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  • Reading Between The Lines Of Bridgepoint And Apollo Accreditation Announcements [View article]
    No doubt BPI's earnings will be lower than they have been historically. I'd cut net income by 50% to be conservative. They would still be earning $60 million per year vs. an enterprise value of ~$400 million. About half the current market cap is in cash and short term investments. The stock is still very cheap.
    Jul 12, 2013. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Imperial Holdings Worth? Free 1 Month Cruise To The Bermuda Triangle For 636 Of Imperial's Insureds [View article]
    We have a higher percentage of our assets invested in IFT than any other fund. At the same time we are below the 5% threshold that would require us to file a Form 13.
    May 20, 2013. 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman: If He Can Defend J.C. Penney, He Can Defend Anything [View article]
    Not only is there a lot of upside if they turn it around, the downside is limited if management chooses to scrap the new model and return to the old. Before this strategy shift, revenues were flat to down 2% year over year. JCP could always go back to that if it needs to.
    Nov 17, 2012. 07:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman: If He Can Defend J.C. Penney, He Can Defend Anything [View article]
    Correction: jcp is not subleasing space to brands.The merchandise within each shop is owned by jcp, and all shops are staffed by jcp team members.
    Nov 17, 2012. 07:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sony's Comeback [View article]
    If Kaz Hirai were CEO earlier, the Sony Ericsson partnership would have ended earlier. I thought of this idea at least four years ago because I noticed that people really like the Sony name... they do not like Sony Ericsson.

    Nobuyuki Idei and Howard Stringer were two of Sony's worst managers. As soon as Norio Ohga passed the crown to people without a passion for gadgets, the slide began. Norio Ohga himself was more of a musical aficionado than a gadget guy. So I blame him, too.
    Mar 3, 2012. 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At Satyam Computer Services Ltd. [View article]
    I don't know whether the stock will be higher over the next month. I do think that I was wrong in my analysis by not overweighting the fact that Tech Mahindra has a lot of influence over Satyam and I'm not sure the corporate governance in India is set up well enough to prevent a takeunder of Satyam. Judging by how shares are trading, the market isn't too excited.
    Feb 29, 2012. 02:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mattress Firm Should Provide More Details To Investors [View article]
    I have posted an improved version of my Mattress Firm write-up on as an alternative to the old one featured here. The editors of Seeking Alpha have told me that they do not make changes to content already published on the site… only corrections. Since publication, I have added important details to strengthen my case.
    Jan 3, 2012. 02:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mattress Firm Should Provide More Details To Investors [View article]
    I appreciate the response.

    Admittedly this is not the most convincing article I've ever written about a company. When you suspect a company is being dishonest, you never can be dead sure about it. You can only have a hunch that things are too good to be true.

    In order to believe me, you need to believe that I am not a crook (i.e. that I am not making up the information I purport to be from reliable "sources"). And even if you don't think I'm a crook, you can't really be sure whether my sources are crooks.

    HOWEVER, if you believe that my sources are reliable and you accept what the employees and ex-employees have told me, there are some serious problems with this company. Maybe that is too big an "if" for some people to believe. Whatever. I am just putting this information out to the market because I feel that it HAS TO be mentioned. If I were invested in this company, I would want to know these kinds of details. You know Mattress Firm isn't going to tell people.

    The most important thing here is the intent of the person giving you information. On one side you have Mattress Firm, which is still majority-owned and controlled by J.W. Childs who hasn't had a chance to exit yet. On the other you have a money manager who has detected similar behavior in the past and who has called out several other companies before their share prices dropped. My intent may be to cause the stock to drop (as I do have a short position). But my sources include people who currently work at Mattress Firm. And their suppliers.
    Jan 2, 2012. 05:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: What Happens When A Stock Takes A Tumble [View article]
    The question is what holdings he will keep and which ones he'll dump. The fund has something like two-thirds invested in financials. My thinking is that if he is forced to sell something, it will be a financial stock rather than something non-financial.
    Dec 28, 2011. 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Spin-Off: The Hardware Side Of Sears, Part I [View article]
    Good job on this article. You have made my life a little easier.
    Dec 28, 2011. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Options Expiration Day: How I Did This Month/Year [View article]
    I define a workout as something that is totally uncorrelated with the market. Regardless of whether the market goes up or down, we will make money if Stefan buys TLB and we will lose money if he doesn't.
    Dec 21, 2011. 11:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Options Expiration Day: How I Did This Month/Year [View article]
    Wow. Two major typos here.


    One of the most frustrating mistakes was that I did not buy Foxconn (FXTCF.PK) or BYD (SEHK: 1211) before they surged.

    Then I discovered (belatedly) that Kyle Bass’ fund had purchased 4.9% of MGIC (ticker MTG).
    Dec 20, 2011. 01:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Curious Case Of Navios Holdings: Inconsistency In Headline Earnings Reporting [View article]
    I didn't think anyone else in the world followed this company. Despite the negatives you talk about in this article, I think this is a lousy short because most of their ships will come online in 2013. That's when the earnings will come in.
    Dec 2, 2011. 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion Is Doomed [View article]
    I'm not trying to pump my trade. I don't have a position here anymore (though I was LONG last week). And this blog post shouldn't even be on this website. I only want my research to be published here. The editors just take everything from my feed without telling me.

    I agree that there will always be some people who prefer Blackberries. I just think you will be in the shrinking minority every year from now on. They no longer make anything that wows people. Apple does that. To some extent Samsung does that, too.

    The operating momentum is so strong against RIM that owning the stock is like swimming up a waterfall.

    I just read the BMO Capital Markets report, which I thought was good. Some highlights:

    In conjunction with our updated handset model, we are lowering estimates for RIM. We see a somewhat weaker end market for Smartphones, and are taking a more cautious modeling approach to the impact of the recent service outage. In our model, we lower our assumptions for Smartphone and Playbook units, net additions, and service ARPU. We believe there will be a nice fundamental rebound in the November and February quarters as new Blackberry 7.0 phones ramp, but management for some reason has already guided for 50% growth in EPS for the second half compared with the first. The Street is below guidance, but headline risk remains.

    Our recently updated global handset model highlights a weak September quarter, with Smartphones and 3G missing the mark. We believe the weakness seen by most vendors is a sign that the device market is not immune to a slowdown, particularly when products are late to market. We expect RIM to rebound in terms of unit shipments, but see less upside from consensus based on the changing industry dynamic.
    Nov 8, 2011. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion Is Doomed [View article]
    Wow. I have only one thing to say to you RIMM longs. Learn to cut your losers. You will become better traders when you can put aside ego and lock in your losses. People like you thought RIMM was a great deal at $35. Are you going to keep holding on as it goes lower?
    Nov 8, 2011. 11:36 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment