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Igor Novgorodtsev

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  • Willi-Food International Should Be Taken Private For A Potential 100% Gain [View article]
    Steffen, I was as confused as you are. I was on the call but didn't ask the question as I wasn't sure at that point if I've heard it right. I did the analysis of the release line-by-line and my take out price is lower. In any case, I am fairly confident that my numbers are right. Perhaps, he adjusted his numbers for cash on hand but this would not be the official take-out price. I encourage you to re-read the release and double-check my numbers.

    http://yhoo.it/1dsktYc
    Mar 26 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Detailed Case To Short The S&P 500: This Time Isn't Different [View article]
    "Current Fed policies are causing stagflation". Huh? The inflation is less than 2%. Yes, once should stop reading right there.
    Mar 24 02:06 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Willi-Food International Should Be Taken Private For A Potential 100% Gain [View article]
    I'd like to see a precedent of that. The lawyers would have a field day...
    Mar 24 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Willi-Food International Should Be Taken Private For A Potential 100% Gain [View article]
    Perhaps this:

    "In addition to holding WILC, the parent WFLD makes occasional loans to other companies. More recently, it was involved in an attempted rescue of IDB holding corporation to which it extended an $18.3 million convertible loan."

    Although my understand that the loan was made by the parent WFLD. Will need to wait for a full filing.
    Mar 24 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Willi-Food International Should Be Taken Private For A Potential 100% Gain [View article]
    Josh,

    I don't think it's easy. In order to delist, you need to buy out minority shareholders, which would imply you have to pay a 30% or so premium to the market share price.

    A number of Chinese small caps delisted after being hit by short sellers (many perhaps fairly) and minority shareholders made out like bandits:

    http://bit.ly/1gRvpJA

    There is some structural protection for the share buy-out by the way:

    "makes a tender offer at the same price to 5% of other shareholders (to satisfy the law that the buy-out offer is made at a fair price to all shareholders)"
    Mar 24 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Willi-Food International Should Be Taken Private For A Potential 100% Gain [View article]
    To be honest, I haven't researched A/R issue in detail but thanks for bringing it up. I was more interested in the transaction and motivations behind it. Same goes for interest income.

    I am valuing WILC on its book value, cash, and the purchase price by a well-informed buyer, not FCF and income.

    The price you expressed is a matter of opinion. WFI has also liabilities. WFI's last published B/S is in my article. In my view, you can't just subtract cash from the purchase price if the liabilities are present.

    I did line-by-line valuation based in the press release but my numbers are also a matter of opinion. What's beyond dispute though that Emblaze valued the company much, much higher than the market and they have all the inside information.
    Mar 23 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Willi-Food International Should Be Taken Private For A Potential 100% Gain [View article]
    It's not a matter of trust but a matter of self-interest. Unless, you think he is not interested in making money from WILC, you don'tr have to like like the buyer personally.
    Mar 23 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Willi-Food International Should Be Taken Private For A Potential 100% Gain [View article]
    Stevie, I am not sure how much Emblaze is worth as a standalone. The financial information is limited.
    Mar 23 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Willi-Food International Should Be Taken Private For A Potential 100% Gain [View article]
    Thanks Steffen for your comment. I have no idea though how WILC management came up with $15.4 share price. Perhaps this is what they WILC should be worth (which is close to my price target in a private buy-out).

    This is certainly not the price WLFD was bought for. I went through the release line-by-line.
    Mar 23 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerson Radio Is No Longer A Value Trap [View article]
    Please see the reply above. I obviously disagree.

    12 put option there is actually to protect Emblaze in case the brother want to sell cheaper to dilute its stake.
    Mar 23 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerson Radio Is No Longer A Value Trap [View article]
    This is not how the bankruptcy works. Grande can't declare shares worthless (especially they are publicly traded) or give it to "some hedge fund". Even if they are also control the creditors, it's in their interest, as a creditor, to sell the company at the highest possible price. In case of a sale everyone gets compensated equally (pari passu). Grande can propose a reorg plan to which 2/3 of creditors must agree (or the creditors can propose their won plan, also subject to 2/3 vote rule). If the bankruptcy judge sees no progress being made, he can "cram down" the most reasonable solution.

    So unless you have evidence that the judge was bribed and Grande hates money, the chances of what you describe is pretty much nil. What could happen is Grande drags out the bankruptcy process to infinity by proposing a number of reogr plans, but the process in its final stages and the game should end within months.
    Mar 23 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Willi-Food International Should Be Taken Private For A Potential 100% Gain [View article]
    Joey, yes, nothing is ever that simple and there's risk. Yet, to get the company go private, there is no easy way around buying out minority shareholders to delist from NASDAQ.

    This reminds me of an old joke: two (University of Chicago) economists walk on the street and one notices a $100 dollar bill lying on the ground. One says: Look, $100 bill! The other says: Nah, I won't bother picking it up. If it was real, someone would have already taken it.

    WILC is that $100 bill. There is a decent chance it's real, if it's not, you won't lose too much as it's already very cheap.
    Mar 22 12:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Willi-Food International Should Be Taken Private For A Potential 100% Gain [View article]
    Thanks Yair. The article was concentrating on the share sale deal. I recommend an article I linked for business overview.

    Why do you think they got "preferential treatment" from Shuferstal in the first place?
    Mar 22 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micronet Enertec: Post-Merger Messy Financials Obscure Explosive Growth Potential [View article]
    Haven't had a chance to go through all details. I may do a follow up piece after some analysis. The financials are still quite messy due to a merger. Judging by the stock price action, the market was clearly confused about the results yesterday.
    Mar 20 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Nuclear Option: Russia's Threat To Dump Treasuries [View article]
    Agree. Add to this Dagestan and Tatarstan. Both of the peoples have talked about secession from Russia for many years. I think Putin only knows tactics but has no strategy. He will win some battles but will lose the war.
    Mar 14 03:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
372 Comments
382 Likes