A "strictly confidential" sustainability analysis prepared for eurozone officials paints a bleak picture of where Greece is headed, a "tailored downside scenario" suggesting the country will come nowhere near the 2020 120% debt/GDP target set by the IMF. Further, any gains from the PSI will be lost as a now-scared investor class will shun future Greek debt. [View news story]
Its a classic scenario of groupthink...
Here are some classic symtoms of Groupthink, per Paul Smith's article "Groupthink or Nuke Think":
Typical Groupthink symptoms: * The illusion of invulnerability. A feeling of power and authority is important to a decision-making group like a board. The danger is that the level of confidence implicit in their position may be so high that they believe any decision they make will be successful. * Rationalisation - explaining away objections to a given decision or plan, often on the basis that what has worked in the past ensures future success. * Illusion of unanimity. Eventually all the rationalisations and psychological pressures have their effect and a group coalesces around a decision.
China's underground lending market worked well until recently, with yield-hungry Chinese savers extending credit to private companies that couldn't get formal loans. The system is now showing signs of strain amid mounting business failures and a government crackdown on informal lending, which could result in an ill-timed liquidity squeeze. [View news story]
Yeah here is an interesting read regarding those maco #s u mentioned out of China... it got swept under the carpet during the whole "wikileaks saga" and i found it to be quite interesting http://tgr.ph/szqunW
China's underground lending market worked well until recently, with yield-hungry Chinese savers extending credit to private companies that couldn't get formal loans. The system is now showing signs of strain amid mounting business failures and a government crackdown on informal lending, which could result in an ill-timed liquidity squeeze. [View news story]
the problem is that it is IMPOSSIBLE to get any solid info out of China on their current economics/finance situation. the books are cooked and only they know what is going on inside their walls. thus, when you have a subject such as shadow banking/loan sharking, in an already secretive society, the odds that you'll get any sort of "substantial" data are slim to none.
^^Wyostocks hit the nail on the head. If anyone claims that social issues and economic issues are two seperate beasts, they need to have their head exminated.
The ECB will also be swapping its Greek paper for new debt, according to Die Welt. The bank expects to profit on the transaction and will distribute the gains to EU governments. Risk markets are popping anew, S&P 500 +0.9%. Euro buying $1.3115 against $1.2975 2 hours ago. (see also) [View news story]
mf- common sense and the movement in equity markets has been an inverse relationship for some time now :)
The ECB will also be swapping its Greek paper for new debt, according to Die Welt. The bank expects to profit on the transaction and will distribute the gains to EU governments. Risk markets are popping anew, S&P 500 +0.9%. Euro buying $1.3115 against $1.2975 2 hours ago. (see also) [View news story]
I am saying the same thing! If anything this should fill the markets with more fear, not less... If they are stooping this low, their bag of tricks must be pretty skimp at this point. Throwing darts at a brick wall and hoping one sticks
The ECB will also be swapping its Greek paper for new debt, according to Die Welt. The bank expects to profit on the transaction and will distribute the gains to EU governments. Risk markets are popping anew, S&P 500 +0.9%. Euro buying $1.3115 against $1.2975 2 hours ago. (see also) [View news story]
Pandora: Profitability On The Way, Business Model Is Stronger Than It Appears [View article]
But is P really free when it's milking your wireless bill for all thats its got? There is a paradox here where P wants people to listen to it's service for as many hours a day/week as possible, but with mobile music being the new thing, no one wants to keep their smartphone running Pandora as it juices the hell out of their data usage.
Pandora: Profitability On The Way, Business Model Is Stronger Than It Appears [View article]
they are merely testing it with their premium members but we cannot rule out the fact that this will not be opened up to the public in the future. I am a paying member of spotify, and for good reason. It offers me everything pandora offers, as well as the ability to build my own playlists, choose my own tracks, and most importantly, DOWNLOAD the music to my phone for OFFLINE listening. My favorite artists get synced right to my phone and computer and can be listened to at any time i please. I am in college and very socially active. I do not know a single student that uses pandora anymore. Spotify is taking them to the woodshed, and they have only been in the states for less than a year.
Pandora: Profitability On The Way, Business Model Is Stronger Than It Appears [View article]
I feel bad for all the investors buying into the P hype. Spotify's business model is going to eventually eat Pandora's for breakfast and anyone with a knowledge of the music and consumer industry knows this.
I feel bad for the older investors who read articles like these and believe that Pandora is the "young" generation's favorite way to listen to music, and they will just HAVE to monetize the popularity at some point.
All trends point towards Pandora being irrelevant 5 years from now. I would compare it to the Netflix of music but quite frankly that would be a huge compliment. NFLX has already profited and trades at an actual P/E ratio (not n/a)... NFLX has already signed on exclusive content, and NFLX still does not have any formidable competitors in the streaming video space. Pandora has a SLEW of competitors and has no exclusive content.
Spotify has already developed a "Pandora" function that gives you random songs of various artists based on what your likes are. You can than rank the random selections with a "up/down" system and it uses these inputs to change it's recommendations on the spot. It is called "Spot-ON" and you can google it and read more about it.
Is It Really Time To Jump Into Stocks? [View article]
I agree with you somewhat but I think the election in November is somewhat of a wild card here and Bernanke and crew might allow the pullback to happen early and then use the remaining time to ramp it up into November. Also on the table is the Iran / Israel situation which can easily elevate into something very serious that could shock the global markets. I think the unpredictability of the latter makes it something that is very concerning to any new money entering the market here. I haven't even mentioned the possibility for a "Black Swan"-type event to come out of Europe. Much of the EZ austerity measures have yet been enacted. Bond vigilantes can turn on the dime if they start to lose confidence in the ECB as a backstop. The EFSF is a joke. And then, you have a China hard landing scenario that is completely possible as well! There are a number of various catalysts for yet another financial crisis and the stakes have never been higher. The ultra-low volume in the markets hint that the "buy-side" demand is not nearly as strong as the gains tell. A nice run by a small number of large caps has carried all the indexes up with them. I put my money on the VIX rising two weeks ago and I think last week just the tip of the iceberg. I think the "fear" will return soon. Disclosure: Long TVIX
IBM: Big Transformation + Big Data = Big Returns [View article]
A "strictly confidential" sustainability analysis prepared for eurozone officials paints a bleak picture of where Greece is headed, a "tailored downside scenario" suggesting the country will come nowhere near the 2020 120% debt/GDP target set by the IMF. Further, any gains from the PSI will be lost as a now-scared investor class will shun future Greek debt. [View news story]
Here are some classic symtoms of Groupthink, per Paul Smith's article "Groupthink or Nuke Think":
Typical Groupthink symptoms:
* The illusion of invulnerability. A feeling of power and authority is important to a decision-making group like a board. The danger is that the level of confidence implicit in their position may be so high that they believe any decision they make will be successful.
* Rationalisation - explaining away objections to a given decision or plan, often on the basis that what has worked in the past ensures future success.
* Illusion of unanimity. Eventually all the rationalisations and psychological pressures have their effect and a group coalesces around a decision.
Check. Check. andddd Check.
China's underground lending market worked well until recently, with yield-hungry Chinese savers extending credit to private companies that couldn't get formal loans. The system is now showing signs of strain amid mounting business failures and a government crackdown on informal lending, which could result in an ill-timed liquidity squeeze. [View news story]
China's underground lending market worked well until recently, with yield-hungry Chinese savers extending credit to private companies that couldn't get formal loans. The system is now showing signs of strain amid mounting business failures and a government crackdown on informal lending, which could result in an ill-timed liquidity squeeze. [View news story]
The Greece Game Turns Chaotic [View article]
The Greece Game Turns Chaotic [View article]
Friday Finale: This Is The End, But For Who? [View article]
The ECB will also be swapping its Greek paper for new debt, according to Die Welt. The bank expects to profit on the transaction and will distribute the gains to EU governments. Risk markets are popping anew, S&P 500 +0.9%. Euro buying $1.3115 against $1.2975 2 hours ago. (see also) [View news story]
The ECB will also be swapping its Greek paper for new debt, according to Die Welt. The bank expects to profit on the transaction and will distribute the gains to EU governments. Risk markets are popping anew, S&P 500 +0.9%. Euro buying $1.3115 against $1.2975 2 hours ago. (see also) [View news story]
The ECB will also be swapping its Greek paper for new debt, according to Die Welt. The bank expects to profit on the transaction and will distribute the gains to EU governments. Risk markets are popping anew, S&P 500 +0.9%. Euro buying $1.3115 against $1.2975 2 hours ago. (see also) [View news story]
Pandora: Profitability On The Way, Business Model Is Stronger Than It Appears [View article]
Pandora: Profitability On The Way, Business Model Is Stronger Than It Appears [View article]
Pandora: Profitability On The Way, Business Model Is Stronger Than It Appears [View article]
Pandora: Profitability On The Way, Business Model Is Stronger Than It Appears [View article]
I feel bad for the older investors who read articles like these and believe that Pandora is the "young" generation's favorite way to listen to music, and they will just HAVE to monetize the popularity at some point.
All trends point towards Pandora being irrelevant 5 years from now. I would compare it to the Netflix of music but quite frankly that would be a huge compliment. NFLX has already profited and trades at an actual P/E ratio (not n/a)... NFLX has already signed on exclusive content, and NFLX still does not have any formidable competitors in the streaming video space. Pandora has a SLEW of competitors and has no exclusive content.
Spotify has already developed a "Pandora" function that gives you random songs of various artists based on what your likes are. You can than rank the random selections with a "up/down" system and it uses these inputs to change it's recommendations on the spot. It is called "Spot-ON" and you can google it and read more about it.
Is It Really Time To Jump Into Stocks? [View article]