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  • The Curious Case Of Navios Holdings: Inconsistency In Headline Earnings Reporting [View article]
    I didn't think anyone else in the world followed this company. Despite the negatives you talk about in this article, I think this is a lousy short because most of their ships will come online in 2013. That's when the earnings will come in.
    Dec 2 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion Is Doomed [View article]
    I'm not trying to pump my trade. I don't have a position here anymore (though I was LONG last week). And this blog post shouldn't even be on this website. I only want my research to be published here. The editors just take everything from my feed without telling me.

    I agree that there will always be some people who prefer Blackberries. I just think you will be in the shrinking minority every year from now on. They no longer make anything that wows people. Apple does that. To some extent Samsung does that, too.

    The operating momentum is so strong against RIM that owning the stock is like swimming up a waterfall.

    I just read the BMO Capital Markets report, which I thought was good. Some highlights:

    In conjunction with our updated handset model, we are lowering estimates for RIM. We see a somewhat weaker end market for Smartphones, and are taking a more cautious modeling approach to the impact of the recent service outage. In our model, we lower our assumptions for Smartphone and Playbook units, net additions, and service ARPU. We believe there will be a nice fundamental rebound in the November and February quarters as new Blackberry 7.0 phones ramp, but management for some reason has already guided for 50% growth in EPS for the second half compared with the first. The Street is below guidance, but headline risk remains.

    Our recently updated global handset model highlights a weak September quarter, with Smartphones and 3G missing the mark. We believe the weakness seen by most vendors is a sign that the device market is not immune to a slowdown, particularly when products are late to market. We expect RIM to rebound in terms of unit shipments, but see less upside from consensus based on the changing industry dynamic.
    Nov 8 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MF Options Trade: A Binary [View article]
    Yeah. I'm not counting on it though.

    On the other hand, based on my observation of other "worthless" stocks, they trade at nonsensical prices for a long time. Does any smart equity holder expect to make any money after the holding company liquidates? No. But this stock could still trade at 20 cents by March. The costs of shorting this thing are so high that it's not worth it for a hedge fund to push the stock to its intrinsic value, which is zero.
    Nov 2 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MF Options Trade: A Binary [View article]
    Stock is trading under the ticker MFGLQ at 20 cents. My options are not trading but they should soon.

    The November put I am long is worth 80 cents; bought it at 37. The March put I am short is worth 80 cents; sold it for 49. The March put will likely trade for more than its intrinsic value of 80 cents. After commissions I expect to make a small amount of money from this trade. Nothing to write home about, but the risks were very small as well.
    Nov 2 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn Does Not Present An Attractive Value Proposition For Advertisers [View article]
    As I wrote in the article, I do not trust Alexa's information because they have no incentive to put out accurate information. A web traffic analyst has told me that Quantcast is much more reliable.
    Nov 1 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MF Options Trade: A Binary [View article]
    George Soros would say that reflexivity makes it very likely that MF will file for bankruptcy. The ratings agency downgrades were the start of the dominos falling. The bonds dropped to 70 and the stock fell to $2. This all happened so fast that it was impossible to raise money by issuing bonds or stock. They had to max out their credit line. Major clients have left / are leaving to do business with other counterparties. Then, Gasparino reported that potential buyers are thinking about waiting to buy the assets in court. The bondholders were selling at 40 cents on the dollar today.

    If there is a bankruptcy filing, the equity is worthless because there is no franchise value left if clients have left in droves. On a going forward basis this isn't as valuable as Lehman was because at least Lehman had Neuberger Berman. There would have to be a liquidation at MF. And seeing as how MF has risky assets 5X larger than its equity, it's likely that the bondholders will take losses. By the time you pay for lawyers, the equity would be way out of the money.
    Oct 28 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Mystery On Yahoo Gain After Earnings Fail [View article]'s market cap is not $45 billion US. That figure is Hong Kong dollars. So your calculation is off by 7.7 times or so.

    Oct 19 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dilution On September 19: Sell-Off Coming For YRCW Shareholders [View article]
    Anyone with access to the S&P report care to email it to me? My fund was short the stock and I would like to have a copy of the report to show my investors how stupid the sell-side research firms are. My email address is kaspergtmn at gmail dot com. THANKS!
    Sep 19 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At Satyam Computer Services Ltd. [View article]

    Can you provide a link to the newsletter? As the original author of this research piece I am intrigued. If anything, Mr. Elliott stole my work.
    Sep 18 05:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Memes, RIMM Collapses After Hours, Remember When We Could Have Bought Apple At $240, Some Thoughts On Google [View article]
    This article should not have been published here. It was a draft from my blog that I put up by accident. It needs a lot more work.
    Sep 17 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning: A Play On Apple [View article]
    Yes. I was thinking the same thing. The Taiwanese assemblers would have to know all the part suppliers.
    Sep 12 01:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At Satyam Computer Services Ltd. [View article]
    You have to register as an institution as per FII. It costs $5,000. I looked at Interactive Broker's list of Indian securities and Satyam is not one of the them.
    Sep 10 07:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At Satyam Computer Services Ltd. [View article]
    You are correct. Thank you for pointing this out.
    Sep 2 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At Satyam Computer Services Ltd. [View article]
    Before the shares are delisted, you should give your broker instructions on how you would like your shares to be treated.

    I intend to convert my ADS into shares trading on the Bombay exchange. Our prime broker cannot handle this, so I am going to transfer the ADS into an Interactive Brokers account. I am not sure whether Bank of America can handle this. I would think not.
    Sep 2 02:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At Satyam Computer Services Ltd. [View article]
    This is the author.

    I apologize to readers that I did not include a section on valuation. We are updating this now.
    Sep 1 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment