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Horace Dediu
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Horace Dediu authors the asymco blog, which is available at blog.asymco.com. He has 8 years of experience as an industry analyst and business development manager at Nokia, preceded by 6 years of startup software development.
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  • iPod touch made up 37.7 percent of all iOS devices sold so far
     On September 1st, Apple announced that 120 million iOS devices were sold to date.
     
    We know that there were 59.6 million iPhones sold through June (from SEC filings)
     
    We also know that 3.2 million iPads were sold.
     
    If we assume about 8 million iPhones and 4 million iPads were sold during August and July, the total number of iPod touch sold is 45.2 million.
     
    That is 37.7% of total units.
     
    In April I wrote that 41% of all iOS units sold were iPod touch to date.
     
    The expansion of iPhone distribution plus the addition of iPad as reduced the platform footprint for the iPod, but it’s still a sizable chunk. More than one in three iOS units in use are non-cellular devices. As the iPad rolls that number could move toward 50%.


    Disclosure: Long AAPL
    Tags: AAPL
    Sep 07 6:11 AM | Link | Comment!
  • iOS users downloading 17.6 million apps/day. Songs, not so much.
    Thirty days after the launch of the iTunes App Store, Apple announced that 60 million apps were downloaded in the first month of operations generating sales of $30 million. “This thing’s going to crest a half a billion, soon,” Jobs said adding that it may be a “$1 billion marketplace at some point in time.”
     
    Mr. Jobs was being modest.
     
    To see how modest we have the following data:



    If the current download rate is maintained (17 million apps/day) and if the pricing of $0.29/app is preserved, then $1.8 billion will have been spent on iOS apps this year.
     
    With the rate of downloads increasing as steeply as it is, $2 billion in sales is not unlikely in the third year of the store. Twice what Jobs was predicting for “some point in time”.
     
    The other line in the graph is the iTunes music download rate. I’ve written about it before and pointed out that the point of inflection in the download rate coincided with the increase in price for songs from $0.99 to $1.29. Not much more to say here except that the trend continues and music downloads continue to slow.
     
    As far as Apple is concerned, the slowdown in iTMS is more than offset by the increase in iTAS. As far as the music industry is concerned, I don’t think CD sales are increasing.


    Disclosure: long AAPL
    Sep 07 6:10 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Noteworthy data from the WWDC keynote
    1. The average selling price for the 5 billion Apps sold is 29c. Total value of all apps sold is $1.43 billion. The App Store will be a $1 billion/yr. business in 2010. Apple kept $428 million to fund the App Store operations during the last 2 years.  This number will likely triple next year.  

     
    2. App download rate increased to 16.4 million apps per day.  This is well above the iTunes music download rate of about 10 million songs per day. Curve fitting the App downloads shows that total Apps sold will be higher than total Songs sold. Cumulative revenues from Apps will overtake cumulative revenues from Songs next year. 

    3. iAd to give Apple 50% share of all US mobile display advertising. Total market of $250 million, $125 million for second half of which apple has $60 million already booked.

    4. 150 million iTunes accounts.  The number of accounts is now growing at 191k/day.
     


    Disclosure: long AAPL
    Tags: AAPL
    Jun 08 4:01 AM | Link | Comment!
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