Ian Bezek

Long/short equity
Ian Bezek
Long/short equity
Contributor since: 2008
The irony would be almost too much to bear if Varan, of all people, ends up publishing the best list of DGI stocks.
The XCO bonds collapsed today. If you're still long, sell the equity while it still is worth something. This stock is going to zero-ville very soon now.
Over the past 150 years, we've discovered various new methods for extracting both oil and gold, and yet they fundamentally tend to trade together. I doubt this current divergence will last all that long.
As for Twitter, I'd never go long it in isolation. I get the argument for going long it on a relative valuation basis I guess. Agree that a buyout is the best hope for longs.
Good question, I'll address it tomorrow.
I don't think Bloomberg would have wide appeal. Might derail Trump's efforts, but Bloomberg wouldn't come close to winning.
That may be true from a total return standpoint. As investments, they're quite different though.
AAPL is optically very cheap but relies on one product for the majority of its sales. If that mainstay product goes well, you make a great return from current levels. If it goes poorly, you get a minimal return.
TXN on the other hand is priced dead in line with the S&P 500 as a whole. It has no revenue concentration, and is unlikely to see much volatility in its forward sales trajectory, apart from economic cyclicality. You're unlikely to get a whole lot of upside (market should never expand its PE past the low 20s), but you get a good yield and slow but reasonable growth.
AAPL is a flashy consumer facing company that very much embodies a typical tech company despite its more value-orientated shareholder base. TXN on the other hand is almost a tech utility company - it sells key parts for the AAPL's of the world, taking little brand or consumer risk. TXN wants to sell you all sorts of monitoring chips for cars - for example - they don't care who you buy from in particular. Whether TSLA wins or loses is hardly relevant, they'll get a cut from any self-driving sort of vehicle.
See this video for example: http://bit.ly/1os60C4
"Ian, another great summary of life in this world in your comments today! Sorry you live in Mexico and cannot speak freely like we can in the ole USA! The USA is about to turn the corner with this very promising upcoming election."
This made my day. Thanks.
That's the hopeful view. Unlike Trump and the others, Sanders has been very consistent and very far to the left. I doubt he'd water down his own agenda, though surely Congress and his advisors would try to were he elected.
I'm still positioned bullishly for the short-term. But bulls need to put some points on the board soon. After such a beatdown, a flat day yesterday and +10 S&P points today isn't enough to really move the needle.
As for 2) I'd venture that Musk is a more credible manager than what SUNE had. With these sorts of opaque finance-heavy business models, you need the market to trust management.
3) It's not the expected reaction for sure.
Let's dispel with the fiction that Ian Bezek doesn't know what he's doing. He knows exactly what he's doing.
I was tempted to short more VXX, but held off. May end up regretting it.
Thanks for the comment. I don't mind saying I'm wrong, if my call ends up bad. I'm happy to make a prediction where I have a 70% chance of being right, and having it go wrong occasionally. A good investor is right more times than they're wrong. Anyone aiming for a 100% win rate isn't being realistic.
As for TXN, the upside isn't huge, but you get a great business and a good dividend yield at a fair price. As far as tech companies go, it's one of the better options.
Thanks for comment Blackmolly. Where did I make a mistake?
Agreed, for institutions that are too big and complex to analyze properly, price action is often one the best indicators that we have.
Good suggestion DWD, I'm taking it into account.
I wouldn't hold TAHO stock until the political situation in Guatemala becomes more clear. Unknown comedian just got elected president, still hard to tell if any anti-mining developments will occur during his administration.
Indeed the market has been resilient in the face of a truly amazing amount of pessimism. I'd love to be bearish - the global economic outlook outside of the US is truly horrific - but not when everyone else already is. We're well past 2011 in terms of fear now despite the market not having sold down nearly as far.
Agreed on TXN, the 14-day slow stochastic indicator shows that shares are insufficiently oversold to justify buying at this point. However, upon viewing a fractal MQL4 analysis of the stock's recent adjusted RSI range, you might think differently.
When the MACD turned down and the 200 day moving average crossed the volume weighted 142 day moving average, that was clearly the time to sell. I can't believe I missed it!
Agreed, Protagonist.
No concentrated source of revenue or dependence on a small range of products.
Sometimes sideways as well...
Weaker dollar should be good for US stocks, especially multinationals. Euro at 1.13 instead of 1.08 is a nice tailwind for profits.
That's an interesting comment. Food for thought. Thanks.
Wasn't a forward PE, was trailing PE with a one-time event stripped out. Taking a loss on selling an asset is clearly not a continuing event and thus shouldn't be considered as part of TTM PE.
Nicely done, Jay.
PE ratio is now 15 again, since that one-off quarter has rolled off. Please be more careful when using PE ratios to argue valuation in the future.
Thanks.
Anyone else notice SAM today? :)
LINE and LNCO equities are worthless in my view. Way too much debt to ever pay.
QCOM, I'm looking at it right now actually.
Read the link I posted above. What they said Friday was not entirely transparent.
http://bit.ly/1W79MeV
If you want to cover mining stocks, it's an indispensable read.