Seeking Alpha

Icarus Falling

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Icarus Falling's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Preview Copy Of Article On PTO Risk To Vringo Royalties [View instapost]
    Dan,

    Do you accord no weight to Vringo's argument that "it is apparent that the jury made a simple decimal point transposition error in arriving at its damages amounts."

    It seems to me that this is the more logical argument as it relates to the running royalty than the numbers the jury awarded as those numbers do not make sense when you look at the amount awarded against Google as compared to the other defendants.

    The better of the argument seems to be that the Google number was the mistake that warrants an upward revision as opposed to Google's argument which is that its number should be revised down based on the other defendants' numbers.

    Thanks,
    Dec 13 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Verdict And Future Royalties Against Google On Shaky Ground [View article]
    It works both ways. Google says that based on the damages awarded against it, it proves that the Royalty Base is 2.8% instead of 20.9%, and therefore any running royalty should be based on this. Google also argues that based on this, the award to the other defendants makes no sense and should be adjusted downward.

    The opposite is also true. The award as against the other defendants corresponds more to the 20.9% number that Vringo put forth at trial than the 2.8% number that Google says the jury used to calculate its damages.

    Vringo will certainly argue that it is the Google damages number that is the outlier and they will have the better of that argument based on the evidence at trial.

    I understand your frustration that public reports have constantly published incorrect information regarding whether a future royalty has been awarded, but I think your analysis as it relates to the facts is short sighted. As you have not even seen Vringo's responses to the most recent motion or the other post-trial motions, I think any analysis is premature.

    I wholeheartedly disagree that Google has the upper hand. I believe based on the facts and the law that any damages adjustment as it applies to the running royalty will only benefit Vringo and that they will realize the hundreds of millions of dollars that people have been talking about. Just because they have not been awarded it yet, as falsely reported does not mean it is not coming.
    Dec 5 09:57 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Short Vringo Above $4 [View article]
    You offer no analysis of why the two ZTE lawsuits will not succeed. You do know there is one in Great Britian that was filed well before the recently filed Germany action. You simply state that Nokia would not have sold the patents if they were valuable.

    Do you even know that Nokia gets 35% of what Vringo recovers based on these patents? That it would have been much harder for Nokia to enforce and extract the full value from these patents than Vringo and therefore Nokia took $22 million upfront and they expect much more on the back end. Have you research to find analysis of what these patents are worth? The answer is no.

    You fail to examine the reason for the equity offering. Was the company suppose to limp along with minimal cash on hand as it completed its battle with Google and began initiation of litigation against ZTE? Companies raise money. The dilution was not bad considering the hundreds of millions at stake.

    Do you know anything about Vringo's management and their experience in patent litigation and the Nokia patents? Of course you do not.

    Did you see in Vringo's recent earnings release that they purchased additional patents relating to internet advertising bidding? You see those advertisements at the left and right of your screen? How do you think they wind up there?

    The Modernist. Really? I think you would be better served finding more reputable sources. The Google settlement is worth more than the Modernist states.

    Also, Vring is putting money into research. Read the earnings call transcript. They are doing it very efficiently. Would you rather they waste money in doing it?

    Are you really comparing Google and Vringo when you state that Google has not diluted shareholders? While Vringo is undervalued and is entitled to a large amount of money from Google, the companies are not comparable. Try looking at other "patent troll" companies for a comparison.

    It is okay to no like what Vringo does, but you have let that infect your analysis. Now, I may be wrong, and Vringo may fail, but everything I have seen to date and everything I know, leads to the conclusion that the company is currently fairly valued at between $10-$15 and you can easily make a case for $20 with a very reasonable multiple depending on how the Google money comes in.

    Look at James Altucher's worst case scenario for Vringo and I think you will see, the downside is really non-existent at this time.

    Feel free to short. You may make money. The market is irrational at times and as long as the final terms of the Google judgment remain unresolved, misinformation and speculation can still cause wild irrational swings in the stock price. Ultimately though, the only direction that makes any sense for this stock is up and that move should be large.
    Nov 20 09:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PharmAthene - All Is Not Lost Yet [View article]
    You have the FDA decision on the resumption of the clinical trial which could happen in Q1. I am watching this stock closely and at this time depending on where my money is allocated at the time, plan to start a position in Q1 leading up to the early Q2 decision from the Supreme Court. I of course could be wrong, but I expect PIP to have the verdict sustain, i.e. successfully defend against SIGA's appeal.
    Nov 8 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Vringo Worth? [View article]
    I hope I am wrong, but I continue to get the feeling that Google is taking this to trial.
    Oct 9 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Vringo Worth? [View article]
    James:

    Thank you for the update. While I agree that it makes all the sense in the world for Google (Apple, Microsoft etc.) to buyout Vringo, I continue to believe that a settlement is much more likely at this point simply based on the status of the litigation. They are on the courthouse steps with a mediation scheduled in front of the magistrate judge for tomorrow for about 4 hours until they have the final pre-trial conference in front of the district court judge.

    Google can always settle due to the short term time crunch and attempt to buyout Vringo later.
    Oct 8 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PharmAthene - All Is Not Lost Yet [View article]
    Of course it is a gamble. It is not a verdict. PIP won a verdict at trial. It is upholding the verdict on appeal. Yes it is very tough to value, but I think a double is safe to assume.
    Oct 5 07:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo - The Docket Is Telling Us That Summary Judgment Is Not An Option For Google [View article]
    They can only do it that way by denying Google's motion. I am not going another round with you. It was not possible for the court to do so and grant Google's motion. It is very easy for the court to place all the papers on two tables, see that the stack of papers comes up to their heads, look at the stack of papers and say "there must be an issue of fact in there somewhere, summary judgment denied."
    Oct 3 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo - The Docket Is Telling Us That Summary Judgment Is Not An Option For Google [View article]
    The Court looked at the stack of papers and simply said there are issues of fact. It would never have issued a summary judgment in Google's favor given the timing.
    Oct 3 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tangible Possibility Of A Black-Swan Judgment Against Vringo [View article]
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    So I was right for all of the reasons stated above.
    Oct 3 11:57 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo - The Docket Is Telling Us That Summary Judgment Is Not An Option For Google [View article]
    Summary Judgment Denied as I said it would be by a summary 1 page order. Thanks.
    Oct 3 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Responds To Google's Motion For Summary Judgment [View article]
    Summary Judgment Denied as I said it would be by a summary 1 page order.
    Oct 3 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tangible Possibility Of A Black-Swan Judgment Against Vringo [View article]
    Whenever you want to apologize, you can post something on one of my articles.

    Summary Judgment Denied!
    Oct 3 11:52 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PharmAthene - All Is Not Lost Yet [View article]
    I think it may drift lower or stay in this range without any catalysts or new until next year. We do not know when they will receive a decision from the FDA or the Delaware Supreme Court. Both events are expected Q1 of next year. If you have spare money not a bad idea to build a base. If either the Court or FDA news is positive, you coudl see a 50% gain.
    Oct 3 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Responds To Google's Motion For Summary Judgment [View article]
    I was not impressed. They seemed to reaching by saying there are no disputed issued of fact and taking tortured positions relating to the common understanding of plain english words.

    I would be surprised if it were granted. I would also be surprised if Google even moves for a stay this close to trial. They would not get it and the Court would probably not look to kindly on the motion. At best they may raise it during a conference to gauge the temperature of the Court.
    Oct 2 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
149 Comments
100 Likes