Comments on Ian Cooper's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/ian-cooper/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/103814-the-economy-s-worst-is-still-ahead-of-us?source=feed#comment-298910 298910 Wed, 05 Nov 2008 16:14:18 -0500
We've had the first financial tsunami.... how many more.... and how big..???

....most people aren't even aware of what's about to occur....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103814-the-economy-s-worst-is-still-ahead-of-us?source=feed#comment-298444 298444 Wed, 05 Nov 2008 01:14:22 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103814-the-economy-s-worst-is-still-ahead-of-us?source=feed#comment-298397 298397 Tue, 04 Nov 2008 21:51:48 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103814-the-economy-s-worst-is-still-ahead-of-us?source=feed#comment-298211 298211 Tue, 04 Nov 2008 14:37:37 -0500
If what you and Roubini say is true, and that hundreds of hedge funds will go belly up and the Option ARM loans result in a second financial crisis, those optimists are in for a rude awakening. On that note, I wish you had gone into greater detail about why the hedge funds are going to fail or when the Option ARM loans are going to begin resetting. The prediction that the hedge funds will go belly up loses some of its credence when you do not back it with any reasoning, only repercussions. You explained the Option ARM loans well, but by not including an idea of when to expect that crisis to begin, all you did is raise my blood pressure. However, those two do not take away from the fact that this was an eye opening piece about where the market has the potential to go. I am hoping none of your predictions come true, but look forward to continuing reading your blog in the future.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103814-the-economy-s-worst-is-still-ahead-of-us?source=feed#comment-298085 298085 Tue, 04 Nov 2008 11:43:09 -0500
1) Commercial real estate
2) Auto loans
3) Credit card debt

Each of these will undergo the same problems that residential real-estate is experiencing now. Expect many more Billion dollar writedowns to follow.

"It ain't over till it's over" - Yogi Berra
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103814-the-economy-s-worst-is-still-ahead-of-us?source=feed#comment-297951 297951 Tue, 04 Nov 2008 09:31:17 -0500 The Alt-A mortgages have to be so far underwater that they are submarines, as most mortgages which do not carry over interest are well below sale value.
From the figures you give, on a $600k house with interest you might owe $750k for an asset with $450k of value.
That takes down the mortgagee, the bank and the derivative market, together with the bail out plan scam.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103814-the-economy-s-worst-is-still-ahead-of-us?source=feed#comment-297899 297899 Tue, 04 Nov 2008 08:57:09 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103814-the-economy-s-worst-is-still-ahead-of-us?source=feed#comment-297826 297826 Tue, 04 Nov 2008 06:20:24 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90707-there-s-still-time-to-buy-warrior-energy?source=feed#comment-229523 229523 Wed, 13 Aug 2008 12:45:54 -0400 Stay away .... and language please!!!
Btw Today's price is $4.25 volume 0
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90707-there-s-still-time-to-buy-warrior-energy?source=feed#comment-229209 229209 Wed, 13 Aug 2008 07:44:21 -0400 If one believes Oil/Gas to go up,buy futures on those if you understand how margin is calculated and what risk is acceptable to you,or buy an established mid cap/big cap stock that trades on Nasdaq,NYSE,AMEX and have are history,long term institutional shareholders,proven oil/gas reserves,not some fantastic story the fat guy is selling on SA.
And such stock must have a profit,because if Oil/Gas firm is losing money then it is junk like Warrior (whatever they call it,assholes) or it may be established big firm too that have same stress like very big debt,too much hedging (Sem Group LP latest fiasco) or other liabilities.
Such cases may be a good investment,like Sem Group LP, but it is not suitable for individual investor as big guys can buy whole firm,all bonds,etc.,etc., and investor will be left with nothing.
I warn you again,stay away from Warrior junk fat guy is advising.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/59538-expected-led-industry-growth-a-boon-for-cree?source=feed#comment-227454 227454 Mon, 11 Aug 2008 01:00:47 -0400 Due to increasing demand of LED products specially LED display, many private AD business have started renting out their LED displays.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/59538-expected-led-industry-growth-a-boon-for-cree?source=feed#comment-227444 227444 Mon, 11 Aug 2008 00:38:07 -0400 ledindustry.blogspot.c... ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84989-why-american-express-should-be-ignored?source=feed#comment-216689 216689 Mon, 28 Jul 2008 14:08:07 -0400
I've been bullish on V from day one and even developed a blog around it:

www.visawinners.com

Come check it out.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86238-credit-card-breakdown-amex-disappoints-as-predicted?source=feed#comment-216687 216687 Mon, 28 Jul 2008 14:06:28 -0400
Yes Axp ind DFS are different animals. Unfortunate for the masses this is not as well known as it should be. Earnings this Wed (V) and Th (MA) will further delineate the differences.

We will soon be advertising on Seeking Alpha for our family of blogs and new site/forum. In the meantime - one of our blogs is devoted to V:

www.visawinners.com]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86238-credit-card-breakdown-amex-disappoints-as-predicted?source=feed#comment-215907 215907 Sun, 27 Jul 2008 16:42:43 -0400 www.bullishbankers.com.../]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86238-credit-card-breakdown-amex-disappoints-as-predicted?source=feed#comment-215214 215214 Sat, 26 Jul 2008 16:11:16 -0400
I am worried about what they will say on a going-forward basis. Just a couple of months back MA management came out and took the highest analysts eps number and called it low and increased guidance! The stock shot to 300+ and the shorties came out driving it to current levels. The shorties don't believe that MA growth can be sustained and that the macroeconomic environment will eventually start affecting them.

As pointed out in above posts there is a fundamental lack of understanding of the dynamism of developing countries where the populations largely operate using cash and the massive switch that is happening to MA and Visa issued plastic. So even with a cloudy macroeconomic situation one would argue that more and more cards are being issues in these developing countries and more and more transactions are moving to plastic from cash.

Comments welcome!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86238-credit-card-breakdown-amex-disappoints-as-predicted?source=feed#comment-214405 214405 Fri, 25 Jul 2008 11:35:23 -0400 usdoj.gov/dea/pubs/pre...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86238-credit-card-breakdown-amex-disappoints-as-predicted?source=feed#comment-214402 214402 Fri, 25 Jul 2008 11:31:46 -0400 usdoj.gov/dea/pubs/pre...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86238-credit-card-breakdown-amex-disappoints-as-predicted?source=feed#comment-214399 214399 Fri, 25 Jul 2008 11:30:53 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86238-credit-card-breakdown-amex-disappoints-as-predicted?source=feed#comment-213887 213887 Thu, 24 Jul 2008 21:05:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/86238-credit-card-breakdown-amex-disappoints-as-predicted?source=feed#comment-213747 213747 Thu, 24 Jul 2008 16:53:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/86238-credit-card-breakdown-amex-disappoints-as-predicted?source=feed#comment-213746 213746 Thu, 24 Jul 2008 16:50:31 -0400
Bank of America would love to create their own brand of card, however, they currently do not have the capital to develop their own payment platform.

The barriers to entering this business are hugh and the banks shot themselves in the foot by allowing this oligopoly to go on for so long.

You should already know that the banks sold the majority of their Visa Shares after the IPO. Why do yout think their recovery was so overstated in 04/2008 (They made millions from the IPO).

V & MA are great stocks but there are clearly risks involved. At this juncture the risks are outweighed by the great potential in emerging markets as stated above by Adesai. The growth in emerging markets will offset any roadblock in the U.S. over the next 3-4 years. Adesai hit it on the nose man.

mojo - I know you like AXP as they have a great track record, but AXP is not in favor and their business model of handing out free money in the hopes that consumers will repay is bound to burst. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86238-credit-card-breakdown-amex-disappoints-as-predicted?source=feed#comment-213376 213376 Thu, 24 Jul 2008 11:27:05 -0400
And yes... ALL stocks now matter what sector, will have highs and lows..it's one big roller-coaster ride.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86238-credit-card-breakdown-amex-disappoints-as-predicted?source=feed#comment-213052 213052 Thu, 24 Jul 2008 07:43:32 -0400 i hear comments like AMX won't be around in two years. All stocks including V and MA will experience all time lows and highs. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86238-credit-card-breakdown-amex-disappoints-as-predicted?source=feed#comment-212909 212909 Wed, 23 Jul 2008 23:22:56 -0400
I know 90% of the people here understand this but let me re-state it.

1. Visa and MasterCard are in the Services sector. American Express is in the Financial sector. Apples and Oranges.

2. Visa and MA will NEVER turn into a credit issuer as a previous poster suggested, they will never be worried about whether someone defaults on their credit or pays on time.

3. As a poster here pointed out, Amex is experiencing huge amounts of large credit line defaults - again, an issue V or MA will never have to deal with.

4. "Although charge-offs are picking up recently, that's not a big deal, these losses can be offset by hiking overall rates on customers, or hiking fees on Merchants" - mojo

- Yeah... and the consumers are just going to rush right out and apply for Amex because they want to pay the extraordinary fees that won't amount to a drop in the bucket in terms of making up for the huge charge-offs and credit defaults Amex is dealing with now.

5. I'm pretty sure I won't look back in 2 years and wish I'd bought a few shares of Amex today.
Even though I think financials will eventually come up for air. There are just some credit issuers, lenders, and banks that won't survive long enough to catch that life-saving breath.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86238-credit-card-breakdown-amex-disappoints-as-predicted?source=feed#comment-212779 212779 Wed, 23 Jul 2008 19:27:01 -0400
Have you seen MA chart for the last 2-3 years. Its on a steep incline.... WHY???? MA and V is targeting developing countries. In china 1 in 30 owns a cc; in india its about 1 in 60. These are huge potential markets. Global trend from cash to credit is occuring at a exponential rate. With the summer olympics along with huge chinese/ indian/ middle eastern banks investment in V, look for about 10-15% increase in credit card transaction year on year, which is what CEO saunders has predicted. Suntrust has a price target of $100 which is what V willl likely be trading at within several months.

Amx and DFS will likely be bankrupt or be in the red within several years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86238-credit-card-breakdown-amex-disappoints-as-predicted?source=feed#comment-212756 212756 Wed, 23 Jul 2008 18:53:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/86238-credit-card-breakdown-amex-disappoints-as-predicted?source=feed#comment-212725 212725 Wed, 23 Jul 2008 17:57:00 -0400
MasterCard and Visa are equally toxic. What's stopping a large card issuers from switching its card to Visa from MasterCard, or vice versa? Prices. Visa, MasterCard and Discover will be in a pricing war to get cardissuers to issue their card.

I like Discover, its earning is still strong. Although charge-offs are picking up recently, that's not a big deal, these losses can be offset by hiking overall rates on customers, or hiking fees on Merchants, and lower funding costs due the lower interest rate cut by the FED

Visa and MasterCard's loyalty lies with large banks. Top 10 banks control almost 70% of the transaction volumes, losing one large client will see the stock price fall off a cliff. That will happen after banks sell their stocks in MasterCard and Visa.

Visa and MasterCard are like emperors without clothes, they don't have any direct relationship with consumers. Their futures are in the hands of large banks.

I wouldn't touch V and MA with a 10 foot pole, these two stocks are the trainwreck waiting to happen, after about 1-2 years from now. People who buy these two stocks don't understand Microeconomics]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86238-credit-card-breakdown-amex-disappoints-as-predicted?source=feed#comment-212207 212207 Wed, 23 Jul 2008 08:42:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/86238-credit-card-breakdown-amex-disappoints-as-predicted?source=feed#comment-212057 212057 Wed, 23 Jul 2008 01:37:22 -0400