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Howard Richman

 
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  • U.S. Net Exports to China Set Record 12-Month Low in May [View article]
    Diego,

    Thank you for the kind comments and for taking the time to follow my links.

    I only know of one paper that does a cost benefit analysis of balancing trade. It was put together by the Levy Economics Institute at Bard College. Instead of examining the scaled tariff, it examines Buffett's Import Certificates proposal for balancing trade. Here's a link to my blog posting about their analysis where you can find a link to their analysis:

    www.idealtaxes.com/pos...

    Howard
    Jul 14, 2011. 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Net Exports to China Set Record 12-Month Low in May [View article]
    Eduard,

    Let me know if you hear of any other candidates who advocate balanced trade (howard@idealtaxes.com). So far, she's the only one.

    Harry Truman was the best president of the 20th century from the standpoint of the American economy. His Marshall Plan, GI Bill, and rollover treatment of home sale capital gains laid the groundwork for 50 years of American properity. Compare his prosperity after WW II with the recession after WW I. You don't have to be sophisticated to have economic common sense.

    Howard
    Jul 13, 2011. 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Net Exports to China Set Record 12-Month Low in May [View article]
    Diego,

    Yes, the graph excludes services, since the Commerce Department does not report services trade by individual country on a monthly basis. However, U.S. net service exports with China are small compared with goods exports. For example, in 2010 U.S. net exports of goods to China were valued at -$273 billion while U.S. net exports of services to China were valued at $11 billion.

    No the graph is not deceptive regarding capital flows. Chinese capital flows in the opposite direction as trade. The Chinese government lends us the capital to buy their goods in order to keep the exchange rate from adjusting to a trade-balancing level. We get goods, debt and a stagnant growth rate. They get our assets, industry, and a booming economy.

    No the graph is not deceptive about the value of goods. The best measure of value is price.

    Howard
    Jul 13, 2011. 07:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Roubini: China Is Slowing the Recovery in the U.S. and U.K [View article]
    Ben Gee,

    There's something in the joint factsheet of the new agreement that addresses the issue you were mentioning: U.S. exports of technological products with military uses. The factsheet appears on the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs website here:

    www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/z...
    May 19, 2011. 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Roubini: China Is Slowing the Recovery in the U.S. and U.K [View article]
    flow5,

    The Obama administration tried to address some of this technological and intellectual property theft at the third meeting of the U.S.-China Strategic & Economic Dialogue. A joint factsheet about the agreement appears on the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs website here:

    www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/z...

    Could you read it and comment here about how well it addresses the problem?

    The first thing I noticed is that it gives China a free pass to continue currency manipulations. I'm trying to figure out what Obama got in return for letting China slow our economic recovery.
    May 19, 2011. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Roubini: China Is Slowing the Recovery in the U.S. and U.K [View article]
    dybydx,

    You are correct in your assesment of protective tariffs . They reduce imports and exports. You are incorrect about scaled tariffs which decrease imports but increase exports.

    There is a link in the article to the scaled tariff proposal, should you wish to learn more about it.
    May 19, 2011. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why the Weaker Dollar Won't Help Exports Much [View article]
    Ben Gee,

    If the U.S. enacts the scaled tariff and China still refuses to take down its many tariff and non-tariff barriers to U.S. products, the United States would buy less from China and more from countries with whom our trade is balanced -- countries that buy more from us when we buy more from them.
    May 6, 2011. 06:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'New Depression' Not Over Yet [View article]
    Graham and Dodd,

    Although Keynes made a fortune on gold mining stocks during the Great Depression, he switched into other stocks at the right time.

    Incidentally, he also predicted our current depression, writing in the chapter about mercantilism of his 1936 magnum opus (The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money):

    "(A) favorable [trade] balance, provided it is not too large, will prove extremely stimulating; whilst an unfavorable balance may soon produce a state of persistent depression." (p. 338)
    Apr 28, 2011. 05:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'New Depression' Not Over Yet [View article]
    Michael Clark,

    Whoops, I meant to address my comment, just above, to Tack not you. I agree with you.
    Apr 28, 2011. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'New Depression' Not Over Yet [View article]
    PampanoFrog,

    Thank you for pointing out that I am saying the same things now that I said in 2009. Indeed, my predictions have all been coming true. I have not had to revise my basic theory that the key to stable growth is: (1) balanced budgets, (2) balanced monetary growth and (3) balanced trade.

    Ignoring that prescription often leads to disaster. Obama has been compensating for unbalanced trade with severely imbalanced budgets. Bernanke has been copensating for unbalanced trade with severely unbalanced monetary growth.
    Apr 28, 2011. 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'New Depression' Not Over Yet [View article]
    MC,

    You are correct about the overall picture, but you are missing the fine detail.

    In 1936, the Federal Reserve overly expanded money supply, just as Bernanke is doing now. In 1936, M1 grew by 14.3%, M2 grew by 11.3%, real GDP grew by 13.5%.

    The exanding money supply of 1936 resulted an accelleration in the CPI inflation rate from 1.0% deflation in 1936 to 3.5% inflation in 1937. This in turn led the Fed to put the brakes on monetary growth, causing real GDP to actually shrink in 1938.

    The Fed's over-expansion of money supply in 1936 followed by its under-expansion in 1938 led Milton Friedman to advocate that the Fed be required to follow a constant money growth rule.
    Apr 28, 2011. 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trade Data is Bleak: Exports Down, Imports Down, Growth Estimates Down [View article]
    Ben,

    China's purchases of world commodities peak each year in March, which causes a run-up in world commodity prices and also explains China's temporary trade deficits. Why are Chinese commodity purchases cyclical?
    Apr 15, 2011. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What 3% Inflation Would Do to House Prices Over Next 4 Years [View article]
    If we continue to let mercantilist countries steal our manufacturing sector, I expect that median income will continue to be stagnant, or decline.

    As middle-class workers lose good-paying jobs to imports, they take unemployment compensation or worse-paying jobs in the service sector. If trade were balanced, they would be getting better paying jobs producing exports.
    Mar 31, 2011. 12:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retired Gulf Oil VP Has It Right About Energy [View article]
    Cosmodog,

    Let me know when you are running for office! Your plan sounds pretty good to me!
    Mar 30, 2011. 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retired Gulf Oil VP Has It Right About Energy [View article]
    Ray,

    You are correct that some oil producing countries would respond to a scaled tariff by leaving oil in the ground for pumping later. That's one reason why the three planks of the Campbell plan make so much sense if combined: (1) balance budgets, (2) develop domestic energy, and (3) balance trade.

    I don't think that an energy tax would be necessary. The scaled tariff would make energy imports more expensive while at the same time encouraging the development of domestic resources. The government could also help get CNG (compressed natural gas) filling stations springing up so that people could switch their vehicles from gasoline to the lower-priced CNG.
    Mar 25, 2011. 04:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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