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Ian Bezek

 
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  • FXCM: This Equity Is Nearly Worthless
    Editors' Pick • Fri, Jan. 23 FXCM 50 Comments

    Summary

    • FXCM shares have rallied to a valuation far beyond what is justified based on its prior earnings power.
    • Its forward value will be harmed by more regulation and reputational damage.
    • Shares should trade for less than $1/share.
  • Sell NovaGold: Market Vastly Overvaluing Donlin
     • Wed, Jan. 14 NG 26 Comments

    Summary

    • NovaGold's primary prospect, Donlin, is receiving a $2bn valuation from the market.
    • This is inexplicable given comps to neighboring projects.
    • Donlin also is valued at roughly 4x its Net Present Value, which is equally illogical.
    • NovaGold has a spotty record of developing mining projects; this is particularly troublesome as environmental headwinds to Donlin mount.
    • Recent 30% run-up in NovaGold shares offers perfect opportunity to sell.
  • Rosetta Stone's Terminal Decline Continues Despite Acquisitions And Accounting Changes
     • Dec. 30, 2014 RST 23 Comments

    Summary

    • I described in great detail in 2011 why Rosetta Stone was a compelling short.
    • Since then, the company has gone on an acquisition binge and changed some accounting measures as part of its turnaround strategy.
    • These developments have attracted value investors, shoring up Rosetta Stone's shares.
    • The core business continues to melt away, and the new developments fail to change the company's downward trajectory.
    • Shares remain a great short opportunity.
  • China Zenix: This Probably Won't End Well
       • Dec. 24, 2014 ZX 12 Comments

    Summary

    • China Zenix Auto's stock looks stunningly cheap on the surface.
    • The company's past actions cast doubt on the reported numbers.
    • The company's recent dismissal of its auditor is another bad sign.
    • Investors should stay away from this value trap.
  • MeetMe? I'd Rather Not
       • Dec. 13, 2014 MEET 13 Comments

    Summary

    • MeetMe gets tons of promotional press.
    • The company's results in no way justify the enthusiasm.
    • This stock isn't going anywhere fast, I see no basis for bullish sentiment.
  • Don't Let The Bears Snow You: Why Peak Resorts Is Worth $13/Share
       • Dec. 12, 2014 SKIS 23 Comments

    Summary

    • My original long thesis is playing out: all 3 catalysts have been confirmed with hard data.
    • Nonetheless, shares have fallen after a misleading negative take on the company.
    • This article offers two parts. The first half addresses the negative chatter about Peak, and the second updates my original analysis.
    • The company's strong start to this Winter ski season and early initiation of the dividend serve as tangible reminders of why this stock has explosive near-term upside.
    • I reiterate my bullish outlook and raise my long-term target to $13/share.
  • They Say The End Is Near: It's 2004 All Over Again For Coca-Cola
    Editors' Pick • Dec. 2, 2014 KO 53 Comments

    Summary

    • In 2004, investor sentiment toward Coca-Cola hit an extreme low capped by a brutal editorial against KO management in the New York Times.
    • We have seen similar levels of negativity over the past month.
    • Critics are focused solely on weakness in developed markets; strength in developing markets will more than make up for this.
    • The long-term opportunity in KO today resembles that of 2004.
  • North Atlantic's Dividend Suspension Overshadows A Good Quarter
    Nov. 29, 2014 NADL 35 Comments

    Summary

    • North Atlantic turned in another good quarter with record EBITDA.
    • This positive was greatly outweighed by the dividend suspension.
    • I'm holding my shares. My buy call from last week was terribly wrong; however, nothing has changed with the long thesis to compel me to sell.
  • Peak Resorts: Neglected IPO Yields 6.5% With Three Catalysts For Imminent Upside
       • Nov. 26, 2014 SKIS 28 Comments

    Summary

    • Peak Resorts was the victim of a weak and neglected IPO.
    • Thanks to this, we can buy Peak with a fat 6.5% yield.
    • The 2014-15 ski season is shaping up great: Strong snows and low gas prices bode well.
    • 30% near-term gains: Peak should trade to north of $11 this quarter, this stock won't yield more than 5% for long.
  • North Atlantic Drilling: Buying Where There's Blood
    Nov. 21, 2014 NADL 105 Comments

    Summary

    • North Atlantic shares collapsed Wednesday, culminating a brutal three-month selloff.
    • There was no material negative news announced Wednesday.
    • The Exxon development doesn't seem likely to have any impact on earnings.
    • North Atlantic shares are a buy for those with a strong stomach.
  • You On Demand: What's Next Following The Post-Earnings Plunge
       • Nov. 15, 2014 YOD 2 Comments

    Summary

    • You On Demand posted strong revenue growth, better than I had expected.
    • Despite better revenues, the company posted another large loss as costs are still too high.
    • The company cut full-year guidance and shares dove nearly 20% in after hours trading.
    • I had anticipated weak earnings which confirmed my bear thesis.
    • However, I covered my short. You On Demand still a good short, but no longer compelling.
  • You On Demand: Unproven Business Model, Scant Revenues, 70% Downside
       • Nov. 11, 2014 YOD 10 Comments

    Summary

    • You On Demand's Video on Demand service attracts few subscribers and generates infinitesimal revenue.
    • There's no proof the business model will work in China where opposition is strong to paying for media content.
    • The Xiaomi announcement from last week has no bearing on You On Demand's business.
    • You On Demand shares are profoundly overvalued.
  • Xunlei Rebounds On New CTO Hire
    Nov. 5, 2014 XNET 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Xunlei shares had fallen sharply over the past month.
    • This is likely due to related company Kingsoft's profit warning and also a potential dispute with the MPAA.
    • Shares rebounded following the company's hiring of new CTO Mr. Lei Chen.
    • Xunlei is still one of my favorite longs heading into upcoming earnings.
  • Cheetah Mobile: Back On The Prowl
       • Oct. 20, 2014 CMCM 3 Comments

    Summary

    • I recommended taking profits in Cheetah Mobile at $29/share in August.
    • The stock has plunged since then, falling 40%.
    • Nothing fundamental has changed during the decline; this is a buying opportunity.
    • A newly announced partnership with Kingsoft serves as the catalyst for a turnaround.
  • Buying ZIV: A Better Option Than Shorting VXX
    Oct. 19, 2014 ZIV 56 Comments

    Summary

    • Both long ZIV and short VXX seek to benefit from an upcoming decline in volatility.
    • VXX shorts suffer from backwardation at present.
    • ZIV is not subject to this problem, and is currently the better option for long-term short volatility positions.
  • Gran Colombia's Great Cash Crunch
       • Oct. 14, 2014 TPRFF 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Gran Colombia faces a sharp cash shortage.
    • Current operations remain unprofitable.
    • Company needs a big change in gold prices or production costs to weather the storm.
  • Xunlei: China's Nascent Amazon.com Is A Steal
       • Oct. 2, 2014 XNET 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Alibaba is hyped as China's Amazon, but its business is totally different.
    • Xunlei, by comparison, is building a network of properties that closely resembles Amazon.
    • Xunlei's 53% owner, Lei Jun, founded Amazon China, and appears set on rebuilding it via Xunlei.
    • We have a chance to invest alongside him below XNET's IPO price.
    • With $7/share cash supporting the share price, Xunlei is a low-risk, high-reward opportunity.
  • Why Xunlei May Begin To Sprint Like A Cheetah
    Sep. 4, 2014 XNET 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Cheetah Mobile doubled since IPO, Xunlei is an extremely similar company whose stock hasn't yet popped.
    • Cheetah and Xunlei share same backers including the Chinese Steve Jobs; smartphone billionaire Lei Jun.
    • Xunlei will trade to $20/share should it follow Cheetah's footsteps.
    • Xunlei should also trade above $20/share based on valuation with comparable Chinese internet companies.
    • $7/share of cash; Xunlei's investors are protected from significant downside.
  • Take Profits In Cheetah Mobile And Buy Its Twin, Xunlei
       • Aug. 28, 2014 CMCM 5 Comments

    Summary

    • I recommended Cheetah Mobile (CMCM) in June at $21, it has rallied 40% since then.
    • CMCM remains a compelling growth story, last quarter's earnings blew out estimates.
    • That said, valuation may be stretched and CMCM has become a battleground stock with short sellers.
    • I have taken profits on CMCM and reallocated much of my Chinese internet exposure to Xunlei (XNET).
    • XNET is a similar story with same backers as CMCM that has not yet rallied, making this a fortuitous entry point.
  • Cheetah Sprints Higher As Investors Discover The Next Qihoo 360
       • Jun. 18, 2014 CMCM 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Cheetah Mobile starting to surge as investors discover the new IPO, but stock still underfollowed and undervalued.
    • Cheetah is the next Qihoo 360, it operates in the same business and its CEO and CTOs were key players at Qihoo.
    • Qihoo 360 shares quadrupled in the last two years. Cheetah exhibits similar revenue growth and other business metrics to Qihoo.
    • Cheetah is profitable, 90-100% revenue growth next two years, forward PE of 25, and a PEG ratio of just 0.5 -- a compelling opportunity.
    • Och-Ziff Capital Management's announcement after-close Monday of 5.2% stake in Cheetah provides new catalyst for further upside.
  • Rio Alto: Potential Double, Limited Downside
       • Apr. 10, 2014 RIOM 40 Comments

    Summary

    • Market has failed to account for excellent resource update in February.
    • This resource update gives RIOM the financial flexibility to build Phase II of the La Arena mine without diluting shareholders.
    • Phase II feasibility study results this summer offers catalyst for sudden repricing of stock higher.
    • The market currently values Phase II at nearly zero. As such, Phase II is a nearly free call option on 4 billion pounds of copper/4 million ounces of gold.
    • Existing operations are worth roughly $2/share, limiting downside even if Phase II doesn't work out.
  • Rio Alto Washes Out; Now A Compelling Bargain At 6x P/E
       • Apr. 24, 2013 RIOM 2 Comments
  • Down 83% In 6 Months: Jaguar Mining Is Finally A Buy
    Editors' Pick • May. 9, 2012 JAGGF 58 Comments
  • Republic's Shares Flying Too High On Frontier Sale
    Feb. 8, 2012 RJET 12 Comments
  • Le Gaga: Either The World's Most Efficient Farmers Or A Great Short
    Nov. 16, 2011 GAGA 48 Comments
  • Swisher Hygiene's Recent Rally May Quickly Drain Away
    Oct. 24, 2011 SWSH 22 Comments
  • Orsus Xelent: Don't Be Fooled By 'Momentum'
    Oct. 24, 2011 ORSX 3 Comments
  • Alleged Fraud At Chaoda; Is Closely-Connected Le Gaga Rotten Too?
    Oct. 11, 2011 GAGA, CMGHF, CHBT 2 Comments
  • Armour Residential A Short-Term Buy Following Ticker Symbol Confusion
    Oct. 5, 2011 ARR 8 Comments
  • Liquidity Services: Shares Vulnerable After Massive Rally
    Sep. 29, 2011 LQDT 4 Comments
  • 5 Stocks At 52-Week Lows That Will Keep Struggling
    Sep. 20, 2011 ZGNX, WWON, RST 6 Comments
  • Texas Instruments Loses Luster For Growth Investors
    Sep. 15, 2011 TXN 3 Comments