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  • Genie Energy: Small Cap Value Stock With Upside 'Call Option' Attached [View article]
    I agree with you that the shares are undervalued here and they are the way to go instead of the preferred.

    However, I question the valuation of IDT Energy. Trailing EBDITA is around $16 million and EBDITA is falling due to a higher churn rate amongst new customers added. For full valuation check out my analysis of Genie and preferred at http://www.hypezero.co.

    Also, there is significant capital expenditure coming up over the next few years as the company starts the pilot phase in Israel and tries to start in Colorado.

    But either way, def worth the risk.
    Oct 6 10:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nacco Industries Unlocking Value With Spin-Off [View article]
    FTD is a good stable business with good cash flow. However, the other businesses stink and management has been incompetent.
    Oct 6 12:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nacco Industries Unlocking Value With Spin-Off [View article]
    So, I think they are both fully valued right now. If you go to my site (http://hypezero.co) , after the spin-off, I wrote that at $43 NC was 20% undervalued based on my sum-of-parts valuation. At $50, it's almost reached my valuation, I think the max upside is $54. The whole P/E thing is hard because it discounts the value of Kitchen Collection, if you believe it has any value.

    If you have been in the stock (and hopefully you have), I would just get out because I dont think there is much upside in each stock.
    If you are interested check out the United Online spinoff, very similar to the Nacco one and let me know what you think.
    I have a write up on my site.
    Oct 4 08:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG Warrants Demystified [View article]
    It does not expire. There are other anti-dilution measure besides just dividend. Here is how the dividend one works out.

    SR1 = SR0 x (SP0 – C) / SP0
    where,
    SR0 = the Exercise Price in effect at the close of business on the record date
    SR1 = the Exercise Price in effect immediately after the record date
    SP0 = the Current Market Price as of the record date
    C = the excess of the amount in cash per share of Common Stock the Company distributes to holders over the Dividend Threshold Amount

    The Dividend Threshold Amount shall equal $0.675 per share of Common Stock in the aggregate in any twelve-month period.

    If you want to read the full anti-dilution measure look at their 8k filed with SEC.

    http://1.usa.gov/Qw3Rzz

    Email me at amitd@hypezero.co if you want to take any of this offline.
    Oct 4 12:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG Warrants Demystified [View article]
    Yes, your analysis is correct. I miswrote and wrote annual growth, when i meant a simpler calculation (1.26/8 years).

    The other thing that is hard to take into account is the anti-dilution measure for dividends because we don't know how much dividends AIG is going to pay. But it favors the stock over the warrants since the dividend has to be over .675c a year for the anti-dilution measure to take effect.

    Please contact me at http://www.hypezero.co if you want to discuss further.
    Oct 3 04:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tyco Spin-Off Not Worth It [View article]
    Completely agree with your assessment of the Comcast deal. Others I still feel have a chance of being bought out, but not as much as ADT.

    Please check out http://www.hypezero.co if you want more research on spin-offs.
    Sep 28 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nacco Industries Unlocking Value With Spin-Off [View article]
    Yes, I would buy HY at 5 times earnings or if NC was trading around $100 as it was just last month, but I don't feel comfortable holding onto any of them for the long term for the some of the reasons mentioned above (if this makes sense). In other words, I need a larger difference between the intrinsic value and the price to make me invest in NC. 
    Sep 28 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nacco Industries Unlocking Value With Spin-Off [View article]
    Thanks. Please check out our site http://www.hypezero.co.
    Sep 28 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tyco Spin-Off Not Worth It [View article]
    I think Comcast/ADT combo makes a lot of sense. The only way the shares of TYC (post spinoff) goes higher within next couple years is if spinoffs get bought.
    Sep 27 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG Warrants Demystified [View article]
    I thought about doing a more detailed article as you are suggesting, but did not want to over complicate it.
    Sep 27 12:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG Warrants Demystified [View article]
    I'll have to look at the Citi warrants and Citi. If you have done any type of analysis please send it to me. Would love to get a head start. Thanks.
    Sep 27 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG Warrants Demystified [View article]
    Good point about buying the stock on margin and comparing it to the warrants. I had not thought about it that way, but it makes a lot of sense. Is this what you are doing?
    Sep 27 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG Warrants Demystified [View article]
    I am not a Black-Scholes expert. But a couple of points, the leaps are priced better if you put in interest rate < 1 and get the volatility from the price of the leaps and then price the warrants based on the same volatility. Also, it is hard to do this because the warrants have anti-dilution adjustment which the leaps do not.
    Sep 27 12:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG Warrants Demystified [View article]
    Thanks!
    Sep 27 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tyco Spin-Off Not Worth It [View article]
    Agreed. I could see Verizon/Comcast paying even a 20%-25% premium to ADT shares. However, it is hard to hold a stock on a takeover possibility. Even with the premiums you have, that stock is not far from the $57.82. If the price moves up before Friday, I'm thinking of buying a $55 put.
    Sep 25 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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109 Comments
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