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Ian Agar

 
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  • Retrophin's Press Releases Have A Lot Of Sugarcoating [View article]
    If you look at the Form 4, the vast majority of those shares were "previously delivered to a third party in consideration for services that were never rendered and were subsequently returned to the reporting person." Also, the purchase price and the sale price are $0.52 cents apart, with a purchase price of $14.62 and a sale price of $15.14; the shares were not acquired prior to Friday's rise. Further, Shkreli still owns over 2.8 million shares after Friday's sale.

    So your claim that this is material to Shkreli's reputation is moot.

    Source: http://bit.ly/1iTBdVd
    Jun 4, 2014. 06:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retrophin's Press Releases Have A Lot Of Sugarcoating [View article]
    If Mr. Shkreli still was looking to make money the hedge fund way, wouldn't he be short his own company? Obviously this isn't the case. Also, I doubt people are waiting to see what he says on Twitter before making investing decisions, so your assertion that his Tweets were trying to trump up neutral news is speculation, at best. You mentioned that his "THANK GOD" tweet is evidence he was a lousy trader at the hedge fund. Do you really think your assertion would hold up in court? I can see it now: "The suspect murdered a man because he said 'no THANK GOD' when asked if he obeys the law." That would not fly far at all.

    Also, a product is NOT going to sell itself. Coca Cola is still running advertisements in every space it can, yet it is an obvious legend of all time. Are you suggesting that successful drugs need no sales team at all? As said above, the diseases these drugs target are rare. In psychology, the term "availability heuristic" means a person makes a decision or conclusion based on the most recently available memories, such as a doctor making a diagnosis based on similarities to a show he watched the night prior. Medical doctors may NEVER run across these rare diseases, at least in an obvious, easy-to-diagnose manner. This is clearly where the need for sales, marketing, and publicity are needed--how would medical doctors prescribe a drug that they may not even know exists since the target consumer is such a rarity to begin with?
    Jun 3, 2014. 12:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprouts Farmers Market's Stock Price Should Wilt Before You Buy [View article]
    Hi Webdez1! Thank you for reading. I am sorry to hear about your loss. I don't hold a thoroughly researched opinion at this time on Sprout's stock, but I will echo a lot of what "howlda" mentioned to you.

    I agree in that the market currently seems to be unpredictable at times, but this can be to your advantage in resolving your loss on SFM. For example, Bank of America (BAC) was on a steady track over the last year to two years to be the poster child for a buy-and-hold stock rebound, as Warren Buffet's large investment in the bank appeared to be paying off. The stock went from $7.50 to a recent peak of $18, but after the bank announced their accounting slip-up, it has dropped to the $14's right now unexpectedly. Now may be a buying time, or it may be the start of a greater loss. Playing it day-by-day, however, could be very profitable; sometimes there may be small patterns, like one day a stock is down 2% on no news, then it rebounds the following day by 3%. That could be a 3% gain for you.

    Second, as howlda said, Whole Foods is seeing some trouble lately. This has definitely proven beneficial to Sprouts as they are direct competitors. This could provide Sprouts with the needed break to gain some leverage in the organic/natural food niche market, which may cause the stock to turnaround with time. I haven't researched Sprouts' most recent earnings report, but take a look particularly at their profit margins, revenue, and profit, and compare it to how their past outlook statements match up to these numbers. Is management steering the company in the right direction? Are they really taking advantage of competitor weakness?

    Thanks again for reading.
    May 10, 2014. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For J.C. Penney, Investors May Achieve A Bank Of America Style Recovery [View article]
    Hi Strategicinvestor! Thanks for your readership and comments. I cannot wager on anything at the moment, but I can say that I am more referring to the companies in terms of investment potential. There are many points that can be said of the companies and stock prices on various factors, but my thesis primarily involves a few certain key aspects. First, as you can judge by the price action of JCP today and in the past few trading sessions, momentum plays a large part in it. Same goes for BAC--even when the bank had an unprofitable quarter, the price action swayed greatly depending on what the overall sentiment was. For example, when Warren Buffet announced his famous investment in BAC, the stock jumped over 9% (http://cnnmon.ie/1aYSb2E) on the news alone. The same appears to be happening regarding the JCP CEO's recent $1 million purchase of company stock.

    Further, both companies have hit rock bottom prices, with BAC reaching $3.6 at the height of the mortgage crisis and JCP dropping to around $6.50. Both have since increased significantly, with BAC now over $15 and JCP over $10. Further, both companies have relied on wise decisions from reliable CEO's to fully unlock their turnaround potential. BAC CEO Brian Moynihan has steered the company away from its near bankruptcy-state a few years ago, and the same could potentially be said of Mr. Ullman of JCP. While former CEO Ron Johnson was brought in to revamp the company, he appears to have done far more damage than help. Yet, in only the second quarter (3Q 2013) that Mr. Ullman has been CEO since assuming his position this past April, JCP has already seen a year-over-year increase in online sales and same-store sales for the first time since December 2011.

    There are many other points and discussion topics that we could trade regarding the two companies but the above summarizes why, although BAC and JCP are two different businesses and have different profit sources, they are still similar from an investment standpoint.

    Thanks again for your feedback!
    Nov 27, 2013. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For J.C. Penney, Investors May Achieve A Bank Of America Style Recovery [View article]
    Very great point, 200Bucks. That is definitely something I did not think about but even further adds to my confidence in the stock. I am staying long for the long term and will add more on dips, in addition to swing trading at times. Big money maker in the making with JCP, in my opinion. Thanks for your comment!
    Nov 26, 2013. 08:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For J.C. Penney, Investors May Achieve A Bank Of America Style Recovery [View article]
    Thank you for your comment and readership, ems-99. I totally agree with you regarding a visit to JCPenney that I conducted this past weekend. It was bustling and I noticed the classic old pricing strategy in place. No longer was "everything" on sale at the everyday price; rather, I recognized the traditional targeted sales, with some items being higher priced than others. Business is back, pricing is back, I definitely see the recovery taking place. I think Mr. Ullman is really turning this ship around and the evidence is quite tangible.

    I enjoyed my trip to JCPenney, if for no other reason than to simply scope out the situation incident to my stock purchase. Thanks again for reading!
    Nov 26, 2013. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For J.C. Penney, Investors May Achieve A Bank Of America Style Recovery [View article]
    Hi doggiecool! The reason for this may be due to delays in article review, as SeekingAlpha for example has about a 24-hour editorial review time frame. Perhaps articles covering the CEO's stock purchase may start to surface tomorrow. Nonetheless, I hope you enjoyed reading in regards to the other positive aspects of this company's stock. Thanks for your readership!
    Nov 26, 2013. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For J.C. Penney, Investors May Achieve A Bank Of America Style Recovery [View article]
    Thank you for your readership! :)
    Nov 26, 2013. 02:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Safeway Should Cool Down Before Investors Purchase Shares [View article]
    Hi BudH! Thank you for your comment and readership. I look forward to seeing how the stock plays out over the next six months. As I mentioned, I do believe Safeway to be a great company; I am just uncertain of the future given the solid information so far. However, you bring up good points and I enjoy seeing reader feedback to expand my investing knowledge! Thanks!
    Nov 25, 2013. 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Deleted From The S&P 500 - How This Affects Its Share Price [View article]
    Thank you for providing a viewpoint based on research and facts. When I first read you were short JCP at the top of the article, I honestly thought it would be another bashing article (getting tired of those). But I enjoyed reading your factual analysis from previous experiences.

    I am long JCP and will find the coming few days to possibly be a buying opportunity on weakness. Warren Buffet, back in October, said he believes in JCP and is not worried about the retailer making a comeback--he was right on the money when he said the same about BAC (shares have doubled for him). I came to the same conclusion on JCP even before Buffet's comments, and I so far have made some money by swing trading JCP in addition to my core long position.

    Anyway, great article! Keep up the high-quality writing!
    Nov 25, 2013. 02:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Safeway Should Cool Down Before Investors Purchase Shares [View article]
    Thank you for your response. The reason it was not mentioned in my article was because the buyout was not the primary driver over the past 6-12 months of the stock price. If you look at the 6-month chart, (http://yhoo.it/1c1eQwC;range=6m;compare=;ind... you will notice that the share price was at approximately $32.90 on October 21,2013, the day before Reuters reported talks of a buyout. The stock slowly reached that point over the months prior.

    Therefore, while the buyout rumors shot the price to $35 after being reported, my article is analyzing the factual, material details that have brought the share price up to its current $32+ range over the past year--which were completely independent of any buyout rumors and is a price that was reached before any rumors of buyout surfaced. I believe the merit and topic of a potential buyout are suitable for a different article, which has already been covered anyway in previous SeekingAlpha articles, as the debate of such a buyout being practical or real is a whole separate issue. I also hold a personal journalistic integrity policy to not comment on unconfirmed rumors without having some kind of verified factual information to report on; that is not currently the case with such rumors.

    I appreciate your readership. Thank you for your comment and I hope I have addressed any concerns you may have had.
    Nov 23, 2013. 06:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Windstream Did Not Miss Earnings - They Prudently Gained For The Future [View article]
    Hi Bob2bob! Thank you for your comment and readership. I completely agree with you: it is a solid investment for the long-term, and the dividend alone eventually will buy your shares. Each time earnings are released, usually the stock drops 3-5%, but I find this to be a buying opportunity. It usually rebounds, and a quick gain can be made this way, too.

    Thanks for your comment!
    Nov 22, 2013. 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Safeway Should Cool Down Before Investors Purchase Shares [View article]
    Hi AdamDivy! Thanks for your readership and your comment. I agree that Safeway was an excellent deal in the low-20's and below. I feel regretful for not buying shares then as it would have been a great investment, but hindsight is 20/20 I suppose! At this point, I am going to wait for it to go downward and then I may consider buying.

    Congratulations on your gains! Good luck to you.
    Nov 22, 2013. 05:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprouts Farmers Market's Stock Price Should Wilt Before You Buy [View article]
    Thank you for reading and commenting, Mr. Bryan. I am sorry regarding the 13% drop in stock price on your shares, but it is good to hear your purchase was limited in quantity and that you and your wife are enjoying the company ownership aspect of stock. I too have a few sentiment purchases. In the past year, I purchased Wendy's stock because I was completely obsessed with their pretzel sandwiches and I craved the feeling of being a partial owner of that delicious goodness every time I walked in a Wendy's location. I completely understand the joy such stock ownership brings.

    As for the dilution, it appears that yesterday they announced a detailed press release regarding dates and such. I look forward to following the stock in the coming year to see where it reaches a stable resting place after the dust settles.

    Thanks again!
    Nov 19, 2013. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Windstream Did Not Miss Earnings - They Prudently Gained For The Future [View article]
    Thank you very much for your readership and comment, buzzavery. I agree that this is a long-term process in transferring from a landline focused company to an enterprise and business focused company. So far, they are doing quite well in my eyes! I feel some people may see the company only skin-deep and conclude there is not much hope. However, I am holding for the long term, and so far the dividends I have collected have placed me in the green on WIN. I imagine the same may be true for you, and if so, congratulations!

    Thanks again!
    Nov 13, 2013. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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