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Igor Novgorodtsev

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  • The 'New' Perion - What Does The Future Hold For It? [View article]
    I am still cautiously optimistic. Obviously, PERI business is dependent on the whims of Google, Microsoft, and Yahoo so there is always significant risk.

    I think it may take a couple of quarters though for the stock to take off as investors want to see consolidated results without all the merger noise. PERI is also a very good trading vehicle as the large trading range allows to make money by frequently buying low and selling high.

    PERI traded similarly when Mandelbaum took over several years ago. It traded in the $4-$8 range and the investors hated the acquisition of Smilebox.
    Apr 19 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'New' Perion - What Does The Future Hold For It? [View article]
    I am afraid you are missing the point. Perion would have made $105 million in 2013 if the agreement never happened, including $18 million from its partner Conduit. The press release is crystal clear about it.

    Period guidance was for non-GAAP revenue and income last year. You may disagree with their methodology for guidance but they did absolutely meet what they promised in Q3. You can see that the stock reacted very positively to the Q1 earnings. It sold off in later weeks most likely in sympathy with other Internet companies.

    If you don't believe me, plot PERI against FDN (internet ETF) for last month. The correlation is nearly perfect.
    Apr 17 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'New' Perion - What Does The Future Hold For It? [View article]
    I think you misunderstood the release. Conduit was already a partner of Perion and it says that $17.5 million of revenue was received from CC regardless of the agreement. Read this:

    "Included in 2013 non GAAP revenues was $18 million in revenues generated through a commercial transaction with Conduit, which was entered into prior to the acquisition of their ClientConnect business."
    Apr 17 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'New' Perion - What Does The Future Hold For It? [View article]
    "Recently, the full year results have shown that the revenue was indeed $104.6 million, but with a hook: $17.5 million of the revenue came from CC! "

    The ClientConnect acquisition closed in January 2014. Where did you get $17.5 million from ClientConnect contribution in 2013? This cannot be right....

    I agree that Perion future is uncertain, but not necessarily in a bad way: for all downside, which is already reflected in a large discount to its intrinsic value, there is a tremendous upside if things go right.

    The most important factor to consider is that people don't want to pay for software, even a trivial amount. This will probably never change. Very much like TV advertisement will never go away even if all TV goes on streaming media, there will always be room for someone to provide a platform to monetize your software regardless whether its' PC, mobile, beamed in your retina, or sent as a brain wave.

    I cannot guarantee that it will be Perion who will benefit (although their chances are good), but the opportunity will only grow with time. This is not a declining business at all.
    Apr 17 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dipping My Toe Into Small Cap Technology [View article]
    I still like all three. VSR last quarter was bad but it was probably disrupted by the aftermath of the government shutdown, or so its management says. If this is true, this quarter could have a nice upside. FTLF and MICT are much more speculative, boom or bust types, but big potential is there. You should look at CTCM - it's got a nice Russian discount but should not suffer much from sanctions...
    Apr 9 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dipping My Toe Into Small Cap Technology [View article]
    Some of them but I don't disclose my exact holding unless I write an artcile. FTLF worked very well, MICT has been a wash so far, and VSR didn't quite work yet. Why did you ask?
    Apr 9 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dipping My Toe Into Small Cap Technology [View article]
    Sorry, you are right. The cash flow does show "positive" cash flow from operations which isn't real if you look at their balance sheet which was deteriorating until they issued dilutive convertible debt. This company has all hallmarks of a spectacular financial fraud once you dig in.
    Apr 9 12:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dipping My Toe Into Small Cap Technology [View article]
    Their Cash Flow from operations has been solidly negative last 3 years (the actual GAAP filings). It's their non-GAAP made up earnings and cash flow that's growing.
    Apr 8 06:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dipping My Toe Into Small Cap Technology [View article]
    Bret, I beg to differ:

    "Web.com earned just over $2 a share in FY2013." No, it didn't! It's been losing money for 12 quarters straight...don't listen to sell-side propaganda, look at their financial statements instead.
    Apr 8 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Cramer Goes Cautious On The Market [View article]
    Bret, I am surprised you hold Jim Cramer show in such a high regard. While I have a grudging admiration for Jim for building a popular show by connecting with an average Joe with a few thousands to invest, Cramer is definitely not a leading indicator.

    Today, he is explaining why he became cautious on momentum stocks after they have already been falling for quite some time. I would be more impressed if he was cautioning investors in December, but of course no such thing...

    All in all, I agree that the markets are frothy, but only certain sectors: biotech, discretionaries, and new tech are in the bubble territory.

    I believe the cause of the current correction is the the tax deadline. A lot of investors and traders made money in tech last year and need to sell to pay taxes.
    Apr 4 02:10 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Highway Holdings Limited Move To Myanmar Should Add 50% To Its Value [View article]
    Thank you. I just started looking at other small companies moving to Burma. Their government seems quite focused on promoting manufacturing.

    http://bit.ly/QFKR79
    Apr 2 11:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Highway Holdings Limited Move To Myanmar Should Add 50% To Its Value [View article]
    Thanks for reading. HIHO started small in Myanmar with some sub-contracting last year. If it works out, I expect them to move at least half of their business there...
    Apr 2 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerson Radio Is No Longer A Value Trap [View article]
    Waitin, yes, academically you are correct that preferred should be deducted and practically it may need to be bought out in case of MSN being acquired. Perhaps, I was being a bit lazy to check preferred covenants after seeing it was neither convertible nor entitled to a dividend or a vote.

    In any case, $3.6 million extra doesn't change the liquidation value too much: it trades at $56 million cap and the liquidation value is still around $114-115 million.
    Mar 31 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerson Radio Is No Longer A Value Trap [View article]
    Thanks for mentioning preferred shares. I am aware about 3,310 preferred shares outstanding. I don't think, however, that these shares need to be bought out as they are worth 3.6 million in liquidation only (non-convertible, no dividends, no votes).

    Note that Emerson is not being liquidated at all, just its parent, Grande. In my opinion, preferred shares currently worth very little.
    Mar 30 10:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerson Radio Is No Longer A Value Trap [View article]
    Emerson still has a name recognition. Few people in North America have heard of Funai. If what you said were true, why would Funai sign a multi-year agreement in the first place.
    Mar 30 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
372 Comments
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