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  • Dean Foods Spin-Off Offers Healthy Profits [View article]
    Their valuation will be 2.55 billion ($15*170 million shares).
    Oct 17 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dean Foods Spin-Off Offers Healthy Profits [View article]
    Your percentages are off. Dean will hold 88% of the company (150 million class B shares) and they are IPOing (20 million class A shares).
    Oct 17 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Seadrill Partners IPO [View article]
    Yes, they have a partial stake in the rigs, but they get partial income as well.
    Oct 17 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Seadrill Partners IPO [View article]
    No, I did not. I think it is fairly priced at $25 currently. You can check out my full analysis at http://www.hypezero.co. SUSS is/was better than SDLP because
    1.) During SUSP IPO, the yield was 8.5%
    2.) It is higher growth. It is possible that they could give a $2 dividend in 2013
    3.) It is a much safer stream of revenue. Over 50% of their revenue is fixed at the 3 cent profit margin from parent. Over 90% of revenue have a fixed fee per gallon charge. SDLP contracts after couple of years and who knows where rates are going to be at that time.
    Oct 16 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Seadrill Partners IPO [View article]
    Thank you for the feedback. I am interested to see what the pricing ends up being and how the stock behaves over the next month.

    If you have other interesting points, feel free to get in touch personally at amitd@hypezero.co and if you are interested in investing ideas in general, please subscribe at http://www.hypezero.co
    Oct 16 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Sears Spin-Off [View article]
    If still interested in Sears Hometown, I wrote a follow up article on http://www.hypezero.co
    Oct 11 08:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genie Energy: Small Cap Value Stock With Upside 'Call Option' Attached [View article]
    Less than 20% complete exchange offer http://www.hypezero.co. Guess everyone knew shares are better than preferred
    Oct 10 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genie Energy: Small Cap Value Stock With Upside 'Call Option' Attached [View article]
    Agreed with the risk/reward part. I'm curious to see what happens in 3rd quarter with IDT Energy. Let's revisit this issue then.

    Please subscribe at http://www.hypezero.co if you get a chance.
    Oct 9 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genie Energy: Small Cap Value Stock With Upside 'Call Option' Attached [View article]
    It if funny they took out that slide about customer acquisition cost on their latest slide. I did see it on their initial 2011 presentation.

    Also, do you notice EBDITA going down from 2009 ($45.5), 2010 ($38.0), 2011 ($22.5)? Is this seasonal? During those years, they were flatlined at 400k meters and SG&A expense was highest in 2011.

    I will agree with you that newer customers will have a higher churn rate.

    Maybe we agree to disagree on numbers, but the fact is they are in a very competitive market with no moat. It is hard to keep customers when they have no loyalty and no yearly contract.
    Oct 9 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nacco Industries Unlocking Value With Spin-Off [View article]
    :-) I feel a lot of these ratings are computer automated.
    Oct 8 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genie Energy: Small Cap Value Stock With Upside 'Call Option' Attached [View article]
    I did not see anywhere in the Investor Relations about the $25 million number. Even so, it does not matter.

    Their churn rate (6.6% MONTHLY) is too high. The customers they are acquiring are not profitable. Compare their churn rate to for example Just Energy, it is not even close. Just Energy is averaging, if I remember correctly, is like 20%+ YEARLY.

    Last quarter they had 100k meters added, but 20k net because of the churn and that was with the extra customer acquisition cost. I would give it a higher valuation if they could do a EBDITA $20 million every year, but I think their EBDITA is going to fall in the coming quarters.
    At the churn rate (6.6% monthly) they have and if they do dont spend any money on customer acquisition, this is what their number of customers would look like:
    500k - Month 0467k - Month 1436k - Month 2407k - Month 3
    Yes, they might have a high EBDITA in the first year, but company would be done after a couple of years...
    Oct 7 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genie Energy: Small Cap Value Stock With Upside 'Call Option' Attached [View article]
    I agree with you that the shares are undervalued here and they are the way to go instead of the preferred.

    However, I question the valuation of IDT Energy. Trailing EBDITA is around $16 million and EBDITA is falling due to a higher churn rate amongst new customers added. For full valuation check out my analysis of Genie and preferred at http://www.hypezero.co.

    Also, there is significant capital expenditure coming up over the next few years as the company starts the pilot phase in Israel and tries to start in Colorado.

    But either way, def worth the risk.
    Oct 6 10:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nacco Industries Unlocking Value With Spin-Off [View article]
    FTD is a good stable business with good cash flow. However, the other businesses stink and management has been incompetent.
    Oct 6 12:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nacco Industries Unlocking Value With Spin-Off [View article]
    So, I think they are both fully valued right now. If you go to my site (http://hypezero.co) , after the spin-off, I wrote that at $43 NC was 20% undervalued based on my sum-of-parts valuation. At $50, it's almost reached my valuation, I think the max upside is $54. The whole P/E thing is hard because it discounts the value of Kitchen Collection, if you believe it has any value.

    If you have been in the stock (and hopefully you have), I would just get out because I dont think there is much upside in each stock.
    If you are interested check out the United Online spinoff, very similar to the Nacco one and let me know what you think.
    I have a write up on my site.
    Oct 4 08:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tyco Spin-Off Not Worth It [View article]
    Completely agree with your assessment of the Comcast deal. Others I still feel have a chance of being bought out, but not as much as ADT.

    Please check out http://www.hypezero.co if you want more research on spin-offs.
    Sep 28 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
109 Comments
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