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Ian Bezek  

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  • EWZ - September Review: Brazil In A Deep Crisis, Share Market Reacts Accordingly [View article]
    I think a lot of people would buy the moment she is out. I view it as a risk to my short Brazil trade actually. She's such an atrocious leader.
    Oct 6, 2015. 04:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mexico: The Next Venezuela ? [View article]
    US aided several of the coups against Chavez including the 2002 one that briefly removed Chavez from power.
    Oct 6, 2015. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mexico: The Next Venezuela ? [View article]
    Lauro: Compare the Mexican Peso to the Chilean Peso (by far LatAm's most stable economy) or even to the Euro or Yen over the past few years. Mexican Peso is doing just fine. Strong dollar is the problem.

    Inflation is down to 2.6% now and is at 50-year lows. This is precisely the wrong moment to be calling for a currency collapse. If anything, Mexico will get sucked into the North American deflationary vortex.
    Oct 6, 2015. 02:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Third Quarter 2015 Portfolio Review - Doing Some Buying [View article]
    Doesn't less beta mean your portfolio should be down less than the market, all else equal? Lower beta than market combined with greater losses than market is a bad equation.

    Varan: I'd imagine most DGIs are underperforming this year due to the heavy exposure to energy and REITs. An excellent reminder to all that "defensive" sectors stop being defensive if investors wildly overpay for even blue chip stocks.
    Oct 6, 2015. 01:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mexico: The Next Venezuela ? [View article]
    Indeed, that's exactly it. There's a place for a strongly bearish take on Mexico from an insider to the country. Comparing it to Venezuela takes it into the land of hyperbole.
    Oct 6, 2015. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grupo Aval: A Deeper Dive On This Fast-Growing Monthly Pay 5% Yielder [View article]
    It was 4.85 April to September

    Complete dividend history here:
    Oct 6, 2015. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bezek's Daily Briefing: Global Euphoria [View article]
    They might, though the credit markets are now betting against it.

    And yes, volatility has been excessive given the (in the grand scheme of things) relatively minor economic changes. That's why shorting VIX remains such a powerful strategy, as long as people keep overbidding and overpaying for volatility.
    Oct 6, 2015. 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grupo Aval: A Deeper Dive On This Fast-Growing Monthly Pay 5% Yielder [View article]
    That's a raise from the previous distribution in local currency. An AVAL ADR is 20 common shares. So you're getting (4.9x20) 98 pesos (3.4 US cents) per share dividend per month based on current FX rate.
    Oct 6, 2015. 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mexico: The Next Venezuela ? [View article]
    Thanks for your long and interesting response. To your points:

    *Venezuela isn't a fair comparison to Mexico. Venezuela isn't even a fair comparison to neighboring Colombia, and Colombia has an economy more petro-based and otherwise more similar to VZ than Mexico. VZ is in one bloc of countries with Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador and others that reject the US, free markets, and neoliberalism. Mexico is on the other side with the Chile, Peru, and Colombia type economies.

    *I know the Peso has fallen that far in the past, but the government is totally different now. The Peruvian Sol and Colombian Peso both have collapsed frequently, but like Mexico, they don't collapse 100% or more anymore -- haven't since, at the latest, 2000.

    *Peso is down 30% against the dollar, but so are lots of currencies. Canadian dollar went from parity to $1.35. Colombian Peso is down more than Mexico. Even the continent's best economy, Chile, has its Peso down more than 20%. The problem is the strong dollar, nothing specific to Mexico. Chile and Peru both are seeing their currencies plunge, but they aren't oil producers. Even Brazil is down because of iron prices, not oil. Brazil is a net importer of oil!

    Euro / Mexican Peso hit 19 in 2011 and is at 19 now. That's 0% depreciation against the world's second-most important currency over the past 4 years. Problem is the dollar, not the Peso.

    *I agree with you on the great problem of wealth distribution (and corruption) in Mexico and other LatAm countries I've lived (such as Colombia and Guatemala -- look at what happened with OPM there!)

    *I agree that the prices of things the very highest levels of society would buy are generally priced in dollars. I'm not a member of the elite and not aiming to be one. For ordinary "Juans" in society, inflation is no more a problem now than usual. Frequently currency collapses are caused by government overspending and money printing, neither of which Mexico is doing. How can the currency collapse if its debt and money supply are both stable?

    I've traveled frequently in Mexico over the past few years and now live here the prices of stuff I buy -- everything from airfare to groceries, cokes, haircuts, taxis, beach cabin rentals, whatever, it's all as stable in Peso terms as those goods are in the US in dollar terms.

    I think the most apt comparison to Mexico is Colombia -- rather than VZ or Brazil. That said, the market is pricing Colombia worse in 2015 than Mexico even though Colombia has the stronger economy. If Mexico goes down, most of the continent will have collapsed first.
    Oct 5, 2015. 08:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bezek's Daily Briefing: Market Pleads For No Rate Hike [View article]
    Interesting times indeed.

    TROW was about a dollar away from reaching where I wanted to buy it. Still near the top of my watchlist in case this rally fizzles.
    Oct 5, 2015. 06:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Avianca Holdings: Pay For The Loyalty Program, Get The Airline For Free [View article]
    Good luck, we'll see how it turns out for us.
    Oct 5, 2015. 04:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Your Need-To-Know Guide To Latin America's Top 50 Brands [View article]
    Yes they did. It will be interesting to see how the stock trades in October.
    Oct 5, 2015. 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EWZ - September Review: Brazil In A Deep Crisis, Share Market Reacts Accordingly [View article]
    Happy for the bounce Friday and today, reshorted the country this afternoon. Agree with you we haven't found a bottom yet.
    Oct 5, 2015. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Avianca Holdings: Pay For The Loyalty Program, Get The Airline For Free [View article]
    They're paying in USD and Colombia doesn't charge a withholding tax on dividends. I get my regular CIB and AVAL dividends without any tax and looking forward to getting my first AVH divi here shortly.
    Oct 5, 2015. 04:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mexico: The Next Venezuela ? [View article]
    I'm sorry, but this article is completely absurd. Venezuela? Similarities to when Peso fell 1,400%?

    The author neglected to mention that inflation is at record low levels here in Mexico, oil is only 6% of GDP, that the government is as about as neoliberal and pro-free markets as you could hope for in Latin America...

    GDP growing at 2-3% and inflation is basically 0. How often do those figures associate with an epic currency collapse? Cost of living is already silly cheap here, I live like a king at a 17/1 exchange rate. If the author gets his 20 or 25 to 1 exchange rate, Mexico would be the cheapest country in the Western Hemisphere on a PPP basis. At his hysterical $250 Peso/dollar range, I'd buy a nice house here in Queretaro for about $3,000 US and never pay rent again in my life. If only I could be so lucky.

    Mexico can't -- and won't -- fail in a post NAFTA world where it is integrated with the US unless the government turns hard to the left. There's no sign of this happening.

    Comparisons to Brazil or Venezuela are simply absurd without discussing the vast political differences between the nations. It'd be like saying West Germany is on the brink of collapse because the Soviet economy started to collapse in the 80s. They're both European economies, right?

    His 30% Mexican Peso down being a harbinger... I guess Germany is about to collapse as well, iirc Euro is 30% down against the Dollar lately.
    Oct 5, 2015. 04:09 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment