Seeking Alpha

Hype Zero

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Hype Zero's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Dean Foods Spin-Off Offers Healthy Profits [View article]
    I was basing it on the initial prospectus and a median IPO price of $15. The initial prospectus has 150 million class B shares and 20 million Class A shares.
    Oct 17 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dean Foods Spin-Off Offers Healthy Profits [View article]
    Their valuation will be 2.55 billion ($15*170 million shares).
    Oct 17 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dean Foods Spin-Off Offers Healthy Profits [View article]
    Your percentages are off. Dean will hold 88% of the company (150 million class B shares) and they are IPOing (20 million class A shares).
    Oct 17 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Seadrill Partners IPO [View article]
    Thanks for the comment.

    I never said it was not good for SDRL. Please give me what part of my analysis SDLP you disagree with? And are you participating in the IPO?
    Oct 17 11:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Seadrill Partners IPO [View article]
    Yes, they have a partial stake in the rigs, but they get partial income as well.
    Oct 17 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Seadrill Partners IPO [View article]
    No, I did not. I think it is fairly priced at $25 currently. You can check out my full analysis at http://www.hypezero.co. SUSS is/was better than SDLP because
    1.) During SUSP IPO, the yield was 8.5%
    2.) It is higher growth. It is possible that they could give a $2 dividend in 2013
    3.) It is a much safer stream of revenue. Over 50% of their revenue is fixed at the 3 cent profit margin from parent. Over 90% of revenue have a fixed fee per gallon charge. SDLP contracts after couple of years and who knows where rates are going to be at that time.
    Oct 16 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Seadrill Partners IPO [View article]
    I agree. I think this is good for the parent SDRL.
    Oct 16 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Seadrill Partners IPO [View article]
    Thank you for the feedback. I am interested to see what the pricing ends up being and how the stock behaves over the next month.

    If you have other interesting points, feel free to get in touch personally at amitd@hypezero.co and if you are interested in investing ideas in general, please subscribe at http://www.hypezero.co
    Oct 16 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Seadrill Partners IPO [View article]
    Thanks for the comment.

    1.) None of the four rigs SDLP is getting have a day rate exceeding $550k.
    2.) Since you are a SDLR holder, I do like this IPO for them since it will give them faster growth. Build and then get cash right away by dumping it to SDLP. Tangible book value for this ipo is below $10.
    3.) If you are a long time bull on the industry, then why not just stick with SDRL.
    4.) The unite are not paid for after 4 years. The rates are essentially guaranteed for 4 years since the first contract expires in 2015.
    5.) A 7% dividend with limited upside for years is not great in my book. There are plenty of preferred that will pay above 7+% with limited risks.
    6.) I understand you are an expert in the industry, but there is no guarantee rates are going to go up.

    As a industry expert, how long do you think these 4 rigs will last on average?
    Oct 16 11:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Sears Spin-Off [View article]
    If still interested in Sears Hometown, I wrote a follow up article on http://www.hypezero.co
    Oct 11 08:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genie Energy: Small Cap Value Stock With Upside 'Call Option' Attached [View article]
    Less than 20% complete exchange offer http://www.hypezero.co. Guess everyone knew shares are better than preferred
    Oct 10 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genie Energy: Small Cap Value Stock With Upside 'Call Option' Attached [View article]
    Agreed with the risk/reward part. I'm curious to see what happens in 3rd quarter with IDT Energy. Let's revisit this issue then.

    Please subscribe at http://www.hypezero.co if you get a chance.
    Oct 9 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genie Energy: Small Cap Value Stock With Upside 'Call Option' Attached [View article]
    It if funny they took out that slide about customer acquisition cost on their latest slide. I did see it on their initial 2011 presentation.

    Also, do you notice EBDITA going down from 2009 ($45.5), 2010 ($38.0), 2011 ($22.5)? Is this seasonal? During those years, they were flatlined at 400k meters and SG&A expense was highest in 2011.

    I will agree with you that newer customers will have a higher churn rate.

    Maybe we agree to disagree on numbers, but the fact is they are in a very competitive market with no moat. It is hard to keep customers when they have no loyalty and no yearly contract.
    Oct 9 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nacco Industries Unlocking Value With Spin-Off [View article]
    :-) I feel a lot of these ratings are computer automated.
    Oct 8 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genie Energy: Small Cap Value Stock With Upside 'Call Option' Attached [View article]
    I did not see anywhere in the Investor Relations about the $25 million number. Even so, it does not matter.

    Their churn rate (6.6% MONTHLY) is too high. The customers they are acquiring are not profitable. Compare their churn rate to for example Just Energy, it is not even close. Just Energy is averaging, if I remember correctly, is like 20%+ YEARLY.

    Last quarter they had 100k meters added, but 20k net because of the churn and that was with the extra customer acquisition cost. I would give it a higher valuation if they could do a EBDITA $20 million every year, but I think their EBDITA is going to fall in the coming quarters.
    At the churn rate (6.6% monthly) they have and if they do dont spend any money on customer acquisition, this is what their number of customers would look like:
    500k - Month 0467k - Month 1436k - Month 2407k - Month 3
    Yes, they might have a high EBDITA in the first year, but company would be done after a couple of years...
    Oct 7 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
109 Comments
32 Likes