Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Ian Bezek  

View Ian Bezek's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Share Accumulation Averaging Down In A Collapsed Sector: Play-By-Play [View article]
    Wonder how much paper losses followers of this strategy face at the moment. And are they buying here, or have they run out of firepower already?
    Mar 16, 2015. 03:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Discounts Petrobras 60%, New Developments Signal Time To Buy [View article]
    If you believe book value in sectors where commodity prices have fallen 50% recently, boy do I have some mining shares to sell you. Screaming value on an (unaudited) book value basis, for sure! PM me privately if you want more details.
    Mar 16, 2015. 03:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Barrick Gold A Candidate For Bankruptcy? [View article]
    Oh good heavens. This isn't comparable to ANV in the slightest (other recent bankruptcies include ECU Silver and Colossus fyi).

    Barrick produces positive cash flow, unlike ANV. Barrick has a lot of debt, sure, but it's long-term, and they can idle the growth CAPEX Budget if necessary to reduce debtload.

    " For gold mining diehards, there are many investment choices that are better than ABX."

    Such as?
    Mar 16, 2015. 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Resource Partners - A Distribution Cut Plus Possible Liquidity Concerns [View article]
    You're nuts if you own the equity instead of the bonds here. Just saying...
    Mar 16, 2015. 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bancolombia: Buy This Fast-Growing Bank At 5-Year Lows [View article]
    I'm buying with dollars, not Pesos. If I were investing in Colombia, and my income and expenses were in Pesos, thing might look different.

    Historically the Peso trades around 2000-2200 long-term average. I agree this average should rise gradually over time as Colombia has modestly higher inflation than the US.

    However, 2650 Peso, where we sit today, is way outside the historical average, and is likely an overreaction to global oil prices. And since much of CIB's business is in Panama and El Salvador, where they earn profits in U$D, much of their earnings power is sheltered from the Peso move anyways. The U$D earned profits can be used to grow Peso-income and Peso-dividend more rapidly.

    Thanks for your comments, by the way, a comments section full of just people agreeing with the author does little to help flesh out the idea's merits and potential flaws.
    Mar 16, 2015. 12:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bancolombia: Buy This Fast-Growing Bank At 5-Year Lows [View article]
    The Colombians in Colombia don't like the ones that left for Miami either. The feeling is mutual. Same with the expat Cuban or Mexican communities to give two other examples. Anyone that goes to the hassle of emigrating from a country is more prone to harbor ill feelings toward it. As I do toward the US, my view of that country is not at all representitive of a normal American toward his country...

    I wouldn't say Colombia would become the Singapore of LatAm... there's drastic cultural, political and structural economic differences between the countries. Singapore isn't even a democracy in the normal sense, and its political system is repressive to liberty whereas Colombia is quite open to civil liberties. Is Colombia the Chile circa 1990 or Slovakia circa 1993 economy of LatAm? It certainly is a leading contender.
    Mar 16, 2015. 10:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bancolombia: Buy This Fast-Growing Bank At 5-Year Lows [View article]
    The currency hasn't consistently devalued. Look at the 10-year chart posted above, it's been on the whole flat over the whole stretch. It's currently at a low point, sure, but there's no underlying trend. A significant chunk of the higher inflation in Colombia (we're talking 4% there vs. 2% in the US -- not some large difference) gets absorbed by generally rising price levels in the economy. As developing countries get closer to developed, their price levels, particularly for things such as real estate go from very low to near-first world. Look at Brazil or Hong Kong for example.

    If, say, Guatemala went from its current state to being as developed as say the Bahamas... its inflation rate would consistently be higher than that of the US without necessarily forcing its currency lower.

    Also, keep in mind Bancolombia has substantial business in Panama and El Salvador -- both of which countries use the dollar. So significant insulation from Peso on that front. Lower Peso simply means they'll raise the dividend faster. Net-net works out fine for the foreign holders.
    Mar 16, 2015. 10:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bancolombia: Buy This Fast-Growing Bank At 5-Year Lows [View article]
    Perhaps invest in Colombia now -- particularly with the exchange rate low -- and if Colombia develops as we anticĂ­pate, your investments will pay for many cervezas later on.
    Mar 16, 2015. 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Garden Variety Dividend Stocks [View article]
    Fantastic comment DD.

    And nice article Adam.
    Mar 15, 2015. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bancolombia: Buy This Fast-Growing Bank At 5-Year Lows [View article]
    I also recently bought Aval. Agree they have a better dividend -- near 5% and paid monthly. That compounds, fast. I think there is more risk in their business structure, so it's a trade-off for sure. I'll probably write an article on Aval as well.

    The generally-viewed as gold standard list from S&P quotes Colombia at 0%. Hasn't been updated since 2013 though so take with a grain of salt. http://bit.ly/1GHP6lQ

    EY on the matter: http://bit.ly/1GHP6lT

    "Dividends paid to nonresidents are not subject to tax if the dividends are paid out of profits that were taxed at the corporate level (temporal differences can affect this calculation). If the dividends were not taxed at the corporate level, dividends paid to nonresidents are subject to withholding tax at the regular corporate income tax rate of 33%. "
    Mar 15, 2015. 11:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bancolombia: Buy This Fast-Growing Bank At 5-Year Lows [View article]
    Yes, they were selling Peso/buying dollars last couple years when the peso was in the 1800-2000 range. Note that your article was from Feb. 2014. At that point the Peso was overvalued on a PPP or big mac index basis.

    The program has been suspended now and those acquired dollars will come in handy should they want to stabilize the Peso at this new 30% lower level.
    Mar 15, 2015. 11:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bancolombia: Buy This Fast-Growing Bank At 5-Year Lows [View article]
    Well you've certainly made an interesting comment.

    As someone who lives in Argentina now: Why are you long here?! You've got more balls than I do, that's for sure!

    I agree NIM will fall over time. It's falling from a high enough level that profits will be generous for a long period though. Colombia is so under-penetrated in terms of financial services (under 10% checking accounts and mortgages that the growth trajectory is still long in my view).

    Can't they get more capital from Panama? I figured that was one of their big reasons for buying into there. Panama's banking system is abnormally large and reputable compared to the size of the country since it is a favorite ground for illicit money.

    I don't think the Peso needs so much defense as it held up pretty well in 2008 when things were much worse, and the country doesn't have a debt problem or a GDP problem. I just don't see anything that screams existential crisis.

    Agreed FDI was already flowing in, but that was at 1900 Peso/USD. Surely at 2700 Peso/USD, foreigners can find other industries to invest in that are now rentable, be it gold, flowers, coffee, textiles, something...
    Mar 15, 2015. 01:29 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bancolombia: Buy This Fast-Growing Bank At 5-Year Lows [View article]
    Perhaps the bank was overpriced in 2013. Its valuation has come in significantly since then. At its current ratios (12x trailing, 9x forward PE), and small premium to book, any potential past overvaluation has seemingly been priced out of the stock.

    In regards to lumpy 2013 earnings, perhaps that year's Panama acquisition would be at issue in causing a one-time earnings distortion?
    Mar 14, 2015. 11:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bancolombia: Buy This Fast-Growing Bank At 5-Year Lows [View article]
    I can't claim any expertise with Basel III implementation. Does this help? http://bit.ly/18qAiwM

    Share count has been up since because they made the Panamanian banking acquisition. Outside of that, I'm not aware of anything remarkable on that front.
    Mar 14, 2015. 11:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Is On The Sell Clock [View article]
    As far as global fast food goes, MCD has no equal. I'd argue Pepsi is a stronger competitor to Coke outside the US than anything MCD faces.

    Subway and KFC to some degree... but as a global brand, MCD still owns it internationally.

    The MCD is dead, look at Chipotle crowd totally miss how strong MCD is outside the US and that the strong US brands like Chipotle, Panera and Steak Shake are total zeroes outside of the US.
    Mar 14, 2015. 10:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,514 Comments
1,450 Likes