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Ian Bezek  

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  • Bancolombia: Buy This Fast-Growing Bank At 5-Year Lows [View article]
    Outstanding buy if it gets there, though I doubt it.
    Mar 27, 2015. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why NovaGold Can Deliver More Upside Going Forward [View article]
    Stock down 25% since this article
    Mar 26, 2015. 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When $100 Gets You A Sandwich And A Coke [View article]
    To be fair they tried the US way from 1990 until 2001 and Bush/IMF threw them under the bus when they needed assistance when the rest of LatAm was collapsing.
    Mar 26, 2015. 07:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Investing: It's Riskier Than You Probably Think [View article]
    Are you referring to my article or the stockblog?
    Mar 26, 2015. 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Investing: It's Riskier Than You Probably Think [View article]
    I'd argue in the accumulation phase, one would simply deploy new investment capital into other sectors or countries where valuations aren't excessive to dilute the impact of the overvalued positions. If you're in an IRA with no tax consequences, I can't blame somebody for selling something that's way overvalued like CL, but I wouldn't liquidate a whole portfolio based just on valuation. That seems like a baby with the bathwater issue.
    Mar 26, 2015. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When $100 Gets You A Sandwich And A Coke [View article]
    This is still true. You can get 12.7 pesos for a dollar today ($100/bill) on the money-changing street from a black market shop vs. 8.8 or so at a bank.
    Mar 26, 2015. 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Announcing Winners For Seeking Alpha's First-Ever Investment Pitch Contest [View article]
    Early Retiree: I believe you're making the same currency error you are saying others are making. CIB COP (peso) net income is up from 1,488/share in 2009 to a run rate over 2,000/share today. That's 30% growth during a stretch when their stock has done little in Colombia and has fallen in the US. Perhaps you were referring to US dollar denominated EPS growth per share?

    And the herd is dumping Colombia, not Bancolombia specifically. I tried to explain that in my article, the opportunity is that Colombia as a country is down 50%, and its best asset has been taken down in the crossfire.

    If you want to discuss more, let's take it over to the CIB thread, this isn't really the right fórum.
    Mar 26, 2015. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bancolombia: Buy This Fast-Growing Bank At 5-Year Lows [View article]
    I agree. The equity market there is profoundly illiquid. Most Colombians I talk to, even middle-upper class professionals such as professors and advertisting managers have no idea their country even has a stock exchange. It's dated but this quote from 2007 pretty much sums things up:

    "The Colombian stock exchange, called Bolsa de Valores, is merely 12 people sitting in front of trading screen in an office building in Bogotá’s financial district. The exchange closes at 1PM because all business that needs to be transacted for the day is typically done by then. With such a limited number of buyers and sellers in their emerging market, volatility is the norm. In 2005 the Bolsa was up 128% (second best in the world that year). It took a 45% dip last year when many emerging markets were hit – second worst loss in the world. It is down 5% in 2007. Bolsa-listed stocks can only be bought with pesos and there are no Colombian mutual funds available to foreign investors."

    In light of this illiquidity, which has waned a little but is still largely persistent, I suggest that Colombian equities offer a great portfolio diversifier, as they offer strong low correlation returns to the US equity market, and with a continuously reinvested dividend, investors will be able to acculumate a lot of shares when the stock market there periodically overreacts violently to the downside.

    In the case of AVAL and CIB, they both pay large dividends, so if there is a value/price disparity at least we get paid to wait. And in the other direction shares could become significantly overvalued in an illiquid push the other direction.

    Thanks for the comment and IMF link
    Mar 26, 2015. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sphere 3D: A Short So Fat, When I Yell 'Hey Kool-Aid!' It Comes Crashing Through The Wall [View article]
    Fantastic write-up. I had no idea about the Flavor-aid thing. Great work getting the e-mail: "highly in flux" lol.

    Thankful I'm not long your latest short idea!
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When $100 Gets You A Sandwich And A Coke [View article]
    Nice article. Right you are about the annoying facets of only having a $100 peso bill. I have to pay monthly rent with a stack of 51 bank notes. Absurd.

    Just to clarify, the $2 still is used everywhere. The 1 peso coin is used in any local shop (corner markets, cafes, convenience stores, etc), though MCDs and Starbucks here often don't have them for change.

    If you want a sub-1 coin, the big supermarkets like Coto and Disco still make change down to the 10 centavo coin (less than a US penny) so get your collectors' coins now...
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Seeking Alpha [View article]
    I'd imagine authors who put all their good work behind a paywall wouldn't get subscribers. There will still be plenty of actionable stuff on the free side.
    Mar 25, 2015. 03:31 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Seeking Alpha [View article]
    You pay with your time trying to find good content among the mass.
    Mar 25, 2015. 03:30 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Seeking Alpha [View article]
    It's pretty useless though. Their algorithm misses tons of picks and can't figure out whether authors are bearish or bullish half the time. The authors who score high there are likely doing so because they went to the hassle of getting their picks manually fixed by the humans on the site.
    Mar 25, 2015. 03:29 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energous: More Reasons To Be Dubious [View article]
    "Energerous aims to solve"

    And yet will fail to solve. I aim to be elected grand poobah of Turkmenistán, but my odds of success are low.

    Dreamers are buying this stock. Investors are staying clear.
    Mar 25, 2015. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Announcing Winners For Seeking Alpha's First-Ever Investment Pitch Contest [View article]
    Correct that inflation will reduce the real return.

    The thing that makes this situation unique is that we DO have visibility that Colombia should remain a hypergrowing economy for decades to come. Country is greatly underbanked and GDP/cap has tripled in the past decade. People that had $3k/year income and now have $10k are going to start getting mortgages, credit cards, opening checking accounts.

    Now if something happens politically between now and then, we can change course and reconsider the long-term outlook, but as long as 4-5% GDP growth and much faster than that banking sector growth continues, CIB has a very easy path to sustained large EPS growth and dividend hikes. Colombia is the 2nd most market-orientated economy in the región after Chile, and if they keep going down the Chilean path, anyone along for the ride will make out well indeed.
    Mar 25, 2015. 08:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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