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Ian Bezek  

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  • Linn Energy: A Poorly Timed Secondary [View article]
    Shareholders will be lucky if the common equity survives this energy cycle. Dividend should be suspended and more equity sold to provide the company as great a chance of survival as possible.
    May 19, 2015. 04:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Chilean Peso Could Weaken [View article]
    I don't see the words "copper", "gold", or "silver" once in this article. Given that the metals are trading aggressively higher, and they power the Chilean economy, you'd think the author would mention them, at least in passing.

    In a, let's imagine, $18/silver, $1250 gold, $3/lb copper world, Chilean Peso goes higher. No ifs, ands, or buts.
    May 19, 2015. 01:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There A Dividend Bubble: Kinder Morgan Edition [View article]
    In regards to an analyst initiation? Without seeing their research or how they derived their price target, I have no thoughts. Thanks for the comment.
    May 18, 2015. 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income Corp.: Collecting Monthly Dividends [View article]
    I refer to "margin of safety" in its typical financial definition, that is, the difference between the value of a company's assets and its market value. With LXP and OHI, I'd argue, both trade at a reasonable discount to the value of their property portfolios, whereas O seems slightly overpriced.

    "Margin of safety" has less to do with past performance or dividend distribution ratios than it does with the (if there is one) gap between the value of a company's assets and its market valuation.

    --

    Also, in the case of OHI, I don't view what happened in 2000 as particularly relevant at this point. At some point, particularly after growing your asset base as much as they have, a statute of limitations kicks in for past offenses.
    May 17, 2015. 07:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There A Dividend Bubble: Kinder Morgan Edition [View article]
    That is the pivotal question, and unfortunately, it can be difficult for anyone who's not an energy industry insider to get a good handle on how to think about deprecation and read the cash flow statement in light of that.
    May 17, 2015. 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There A Dividend Bubble: Kinder Morgan Edition [View article]
    Thanks for reading and commenting. I quite liked how you expressed your ideas in the portfolio review and the three tiers of holdings is a good mentality for thinking about risk and position sizing. On an unrelated note I really enjoyed the factual 48/favored 44 article as well.
    May 17, 2015. 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income Corp.: Collecting Monthly Dividends [View article]
    The model appears to be changing or struggling to keep up that rate of growth though. Dividend has only from 18 cents a month in beginning of 2013 to 19 cents a month now. Alas, the 10% a year growth days appear behind us until cap rates rise again.
    May 16, 2015. 03:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividend Growth Will Slow Down [View article]
    It will become much more important to differentiate between DGI type stocks with strong exposure to emerging foreign markets where a rising middle class offers one last big opportunity to expand the overall market.

    Companies reliant on developed markets will largely be fighting for share of a stagnant pie.
    May 16, 2015. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income Corp.: Collecting Monthly Dividends [View article]
    Right, because short-term stock charts are 100% correct accurate representations of long-term business valuation.

    I stand corrected.
    May 16, 2015. 01:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income Corp.: Collecting Monthly Dividends [View article]
    Would rather buy a quarterly REIT with a larger margin of safety. LXP or OHI for example.

    My understanding is that monthly v. quarterly dividends doesn't make much difference in long-term compounding. That said, I own some monthly payers (AVAL, EMLC, TAHO) but not due to the fact that they pay monthly.
    May 15, 2015. 05:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There A Dividend Bubble: Kinder Morgan Edition [View article]
    I think institutional holder % is a pretty meaningless statistic. It was being used in this comment thread to suggest that KMI's big money holders know what they're doing. They may or may not be true. In the case of Enron, they didn't.
    May 15, 2015. 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Endeavour Silver: Conformists Need Not Apply [View article]
    Nice pop in silver and as such all related plays including Endeavour and Tahoe. Could have a ways to run with the recent trading range busted.
    May 15, 2015. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There A Dividend Bubble: Kinder Morgan Edition [View article]
    "At the height of Enron's popularity in late 2000 and early 2001, large institutional investors owned 60 percent of its stock."

    http://bit.ly/1FcXGtT

    KMI by 51% is owned by institution and mutual fund holders, though I'm not sure what percentage of that is index funds.

    fwiw
    May 15, 2015. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There A Dividend Bubble: Kinder Morgan Edition [View article]
    S&P isn't going to force you to liquidate it randomly, all at once, causing a massive unforeseen tax burden.
    May 14, 2015. 04:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There A Dividend Bubble: Kinder Morgan Edition [View article]
    $45bn of debt. The $100mn is a 2015 figure. Ask yourself what happens when their interest rate hedges mature and their long-term debt needs to be rolled over.

    Clearly a 2% move upward in the curve on $45bn of debt would be problematic. Even 1% would likely cause serious compression of cash flow.
    May 14, 2015. 09:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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