View as an RSS Feed
View Ian Bezek's Articles BY TICKER:
FXCM: This Equity Is Nearly Worthless
- FXCM shares have rallied to a valuation far beyond what is justified based on its prior earnings power.
- Its forward value will be harmed by more regulation and reputational damage.
- Shares should trade for less than $1/share.
Sell NovaGold: Market Vastly Overvaluing Donlin
- NovaGold's primary prospect, Donlin, is receiving a $2bn valuation from the market.
- This is inexplicable given comps to neighboring projects.
- Donlin also is valued at roughly 4x its Net Present Value, which is equally illogical.
- NovaGold has a spotty record of developing mining projects; this is particularly troublesome as environmental headwinds to Donlin mount.
- Recent 30% run-up in NovaGold shares offers perfect opportunity to sell.
Rosetta Stone's Terminal Decline Continues Despite Acquisitions And Accounting Changes
- I described in great detail in 2011 why Rosetta Stone was a compelling short.
- Since then, the company has gone on an acquisition binge and changed some accounting measures as part of its turnaround strategy.
- These developments have attracted value investors, shoring up Rosetta Stone's shares.
- The core business continues to melt away, and the new developments fail to change the company's downward trajectory.
- Shares remain a great short opportunity.
China Zenix: This Probably Won't End Well
- China Zenix Auto's stock looks stunningly cheap on the surface.
- The company's past actions cast doubt on the reported numbers.
- The company's recent dismissal of its auditor is another bad sign.
- Investors should stay away from this value trap.
MeetMe? I'd Rather Not
- MeetMe gets tons of promotional press.
- The company's results in no way justify the enthusiasm.
- This stock isn't going anywhere fast, I see no basis for bullish sentiment.
Don't Let The Bears Snow You: Why Peak Resorts Is Worth $13/Share
- My original long thesis is playing out: all 3 catalysts have been confirmed with hard data.
- Nonetheless, shares have fallen after a misleading negative take on the company.
- This article offers two parts. The first half addresses the negative chatter about Peak, and the second updates my original analysis.
- The company's strong start to this Winter ski season and early initiation of the dividend serve as tangible reminders of why this stock has explosive near-term upside.
- I reiterate my bullish outlook and raise my long-term target to $13/share.
They Say The End Is Near: It's 2004 All Over Again For Coca-Cola
- In 2004, investor sentiment toward Coca-Cola hit an extreme low capped by a brutal editorial against KO management in the New York Times.
- We have seen similar levels of negativity over the past month.
- Critics are focused solely on weakness in developed markets; strength in developing markets will more than make up for this.
- The long-term opportunity in KO today resembles that of 2004.
North Atlantic's Dividend Suspension Overshadows A Good Quarter
- North Atlantic turned in another good quarter with record EBITDA.
- This positive was greatly outweighed by the dividend suspension.
- I'm holding my shares. My buy call from last week was terribly wrong; however, nothing has changed with the long thesis to compel me to sell.
Peak Resorts: Neglected IPO Yields 6.5% With Three Catalysts For Imminent Upside
- Peak Resorts was the victim of a weak and neglected IPO.
- Thanks to this, we can buy Peak with a fat 6.5% yield.
- The 2014-15 ski season is shaping up great: Strong snows and low gas prices bode well.
- 30% near-term gains: Peak should trade to north of $11 this quarter, this stock won't yield more than 5% for long.
North Atlantic Drilling: Buying Where There's Blood
- North Atlantic shares collapsed Wednesday, culminating a brutal three-month selloff.
- There was no material negative news announced Wednesday.
- The Exxon development doesn't seem likely to have any impact on earnings.
- North Atlantic shares are a buy for those with a strong stomach.
You On Demand: What's Next Following The Post-Earnings Plunge
- You On Demand posted strong revenue growth, better than I had expected.
- Despite better revenues, the company posted another large loss as costs are still too high.
- The company cut full-year guidance and shares dove nearly 20% in after hours trading.
- I had anticipated weak earnings which confirmed my bear thesis.
- However, I covered my short. You On Demand still a good short, but no longer compelling.
You On Demand: Unproven Business Model, Scant Revenues, 70% Downside
- You On Demand's Video on Demand service attracts few subscribers and generates infinitesimal revenue.
- There's no proof the business model will work in China where opposition is strong to paying for media content.
- The Xiaomi announcement from last week has no bearing on You On Demand's business.
- You On Demand shares are profoundly overvalued.
Xunlei Rebounds On New CTO Hire
- Xunlei shares had fallen sharply over the past month.
- This is likely due to related company Kingsoft's profit warning and also a potential dispute with the MPAA.
- Shares rebounded following the company's hiring of new CTO Mr. Lei Chen.
- Xunlei is still one of my favorite longs heading into upcoming earnings.
Cheetah Mobile: Back On The Prowl
- I recommended taking profits in Cheetah Mobile at $29/share in August.
- The stock has plunged since then, falling 40%.
- Nothing fundamental has changed during the decline; this is a buying opportunity.
- A newly announced partnership with Kingsoft serves as the catalyst for a turnaround.
Buying ZIV: A Better Option Than Shorting VXX
- Both long ZIV and short VXX seek to benefit from an upcoming decline in volatility.
- VXX shorts suffer from backwardation at present.
- ZIV is not subject to this problem, and is currently the better option for long-term short volatility positions.
Gran Colombia's Great Cash Crunch
- Gran Colombia faces a sharp cash shortage.
- Current operations remain unprofitable.
- Company needs a big change in gold prices or production costs to weather the storm.
Xunlei: China's Nascent Amazon.com Is A Steal
- Alibaba is hyped as China's Amazon, but its business is totally different.
- Xunlei, by comparison, is building a network of properties that closely resembles Amazon.
- Xunlei's 53% owner, Lei Jun, founded Amazon China, and appears set on rebuilding it via Xunlei.
- We have a chance to invest alongside him below XNET's IPO price.
- With $7/share cash supporting the share price, Xunlei is a low-risk, high-reward opportunity.
Why Xunlei May Begin To Sprint Like A Cheetah
- Cheetah Mobile doubled since IPO, Xunlei is an extremely similar company whose stock hasn't yet popped.
- Cheetah and Xunlei share same backers including the Chinese Steve Jobs; smartphone billionaire Lei Jun.
- Xunlei will trade to $20/share should it follow Cheetah's footsteps.
- Xunlei should also trade above $20/share based on valuation with comparable Chinese internet companies.
- $7/share of cash; Xunlei's investors are protected from significant downside.
Take Profits In Cheetah Mobile And Buy Its Twin, Xunlei
- I recommended Cheetah Mobile (CMCM) in June at $21, it has rallied 40% since then.
- CMCM remains a compelling growth story, last quarter's earnings blew out estimates.
- That said, valuation may be stretched and CMCM has become a battleground stock with short sellers.
- I have taken profits on CMCM and reallocated much of my Chinese internet exposure to Xunlei (XNET).
- XNET is a similar story with same backers as CMCM that has not yet rallied, making this a fortuitous entry point.
Cheetah Sprints Higher As Investors Discover The Next Qihoo 360
- Cheetah Mobile starting to surge as investors discover the new IPO, but stock still underfollowed and undervalued.
- Cheetah is the next Qihoo 360, it operates in the same business and its CEO and CTOs were key players at Qihoo.
- Qihoo 360 shares quadrupled in the last two years. Cheetah exhibits similar revenue growth and other business metrics to Qihoo.
- Cheetah is profitable, 90-100% revenue growth next two years, forward PE of 25, and a PEG ratio of just 0.5 -- a compelling opportunity.
- Och-Ziff Capital Management's announcement after-close Monday of 5.2% stake in Cheetah provides new catalyst for further upside.
Rio Alto: Potential Double, Limited Downside
- Market has failed to account for excellent resource update in February.
- This resource update gives RIOM the financial flexibility to build Phase II of the La Arena mine without diluting shareholders.
- Phase II feasibility study results this summer offers catalyst for sudden repricing of stock higher.
- The market currently values Phase II at nearly zero. As such, Phase II is a nearly free call option on 4 billion pounds of copper/4 million ounces of gold.
- Existing operations are worth roughly $2/share, limiting downside even if Phase II doesn't work out.
- Rio Alto Washes Out; Now A Compelling Bargain At 6x P/E
- Down 83% In 6 Months: Jaguar Mining Is Finally A Buy
- Republic's Shares Flying Too High On Frontier Sale
- Le Gaga: Either The World's Most Efficient Farmers Or A Great Short
- Swisher Hygiene's Recent Rally May Quickly Drain Away
- Orsus Xelent: Don't Be Fooled By 'Momentum'
- Alleged Fraud At Chaoda; Is Closely-Connected Le Gaga Rotten Too?
- Armour Residential A Short-Term Buy Following Ticker Symbol Confusion
- Liquidity Services: Shares Vulnerable After Massive Rally
- 5 Stocks At 52-Week Lows That Will Keep Struggling
- Texas Instruments Loses Luster For Growth Investors