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Ian Agar

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  • Why You Should Not Buy Netflix [View article]
    Part of the value in Seeking Alpha is the fact that people contribute (usually) quality articles with a variety of viewpoints to assist investors in deciding the best decision for the own situation.

    I don't think anybody is "muddying the water." I think it is excellent to have many different opinions, backed up by research and evidence, to help investors see different aspects of a certain potential investment. There is nothing wrong with this as you claim.
    Oct 31, 2012. 05:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Utilities: Boring Dead Weights Or Solid Long-Term Investments? [View article]
    I like your article. I am young and I am more focused on growth stocks and such, but hearing your wisdom and experience really puts life into perspective for me and inspires me to start focusing dividend growth stocks for when my next 20-30 years have passed. Good article!
    Feb 4, 2013. 12:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Deleted From The S&P 500 - How This Affects Its Share Price [View article]
    Thank you for providing a viewpoint based on research and facts. When I first read you were short JCP at the top of the article, I honestly thought it would be another bashing article (getting tired of those). But I enjoyed reading your factual analysis from previous experiences.

    I am long JCP and will find the coming few days to possibly be a buying opportunity on weakness. Warren Buffet, back in October, said he believes in JCP and is not worried about the retailer making a comeback--he was right on the money when he said the same about BAC (shares have doubled for him). I came to the same conclusion on JCP even before Buffet's comments, and I so far have made some money by swing trading JCP in addition to my core long position.

    Anyway, great article! Keep up the high-quality writing!
    Nov 25, 2013. 02:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Believe Us? Test The Teas Yourself [View article]
    There are several things I would like further consideration on.

    First, you mention, "We called and visited a few Teavana locations over Black Friday weekend to hear whether the Company's sales tactics have changed." How many did you visit and call on Black Friday, and how did it compare to your intial calls/visits before testing? You also mentioned calling the Customer Service telephone line and asking, prior to laboratory testing, but not after the results came back. I am hesitant to feel convinced they truly dictated a change in their pitch, post-lab results, simply because a few cashiers said other than you were expecting.

    Second, I also am hesitant to feel convinced based off of one lab's results. It is extremely common for companies, such as biotechnology companies, as well as scholars to test products and items through multiple different independent sources. To test it through one lab and consider their results to be absolutely conclusive-enough to build an entire short-stock case and publish it worldwide-is weak, in my opinion. I have a degree in Psychology and I know if I ever presented a thesis that not only supports my well-established personal bias, but also uses one single sole source of research that I hand-picked, my studies would hardly be reputable or viewed as competent. Research, on this scale and in this scope, should hold the same standards.

    With only one laboratory researching, there are many things that could have occured that would not be validated without a second opinion. This is common knowledge-again, consider the case of biotechnology companies testing their products through multiple labs and research studies. You recommend investors conduct their own research through their own contacts with a different laboratory. Do we have these results? Has anybody actually done this? Has this issue turned into a lawsuit? Surely you could enjoy a better financial gain through a large-scale lawsuit than simply hoping your stock position pays off in reaction to your research.

    In summary, considering your (assumably) large short position in TEA, and the fact that only one choice lab was consulted, I do not feel convinced but rather see this as a weak, biased science experiment.

    I hold no position in TEA nor do I have any plans to. I have no financial interest either way.
    Nov 28, 2012. 11:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monthly Pay Dividend Dogs: November 'Upsiders' Vs. 'Buy And Holders' [View article]
    Another advantage to monthly dividend payers is the benefits gained by reinvesting the dividends and, consequentially, obtaining more shares sooner. This can make a difference in stocks that noticeably change in price frequently-I'd rather get 10 more shares from my dividend now at, say $5, than wait until the end of the quarter when the price has rised to, say $7. Good article!
    Nov 21, 2012. 01:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retrophin's Press Releases Have A Lot Of Sugarcoating [View article]
    If Mr. Shkreli still was looking to make money the hedge fund way, wouldn't he be short his own company? Obviously this isn't the case. Also, I doubt people are waiting to see what he says on Twitter before making investing decisions, so your assertion that his Tweets were trying to trump up neutral news is speculation, at best. You mentioned that his "THANK GOD" tweet is evidence he was a lousy trader at the hedge fund. Do you really think your assertion would hold up in court? I can see it now: "The suspect murdered a man because he said 'no THANK GOD' when asked if he obeys the law." That would not fly far at all.

    Also, a product is NOT going to sell itself. Coca Cola is still running advertisements in every space it can, yet it is an obvious legend of all time. Are you suggesting that successful drugs need no sales team at all? As said above, the diseases these drugs target are rare. In psychology, the term "availability heuristic" means a person makes a decision or conclusion based on the most recently available memories, such as a doctor making a diagnosis based on similarities to a show he watched the night prior. Medical doctors may NEVER run across these rare diseases, at least in an obvious, easy-to-diagnose manner. This is clearly where the need for sales, marketing, and publicity are needed--how would medical doctors prescribe a drug that they may not even know exists since the target consumer is such a rarity to begin with?
    Jun 3, 2014. 12:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • For J.C. Penney, Investors May Achieve A Bank Of America Style Recovery [View article]
    Thank you for your readership! :)
    Nov 26, 2013. 02:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Safeway Should Cool Down Before Investors Purchase Shares [View article]
    Hi AdamDivy! Thanks for your readership and your comment. I agree that Safeway was an excellent deal in the low-20's and below. I feel regretful for not buying shares then as it would have been a great investment, but hindsight is 20/20 I suppose! At this point, I am going to wait for it to go downward and then I may consider buying.

    Congratulations on your gains! Good luck to you.
    Nov 22, 2013. 05:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Windstream Did Not Miss Earnings - They Prudently Gained For The Future [View article]
    Thank you for your comment, meichler. I seem to have overlooked including the "per quarter" indication in the article, so thank you for catching that. I appreciate your readership!
    Nov 13, 2013. 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Windstream Did Not Miss Earnings - They Prudently Gained For The Future [View article]
    Thank you for your comment, rgperrin. I received S&P's report through my broker and upon reading it recently, I was delighted to see their 5 star rating. They also painted a positive outlook on the company, and I was very happy to see some optimism, as well. So many articles are quick to bash Windstream, especially its dividend which has yet to slash its dividend, despite the fear on the street. I reiterate, much like in my article above, that I do not believe the company will slash the dividend any time soon. The company places it as a top priority and has made this clear in numerous press releases. The financials add up, in my opinion, too.

    Thanks for your readership and comment!
    Nov 13, 2013. 02:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Armour Residential Become A Value Trap? [View article]
    Another biased article...This is not the first article to have come out in the past three months saying that ARR is going down the drain and is horrible. There is money to be made if your purchases are timed right. If you bought in mid-August when it dipped below $4, you are at a profit and likely to continue to gain. The word on the street is now that after Friday's job report, which was a disappointment, the Fed may not taper starting this month, as previously thought. ARR rose on the news. If the Fed were to indeed decide not to taper so soon at their meeting in the coming week and a half, then ARR may see some great gains (albeit maybe only temporarily until the next round of tapering rumors, but enough time to book a worthwhile profit).

    I think ARR is all about timing right now. Perhaps buy and hold is not good to do at this volatile point, but it certainly is worthy of more time than a quick day trade or not buying at all. I'm holding for a little while longer.
    Sep 8, 2013. 11:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This 9%-Yielder Has Paid 146 Consecutive Dividends [View article]
    I am going to ignore StreetAuthority. Very misleading title and I agree with the majority here: this dividend is hardly anything to write about-a special dividend is exactly that: "special," not expected.
    Jan 25, 2013. 01:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks Not My Cup Of Tea At These Levels [View article]
    I completely disagree with this article. Teavana realistically could not have been priced in because SBUX has traded in the $50 area for several months now-well before the Teavana news was released.

    Additionally, the headline today is that Starbucks wants to open 1500 more stores in the United States alone, in addition to reaching 1500 in China by 2015. It also will report in January its first quarter with Verisimo sales, which supposedly have been doing quite well given the initial demand figures.

    Starbucks still has plenty of room to run and it hardly has reached a plateau. For the super short term-maybe two weeks to a month-there might not be much movement. But the winter season historically does amazing for the company, and there are plenty of new initiatives that have nowhere near been priced in.
    Dec 5, 2012. 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retrophin's Press Releases Have A Lot Of Sugarcoating [View article]
    If you look at the Form 4, the vast majority of those shares were "previously delivered to a third party in consideration for services that were never rendered and were subsequently returned to the reporting person." Also, the purchase price and the sale price are $0.52 cents apart, with a purchase price of $14.62 and a sale price of $15.14; the shares were not acquired prior to Friday's rise. Further, Shkreli still owns over 2.8 million shares after Friday's sale.

    So your claim that this is material to Shkreli's reputation is moot.

    Jun 4, 2014. 06:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprouts Farmers Market's Stock Price Should Wilt Before You Buy [View article]
    Hi Webdez1! Thank you for reading. I am sorry to hear about your loss. I don't hold a thoroughly researched opinion at this time on Sprout's stock, but I will echo a lot of what "howlda" mentioned to you.

    I agree in that the market currently seems to be unpredictable at times, but this can be to your advantage in resolving your loss on SFM. For example, Bank of America (BAC) was on a steady track over the last year to two years to be the poster child for a buy-and-hold stock rebound, as Warren Buffet's large investment in the bank appeared to be paying off. The stock went from $7.50 to a recent peak of $18, but after the bank announced their accounting slip-up, it has dropped to the $14's right now unexpectedly. Now may be a buying time, or it may be the start of a greater loss. Playing it day-by-day, however, could be very profitable; sometimes there may be small patterns, like one day a stock is down 2% on no news, then it rebounds the following day by 3%. That could be a 3% gain for you.

    Second, as howlda said, Whole Foods is seeing some trouble lately. This has definitely proven beneficial to Sprouts as they are direct competitors. This could provide Sprouts with the needed break to gain some leverage in the organic/natural food niche market, which may cause the stock to turnaround with time. I haven't researched Sprouts' most recent earnings report, but take a look particularly at their profit margins, revenue, and profit, and compare it to how their past outlook statements match up to these numbers. Is management steering the company in the right direction? Are they really taking advantage of competitor weakness?

    Thanks again for reading.
    May 10, 2014. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment