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Ian Bezek  

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  • The Real Danger Of Leveraged ETFs And ETNs [View article]
    Bertrand: volatility is more important than the underlying instrument. Gold miners (GDX, DUST, NUGT, JDST, JNUG) have been in a hardcore bear market for years. What, 80% down now off the highs. Yet there's been so much volatility, they're up 5% one day, down 5% the next, that even the stuff that should benefit (DUST, JDST) have hardly made a dime, meanwhile the other side 3x ETFS are down 99%.
    Sep 1, 2015. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Danger Of Leveraged ETFs And ETNs [View article]
    I don't systematically rebalance. I run very very small positions (very!) and add (even smaller) blocks when something runs up 50-100% off its recent low. And it only works, like your article showed, for higher vol stuff. JDST/JNUG, great. FAS/FAZ not so much, not enough vol to make it worth the hassle. Real chance of one end of the pair going to the moon.

    Same with perpetually shorting UVXY. It's great alpha, but you have to be such a small amount of it cause it can go up 5-10x at any given time. Still, if you run a constant 1% short position against it, you tend to make steady albeit marginal alpha.
    Sep 1, 2015. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Premarket Biotech Digest: CLL Treatment, Gilead CEO Sells, Acelity IPO [View article]
    "Martin sold 133,213 shares at $105.17. The total value of the transaction was around $14 million. However, this should not be seen as a negative. Insiders can sell for any number of reasons.

    What investors should focus on is Gilead's strong fundamentals. "

    Lol. Gilead was at $122 earlier this year when astute folks started saying this stock was overvalued. Now we're at $105 and the captain's selling an 8-figure chunk of stock and inflating a lifeboat, but fundamentals are still strong they say. On the plus side, the CEO believes so little in the company that he unloads tens of millions of bucks of stock every month.

    Quick, get me into that -- I want to buy up all that stock the CEO is furiously cutting loose. Insiders have figured out the Hep C gravy train is winding down. Have you?
    Sep 1, 2015. 12:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profit From The Biotech Craze: Long Gilead Sciences And Short Taro [View article]
    Since this article, TARO -6%, GILD -14%.

    Going against popular consensus wins again.
    Sep 1, 2015. 12:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Are Future Dividend Champions, My Friends [View article]
    On the plus side, AAPL has already dropped a lot of peak. I won't bother writing a negative article on it if shares don't go back up. I quite liked nailing the tops with my bearish KMI and GILD articles. But I'll stay off AAPL's case if it doesn't go back up over 130.
    Sep 1, 2015. 12:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Are Future Dividend Champions, My Friends [View article]
    Happy to. I know it doesn't make me popular, but I find one product tech companies that are "seemingly cheap" to be irresistible short targets... or at mínimum things to vociferously avoid. GILD, AAPL... probably my two least favorite stocks in the DGI universe.

    Heck, I'd rather buy Colgate at 38x earnings or whatever it's at now, because that's criminally overpriced but at least we'll still be using toothpaste 20 years from now. Hep C, no? It will be totally cured. And smartphones will be as popular as 8-track tape players in 2035.

    TXN, with its hundreds of products and thousands of patents across dozens of product categories will still be rolling strong though.
    Sep 1, 2015. 12:08 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Danger Of Leveraged ETFs And ETNs [View article]
    I can, and do. Short both JDST and JNUG, DUST and NUGT, UWTI and DWTI, YINN/YANG, etc.
    Sep 1, 2015. 12:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Are Future Dividend Champions, My Friends [View article]
    and when earnings drop 50% after Hep C is cured. What's the plan for dividend increases then?
    Aug 31, 2015. 11:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Are Future Dividend Champions, My Friends [View article]
    I agree TXN has inconsistent earnings, to the extent that it is a cyclical because it is tied to industries such as automotive that go up and down. It has a fat moat though, as far as a tech company goes, you could hardly ask for more.

    AAPL will enjoy some Nokia or BlackBerry type moment when its phones are no longer cool with the teens. And then earnings will go straight down, unlike TXN's volatile earnings pattern, AAPL will follow a solid line, straight downward.

    Hipster trends always end sooner or later, once everyone likes something, it isn't cool anymore, and then you can't charge 40% more than the generics anymore.

    The iWatch was a total bomb. iPad is fading. iPod is long over the hill. As soon as the iPhone gets assimiliated into some other tech device or plowed over by some Xiaomi or Samsung competitor, what's left?

    You're paying $665bn Enterprise value for a cell phone design that China copies without paying even a licensing fee. How much are BlackBerry, Motorola, and Nokia combined worth nowadays?
    Aug 31, 2015. 11:33 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Danger Of Leveraged ETFs And ETNs [View article]
    Nice article. I agree fully that people oversize positions due to not thinking about the ramifications of what 3x leverage actually means.

    Slippage/decay is a real thing ... look at the long term returns of JDST/JNUG in comparison with GDXJ if you want a sparkling example ... but it is also an easy fall guy for people wanting to divert the blame for an error that emerged elsewhere in the decision-making process.
    Aug 31, 2015. 07:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Are Future Dividend Champions, My Friends [View article]
    I'd bet a lot of money on TXN, rather than AAPL becoming a dividend champion. TXN has a wide moat, whereas AAPL is a one-trick pony (sorry) whose primary product won't exist in anything like its current form 10 years from now. Will Apple innovate into something new? Who knows? Based on Cook's record so far, I wouldn't count on it.

    I think TXN is up to, what, 13 years of consecutive raises now?

    Nice idea for an article, thanks for writing it up.
    Aug 31, 2015. 05:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On Babies And Bathwater [View article]
    I remember two of these vividly. One was ARR (a REIT) dropping 15% because American Airlines (AMR) and American Airlines Exchange-traded bond (AAR) both plunged 40-50% on bankruptcy rumors. http://tinyurl.com/pzp...

    And Tanzanian Royalty (then TRE) diving when Sino-Forest (TRE in Toronto) was exposed as a fraud.
    Aug 28, 2015. 02:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bancolombia S.A.: An Irrational Drop Will Be Followed By A Rational Recovery [View article]
    Haha.

    In all seriousness, I like Avianca, and in fact wrote a top idea long pitch for it at Seeking Alpha.
    Aug 28, 2015. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bancolombia S.A.: An Irrational Drop Will Be Followed By A Rational Recovery [View article]
    Lived in Medellín, and my girlfriend is from near Cartagena. My research and contacts say the big three (Bancolombia, Bogota, and Davienda) are roughly on the same level in terms of service. Yeah, there may be some foreign banks that have more modern systems or whatnot, but they don't have meaningful market share.

    Sure, the market has been a bit aggressive -- been through Bucaramanga? They're throwing up apartment towers left and right for no apparent reason. But in general the market is still reasonable. Particularly with the crash in the Peso, high end prices are still cheap compared to other peers except perhaps in Cartagena.
    Aug 27, 2015. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Linn Energy The Right Oil Play? [View article]
    "•Is this the right oil play for those who think oil prices will recover next year?"

    No, it isn't. Easy question.
    Aug 26, 2015. 07:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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