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John B. Sanfilippo: Severely Mispriced With Significant Near-Term Upside
- Trading at a very low multiple for a CPG with high returns, low economic sensitivity, and an attractive growth profile with limited capex needs.
- Ongoing mix shift leading to significant margin expansion and value creation.
- Recent overreaction/misunderstanding surrounding immaterial news has created a unique buying opportunity.
- Stock has +50% upside and potentially upwards of 140% in the event of a sale.
Control4: No Control Of Its Destiny
- Structurally flawed business model and sells a single technology product that is rapidly falling into obsolescence.
- Facing insurmountable competitive headwinds following Apple, Google, Samsung, Microsoft and others’ entrance into home automation in 2014.
- Produces an uncompetitive, antiquated hardware product, an overstated market potential, marginal IP, generates no recurring revenue and deserves a significantly lower multiple.
Black Diamond: A Very Attractive And Timely Short With A +50% Near-Term Return Potential
- Sold off its most attractive, highest margin and only profitable brand.
- Ongoing business with much lower margins and sharply negative earnings.
- Now expanding into highly competitive and mature categories where it has zero prior experience.
- Large recent discounts and unfavorable channel checks indicate these ongoing new product roll-outs are a disaster.
Higher One: A Terminal Short With A Number Of Ways To Win
- ONE is a broken business model that is under severe pressure on all sides.
- ONE’s equity is a zero under a number of scenarios -- several of which are not reflected in the current stock price but will likely play out over the near term.
- The stock has clearly been under pressure this year, but $160M of equity value still remains.
- ONE is a terminal short with a very attractive risk/ reward profile.
John B. Sanfilippo: Transformed CPG Company With Large Upside
- Growing consumer packaged goods company trading at a significant discount – 6.5x EV/EBITDA and 7.5x EBITDA-capex.
- Transformed into high return, non-cyclical, branded business with stable earnings.
- +75% upside with near-term catalysts.
Chegg Will Soon Be In Amazon's Rear-View Mirror
- Intensifying competition from Amazon and Staples (prices cut over 30% YTD alone).
- Increased financial challenges and cash constraints coming in the high volume fall semester rental period.
- Immediate challenges in textbook rental render the long-term potential for the digital segment irrelevant.
- Insider selling has begun.
Castlight: Overstated TAM And Existential Concerns
- Castlight has a flawed business model and is facing significant competition for a much smaller TAM than they have led investors to believe.
- Once people do even a scant amount of research this stock should reprice under $10 or 70% below where the stock is presently trading.
- If CSLT were to lose access to pricing data it buys from the big HMOs, the stock would be a zero overnight.
- Amira Nature Foods: Several Misconceptions And One Large Mis-pricing
- Amira Nature Foods: Only In America (Under The JOBS Act)
- Professional Diversity Network: Time To Find A New Career
- Susser Petroleum: Stable And Growing Yield With Appealing Structural Advantages
- Careview Communications Is A Terminal Short
- PhotoMedex: A Fad Product And A Challenging Future
- Conmed Presents Appealing Risk-Reward Opportunity
- School Specialty: Promotion Cannot Hide Facts
- CPI's Bleak Q3 Points To Dark Days Ahead
- SCHS: Impaired Business With Bleak Prospects
- The Brick: A Deep Value Stock With Catalysts
- Hastings Entertainment: Obsolete Business In Secular Decline
- The Brick Offers A Unique Deep Value Opportunity