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Horace Dediu

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  • The Bear Case For Apple Assumes Stupid [View article]
    The first chart is not mine. I don't think I ever implied in my work that Apple's platforms have always been niche.
    Nov 19 01:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Truth About Apple's Q4 Results [View article]
    I had completely missed this. Thanks for pointing it out. You can see a graph of the anomaly here:
    Nov 15 01:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Misses On Westport In Article From 11/4/2012, “Stocks Finish Flat In A Storm-Battered Market”. [View instapost]
    I guess the confusion stems from the type of license deal Westport has made with Cummins and whether Daimler may join as well. When are the companies competing and when are they cooperating?
    Nov 5 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Ready To Soar On Lumia 900 Success [View article]
    Nokia reported phone sales in the US. They were 600k units in the quarter including all smartphones. You can read more about regional performance in terms of device units, sales and pricing here:
    Apr 23 01:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Retail Store Revenue Growth May Be Declining [View article]
    The cause for the slowdown is the iPhone model switch. Retail revenues track very closely with iPhone activations.

    I analyzed this in October:
    Dec 27 09:50 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Disrupted Its Markets On A Shoe-String R&D Budget [View article]
    Capital is no more conducive to innovation than alcohol is to creativity.
    Nov 28 02:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When's the Right Time to Sell Apple? [View article]
    "First and most importantly, duplicating blockbuster success time and again is very hard to do"

    You mean like Pixar? Yes, it's hard. I can only think of one other company that can do that.
    Aug 19 02:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons Apple Investors Should Be Nervous [View article]
    Only 10 reasons? Surely you can think of more.
    May 26 10:50 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street’s Infinite Loop: How Apple Is Valued [View article]
    Jobs announced he had cancer in mid 2006. The P/E increased from then to reach 50 at the end of 2007. The chart covers most of that period.
    Oct 28 09:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street’s Infinite Loop: How Apple Is Valued [View article]
    Your second point about Amazon having more room to grow suggests it has lower market share in its respective market than Apple does. We should then ask what's Amazon's market share in online commerce (and what's its operating margin)? I only know that Apple has single digit share in almost all markets it competes in except the music player market.
    Oct 28 09:45 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street’s Infinite Loop: How Apple Is Valued [View article]
    So it follows that if Jobs is removed from his job then the stock should go up because the uncertainty has been removed.
    Oct 28 09:42 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Bearishness in RIM Overdone? [View article]
    Typically good writing on RIM from Andy. The company has always been a challenge to predict.

    Use this thought exercise: If RIM did not exist today and someone were to suggest it, could it ever get funded?

    If you could not fund a startup with their plan then RIM must be operating on legacy not on the future. If their plan is fundable then it's a strong buying opportunity.
    Sep 19 02:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple Need to Cut iPhone Margins? [View article]
    In Q1 AT&T stated that they activated 2.7 million iPhones. That is 31% of the 8.7 million iPhones sold by Apple during that quarter. The ratio has been similar for over a year.

    During the entire life of the product line (since Q2 2007) the ASP has ranged from 437 to 674. You can see the ASPs here:
    However, the lowest prices were during the first gen's life when it was subsidized with revenue sharing not with up-front payments. Since Q2 2008 when the 3G was launched the ASP has remained in a range of 674 to 588. These numbers are obtained by taking the post-restatement figures and dividing by the number of units sold. These are not estimates.

    During this time, the phone has expanded to 70% international distribution.

    Management stated that they charge the same price to all carriers (see Tim's quote above) They have further stated that they are reducing exclusivity and as of Q1 only three carriers were exclusive out of 151

    Pricing analysis of the retail value of unlocked iPhones shows that they are sold at the ASP +retail margin.
    This is obviously in order to avoid channel conflict.

    I don't know how many other ways there are to prove that the ASP of the iPhone has nothing to do with AT&T, but I'll keep looking because it does not seem to catch on with some.
    Sep 8 08:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple Need to Cut iPhone Margins? [View article]
    70% of iPhone sales are outside the US. The article points out that Apple has not changed pricing when it switched from exclusive to non-exclusive distribution outside the US.
    Sep 8 02:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warning Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse [View article]
    In other words, if everybody in a position of power believes in astrology and major world decisions are made on astrological signs then it's a good idea to study astrology.

    It reminds me of life the Soviet era. If you were smart, you studied Marxism/Leninism since that determined your success in life regardless of whether it made any sense at all.

    Kudos to Zacky for steeping himself in the vast sea of technical bullshit so we don't have to.
    Aug 4 05:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment