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Howie Man

 
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  • Black Diamond: A Very Attractive And Timely Short With A +50% Near-Term Return Potential
       • Thu, Oct. 23 BDE 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Sold off its most attractive, highest margin and only profitable brand.
    • Ongoing business with much lower margins and sharply negative earnings.
    • Now expanding into highly competitive and mature categories where it has zero prior experience.
    • Large recent discounts and unfavorable channel checks indicate these ongoing new product roll-outs are a disaster.
  • Higher One: A Terminal Short With A Number Of Ways To Win
       • Thu, Sep. 25 ONE 21 Comments

    Summary

    • ONE is a broken business model that is under severe pressure on all sides.
    • ONE’s equity is a zero under a number of scenarios -- several of which are not reflected in the current stock price but will likely play out over the near term.
    • The stock has clearly been under pressure this year, but $160M of equity value still remains.
    • ONE is a terminal short with a very attractive risk/ reward profile.
  • John B. Sanfilippo: Transformed CPG Company With Large Upside
       • Tue, Aug. 19 JBSS 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Growing consumer packaged goods company trading at a significant discount – 6.5x EV/EBITDA and 7.5x EBITDA-capex.
    • Transformed into high return, non-cyclical, branded business with stable earnings.
    • +75% upside with near-term catalysts.
  • Chegg Will Soon Be In Amazon's Rear-View Mirror
       • Wed, Jun. 25 CHGG 19 Comments

    Summary

    • Intensifying competition from Amazon and Staples (prices cut over 30% YTD alone).
    • Increased financial challenges and cash constraints coming in the high volume fall semester rental period.
    • Immediate challenges in textbook rental render the long-term potential for the digital segment irrelevant.
    • Insider selling has begun.
  • Castlight: Overstated TAM And Existential Concerns
       • Thu, Mar. 27 CSLT 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Castlight has a flawed business model and is facing significant competition for a much smaller TAM than they have led investors to believe.
    • Once people do even a scant amount of research this stock should reprice under $10 or 70% below where the stock is presently trading.
    • If CSLT were to lose access to pricing data it buys from the big HMOs, the stock would be a zero overnight.
  • Amira Nature Foods: Several Misconceptions And One Large Mis-pricing
    Dec. 18, 2013 ANFI 7 Comments
  • Amira Nature Foods: Only In America (Under The JOBS Act)
       • Jun. 1, 2013 ANFI 14 Comments
  • Professional Diversity Network: Time To Find A New Career
    May. 16, 2013 IPDN 4 Comments
  • Susser Petroleum: Stable And Growing Yield With Appealing Structural Advantages
    Oct. 24, 2012 SUN Comment!
  • Careview Communications Is A Terminal Short
    Aug. 21, 2012 CRVW 1 Comment
  • PhotoMedex: A Fad Product And A Challenging Future
    Jun. 4, 2012 PHMD 3 Comments
  • Conmed Presents Appealing Risk-Reward Opportunity
    Mar. 29, 2012 CONM 5 Comments
  • School Specialty: Promotion Cannot Hide Facts
    Feb. 6, 2012 SCHS 3 Comments
  • CPI's Bleak Q3 Points To Dark Days Ahead
    Dec. 29, 2011 CPY 16 Comments
  • SCHS: Impaired Business With Bleak Prospects
    Editors' Pick • Dec. 16, 2011 SCHS 9 Comments
  • The Brick: A Deep Value Stock With Catalysts
    Nov. 15, 2011 BRKQF Comment!
  • Hastings Entertainment: Obsolete Business In Secular Decline
    Oct. 4, 2011 HAST 49 Comments
  • The Brick Offers A Unique Deep Value Opportunity
    Sep. 27, 2011 BRKQF 1 Comment