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  • Dean Undervalued, Easily Worth $20 [View article]
    Yes I agree with the valuation of WWAV. However, it is in line with some of the other "healthy" food segments. The low float also should keep the price up.

    Say, WWAV goes down to $15, that should be only a $1.50 hit on the shares of Dean. It will still be undervalued.

    One way to play it is short out the WWAV shares.
    Oct 29, 2012. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dean Undervalued, Easily Worth $20 [View article]
    Good point. Forgot to mention the goodwill impairment charge in 2011!
    Oct 29, 2012. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dean Undervalued, Easily Worth $20 [View article]
    The Fresh Dairy Direct contributes to the majority of revenue, with almost of $10 billion of the 13 billion+ revenue. It is the worst of the 3 businesses. It has low margins and is a volatile business that is dependent on commodity prices, fuel prices, etc... This was the exact the reason for the spin-off. It was hiding the true value of the WhiteWave business and the Morningstar business. I have assigned the valuation of Fresh Dairy Direct a low multiple as a result.

    They do have a lot of debt, but they are reducing it quite a bit after the spin-off. It will be around $2.1 billion after the spin-off. WhiteWave took about $900 million and they will use the 390 million from proceeds to pay off some more.

    Once they sell Morningstar, that debt will come down even more ~1.5 billion.

    Fresh Dairy Direct does generate good cash flow and management is focused on cutting expenses and increasing cash flow.

    It is naive to just look at numbers and assume this stock is a dud. It has limited downside based on the shares they hold of WWAV.
    Oct 29, 2012. 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Upcoming IPOs: WhiteWave Foods, Lehigh Gas Partners, MPLX [View article]
    This is what people have been speculating, but there is been no announcement from Dean about what they will do with the shares. Given that they own 150 million shares and the current float is over 23 million, my guess is that if they do this, you will be able to get the shares cheaper then what they are trading today.
    Oct 26, 2012. 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dean Foods Spin-Off Offers Healthy Profits [View article]
    Anybody have a price prediction for Dean or WhiteWave tomorrow?
    Oct 25, 2012. 11:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xerox: David Einhorn Likes This Buyback Champion For Its 30% Discount To Book [View article]
    $1 billon buyback in 2012. $300 million in dividend payments
    Oct 25, 2012. 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dean Foods Spin-Off Offers Healthy Profits [View article]
    Pricing above range at $17. Should see a nice pop on Dean shares tomorrow.
    Oct 25, 2012. 06:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Upcoming IPOs: WhiteWave Foods, Lehigh Gas Partners, MPLX [View article]
    LGP priced at $20.
    Oct 25, 2012. 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xerox: David Einhorn Likes This Buyback Champion For Its 30% Discount To Book [View article]
    I agree at a price to FCF ratio of 5. It is hard to go wrong here. See analysis on HypeZero, http://www.hypezero.co
    Oct 25, 2012. 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nacco Industries Unlocking Value With Spin-Off [View article]
    You still holding HY after Caterpillar's results?
    Oct 23, 2012. 12:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tronox: This 4.4% Dividend Yield Equity Trades At A Bargain 5x Earnings [View article]
    Great Article. Apparently the insiders agree with you. October 10th, big insider purchase for $3 million at $25/share.

    Also any thoughts on the warrants?
    Oct 19, 2012. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Seadrill Partners IPO [View article]
    It's trading around $24.5 today.
    Oct 19, 2012. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Seadrill Partners IPO [View article]
    I don't get it. But investors are starving for yields. LGP IPO looks real good right about now.
    Oct 18, 2012. 11:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dean Foods Spin-Off Offers Healthy Profits [View article]
    Just make sure, it is pretty highly valued. At $15, it will be over 30 times 2011 pro forma earnings and around 26-27 2012 earnings.
    Oct 18, 2012. 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dean Foods Spin-Off Offers Healthy Profits [View article]
    The expected pricing date is 10/25/2012
    Oct 17, 2012. 05:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
109 Comments
32 Likes