iteration. Thanks
    Feb 20, 2015. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Little LRR Energy Has Big Hedges, Strong Prospects [View article]
    Hi, nice comment. Do you have any guess how much higher rates might be running on another tranche of term debt? I think they are paying 9% on the 50 now. could be 8. I would assume they have some sort of plan for a base shortfall. Even at 10% on 100mil wouldnt be terrible to swap out.

    If you assume base/net asset of 58%, and lets decline asset by 20% then borrowing base would decline to 208mil. I just used back of the envelope on 446.765 mil asset from the most recent filing. 260mil base on 446.765mil asset is 58%. Impairing asset by 20% would reduce asset to 357mil, at 58% would be 208 mil base.

    Looking at the energy price decks, there was a sensitivity done 20% conservative price deck. I assume base case is fair(banks would try to get some edge so maybe wouldn't calculate at fair, but would want some cushion), and sensitivity case is edge(where they would love to price and are very comfortable). So lets assume borrowing base was priced off of midway between base case and sensitivity. That would give us something between 60 and 77 or mid at 68.5 a barrel. If we discount that for the recent move in oil by 20% we get 54.8 mid. Is that reasonable?

    Of course a dist cut is inevitable. They aren't really a wildcat operation so their production is pretty stable and low field cash cost.
    Feb 6, 2015. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
154 Comments
64 Likes