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Hurdle Turtle Investing  

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  • It's The Top Of The Ninth Inning [View instapost]
    No problem. I'm also adverse to some of the more complicated strategies that were proposed. You don't get points for difficulty. The point about CDs preventing you from doing something stupid is a good one. Also a good idea to be looking for non-cyclical companies with strong balance sheets in this environment as you mention.
    Jul 24, 2015. 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's The Top Of The Ninth Inning [View instapost]
    Agree it's time to act fearful

    I admire your ability to act. Can you think of anything better than going to cash? I received some good suggestions on my article but would be curious if you considered doing anything else?
    Jul 24, 2015. 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Burlington Stores: Tough To Justify The Current Price [View article]
    Excellent article on a stock I've been bearish on for months
    Apr 24, 2015. 12:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears And 7-Foot Hurdles [View article]
    Really enjoyed this, thanks.
    Jan 23, 2015. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Introduction To SCHB: A Replacement Fund For SPY [View article]
    The biggest difference is in liquidity. SPY is much larger and more liquid than SCHB. This is why big institutional investors like David Tepper use SPY, but for a small OPMI investor, SCHB is better.
    Dec 22, 2014. 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought Strayer Just Now [View article]
    Seeking Alpha has asked me to update my view on Strayer (STRA). This comment serves as my update.

    Lessons Learned:
    My core thesis on Strayer in July 2013 was that for-profit education stocks were oversold due to basket shorting by short sellers such as Jim Chanos. I argued that these bets implied a generalization that all for-profit education is unsustainable. I thought this generalization was incorrect. Then and now I agreed that most of the industry was not offering strong educational value, was guilty of predatory marketing, etc., but that a few players did not fit this mold. This short list of companies probably includes Strayer (STRA), Capella (CPLA), American Public Education (APEI), and possibly a few others. While the questionable players face regulatory and legal pressure (look at what happened to Corinthian Colleges (COCO)), I continue to think that these companies offering solid value to students will be left unscathed by regulators and ultimately reward shareholders. This thesis has proved valid thus far, as none of these companies has had any regulatory issues recently. In addition, Strayer stock is up about 73% since this article was published.

    Current View of Stock:
    Strayer recently reported a very strong Q3 2014 with new student enrollments up 5%, 10% excluding closed campuses. Management expects 2015 to be the trough year on earnings, and based on guidance for revenue to be down 2% and operating expenses flat to up 2%, the earnings decline should be minimal. The company continues to avoid regulatory issues and I expect performance will continue to improve. Strayer’s earnings are currently distorted by past growth capex running through D&A. LTM D&A is $33M vs. just $6M in capex. Therefore, EBITDA and FCF are better valuation metrics at this point. The stock trades at 12.7x EBITDA and 11.5x FCF. While I would not be surprised if Strayer stock continued to increase, I feel it is now close to fully valued and no longer the most interesting for-profit education play. This view is corroborated by the management’s reluctance to repurchase shares. No shares were repurchased in Q3 despite Executive Chairman Rob Silberman having a reputation for favoring aggressive repurchases.

    Instead, at this point I prefer and own a position in APEI, which I believe is currently a very similar story to what Strayer was last July. See my August article for more detail:
    Dec 4, 2014. 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Additional Data On Ruger And S&W [View instapost]
    in FY13 10-K, a table is provided with Ruger sell-through and adj NICS.
    Oct 13, 2014. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Simple Regression Debunks A Simple Short Thesis; Buy Sturm, Ruger And Smith & Wesson [View article]
    Instablog update:
    Oct 11, 2014. 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barnes & Noble: Misunderstood Turnaround And Potential Breakup Play Has Up To 80% Upside [View article]
    I think GME would be a good addition to your comp peer group. It doesn't change the thesis though. Enjoyed this piece and commend your attention to detail.
    Oct 8, 2014. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Public Education: Best Of Breed And Misunderstood; Put This Baby Back In The Tub [View article]
    Management views much of the enrollment weakness as attributable to the after-effects of the gov shutdown and voluntary company efforts to avoid enrolling subprime students that will not persist or perform well. Enrollment starts will improve substantially without any action from the company just due to lapping the shutdown. Q4 will be an extremely easy comp.
    Oct 7, 2014. 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cognizant makes another healthcare-focused acquisition [View news story]
    Appreciate the Glassdoor check. Worth mentioning that CTSH CEO is one of the highest-rated on Glassdoor. I so hope this stock pulls back substantially.
    Oct 7, 2014. 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Collapse Of AutoZone Justified By Its Earnings Report? [View article]
    I agree, I think it's a very good buy right now, I'm just looking for a little bit more value though. I think it's a 1.5-2/5 right now, but I want a 1.
    Sep 22, 2014. 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Collapse Of AutoZone Justified By Its Earnings Report? [View article]
    4% isn't a huge move. I've been interested in this company for a while and will look back into it at $490 or so if it gets there.
    Sep 22, 2014. 03:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Public Education: Best Of Breed And Misunderstood; Put This Baby Back In The Tub [View article]
    They are very different investment cases. I don't feel nearly as secure that CECO will avoid the reg/legal issues, but the stock is quite a bit cheaper. I made a good bit of money several months back holding CECO for 2-3 months and I sort of think that's the best way to play it because of the uncertainty of the landscape, whereas APEI is more of a 'sit back for a few years and see what happens' sort of deal.
    Aug 29, 2014. 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q&A: Bed, Bath & Beyond Is Quoting Near 52-Week Low, Is It Buy-Worthy? [View article]
    Enjoy this format (though it would probably be more effective with more specific questions like "is BBBY's gross margin likely to fall further?" or "does BBBY have competitive advantages?") and very much agree with your conclusion. I think BBBY is a very clear hold here.
    Aug 26, 2014. 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment