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Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Molycorp: A Second Chance: Part III of III [View article]
    Wow, haven't been following MCP or any of the rare earth players recently, but looks like you were right about avoiding this sector. So are there any rare earth players worth anything or can we just get all the necessary supply from Chinese miners that undercut everyone else?
    Jan 24, 2015. 06:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies 2015: Firing From All Cylinders [View article]
    So they contributed $80M each (maybe, depending on how much you really think the idle factories were worth) just last year, and now it's already worth $6 BILLION, 37.5 TIMES THIS? Ridiculous, use some common sense, please.
    Jan 23, 2015. 09:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Simple Pairs Trade In Online Coupons [View article]
    Totally agree, I think I suggested this same pair trade in a comment on another article but never got around to writing an article on it:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    However, I think an even better pair trade would be to go long YELP and short ANGI/COUP/GRPN.
    Jan 23, 2015. 09:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors' Guide To El Nino, Climate Change And Summer Weather Forecast [View article]
    Fair enough, definitely something to keep an eye on and it's a balancing act between causing irreversible climate change while at the same time not unneccessarily giving up a fuel source that continuously has improved people's lives by giving us access to cheap, reliable energy.

    However, I would point out that the actual data is right on the lower edge of the supposed 95% confidence level. This may be due to the external factors you mention, but once we actually have the data shouldn't we be using Bayesian probability intervals and adjust the models accordingly?
    Jan 22, 2015. 11:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Bet On A Yelp Buyout [View article]
    But they're already profitable on a GAAP basis, unlike some of the other companies that have to adjust for stock based compensation to show any earnings, and like you mention they have a huge cash cushion if they eventually have to pay more salaries in cash. As a shareholder I think I would actually prefer that rather than further dilution by giving away cheap shares.
    Jan 22, 2015. 08:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies 2015: Firing From All Cylinders [View article]
    How in the hell can they IPO the JV when it's 50% owned by Kandi and Geeky investors?

    Are they just going to say "you know that supposedly super valuable company you thought you owned half of? Sorry, we're going to give it away to other investors."
    Jan 20, 2015. 07:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Star For Yelp [View article]
    Really, still with the conspiracy theories that they manipulate reviews even after the second FTC probe that found nothing?

    YELP is the ultimate in targeted advertising, why don't you think small businesses wouldn't find that valuable and start directing a larger share of their advertising budget there over traditional media?
    Jan 20, 2015. 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Need A Little Amazon Right This Very Minute [View article]
    Does that whisper number exclude some supposed onetime items like the Fire Phone? Because I thought they were forecasting another huge loss this quarter.
    Jan 20, 2015. 07:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet your new movie studio [View news story]
    Don't forget they can also use capital leases to improve their cash flow. Woody Allen probably only has a decade of "useful life" left, so they can just amortize his salary over that time period and their reported FCF goes up!
    Jan 20, 2015. 12:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Bet On A Yelp Buyout [View article]
    Yup, Urbanspoon's platform is so solid that Zomato bought it just to shut it down, which actually benefits Yelp as well for the time being. Or did you mean Zomato's platform was more solid, because having to rely on sales reps rather than free user generated reviews that benefit from the network effect strikes me as a much worse business model.

    If your main argument against investing in Yelp is that tired old conspiracy theory that they manipulate reviews, then I feel pretty confident in my investment, especially after the FTC closed their second comprehensive review of their business practices with no actions. Yelp is the best thing to happen to good small businesses, and I think they will start to increase the share of their advertising budget they spend on the platform since it is the ultimate in targeting advertising.
    Jan 20, 2015. 12:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conn's Has Been Deemed A Perfect Short [View article]
    That's total BS that they could survive with half their loans going bad and you know it, the increase in the delinquency rate to "only" 10% led to a huge earnings implosion, there's no way they could survive a few more quarters like that with only $5M in cash unless they draw upon the $335M they have left on their revolving credit facility, and that's a slippery slope since the interest rate on that increases the more leveraged they become.

    They just raised $234M in 7.6% notes to pay down this facility, which shows you how hesitant they are to use it because they know it's their final lifeline, since there's no way they could raise debt at even those junk bond levels with their financial situation now.

    Heck, this supposedly great credit portfolio they've got only yields 8.7% after net charge offs, so they're right on the edge of having their cost of borrowing eclipse this, which would basically make the portfolio worthless and them insolvent.

    On a more positive note, they launched a children's literacy program today, so I hope they can stay afloat long enough to contribute as much as possible to this fine charity.
    Jan 20, 2015. 12:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Bet On A Yelp Buyout [View article]
    YELP already is profitable, has been for several quarters. Obviously since they only just became profitable it looks expensive and doesn't yet have the consistency that Buffett would look for, but just do some back of the envelope calculations to see how profitable they can become if they just continue on their current revenue growth trajectory while starting to rein in expenses like they've been doing.
    Jan 19, 2015. 11:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet your new movie studio [View news story]
    OK, Gary, so it's not billions (yet), it will "only" be hundreds of millions, because apparently Woody Allen is desperate for money and works cheap now...
    Jan 19, 2015. 04:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies: Investable Macro Revisited (And Visited) [View article]
    Given that all those authors are supposedly long KNDI, have we gotten a similar disclosure from frellgem?

    I assume she's long, but would be curious to know when she bought the shares and why she started defending the company so vigorously given that it has actually performed so well despite the recent swoon.
    Jan 19, 2015. 04:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet your new movie studio [View news story]
    "$200 million of that used to develop original shows"

    Sorry, I missed the part about how movies are way cheaper to develop than TV shows.
    Jan 19, 2015. 04:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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