Unfortunately The Casino Does Not Always Win [View article]
Not sure why anyone would buy debt-laden companies like MGM or CZR instead of higher quality ones like WYNN or LVS that are actually cheaper on almost every single important metric.
How To Play The Salesforce.com Earnings Announcement [View article]
Is it possible that the analysts keep underestimating (non-GAAP) earnings because they're not as creative at accounting than CRM?
Benioff is playing analysts and investors with slight of hand accounting tricks: pay no attention to the (lack of) earnings behind the curtain, focus on deferred revenue growth, $4B run rate, or just the general awesomeness of CRM and their incredible, amazing leader.
It Is Not Different This Time - It Is Worse [View article]
Bret, I agree with you that Europe is a basket case, France is following the script to "Atlas Shrugged" almost exactly by driving away their most productive people, and Germany is shouldering the load of the PIIG deadweights like the aforementioned titular character, but none of this seems to matter in the face of what is being perceived as an unstoppable bull market, so rather than trying to fight it and convince yourself or others that there are cracks in the facade, just relax and use the market's strength to build up a cash stockpile that can be redeployed when the actual economy finally starts to drag down the market.
The Case For A 100% Dividend Stock Portfolio [View article]
That was my point as well, dividends are not some magical elixir that are the only possible source of compounding, rather they are paid out of earnings (or more specifically cash flow) and thus could theoretically be reinvested more efficiently to compound earnings and thus increase your overall investment amount faster.
Of course, dividend hounds often have a point that excess money lying around a company often finds its way into executives' pockets rather than being profitably reinvested in the business, so I think we'll have to agree (that you should buy high quality companies) to disagree (that dividends are always the HBU of excess cash).
The Case For A 100% Dividend Stock Portfolio [View article]
What does it matter what the mechanism for compounding is as long as the overall value of the investment increases? If a company pays out all its earnings in dividends then it will likely not have any earnings growth and the stock price will go down or stagnate at best.
Yes, your number of shares are compounding but your overall investment is compounding at a slower rate than if you held a static number of shares in a company that was compounding earnings and/or book value. Before you say I slept through math class, at least try to do the math yourself.
The Case For A 100% Dividend Stock Portfolio [View article]
Yes, it does. The formula for compounding is FV = PV (1 + i)^N, where PV is the present value and i is the rate of return, which doesn't have to be an interest rate or dividend, it could be a return on equity.
Then you could use shareholder's equity as the PV and the future book value would compound at the rate of the ROE. Since stock price is generally linked to book value via the P/B ratio, the price of the stock would indeed be compounding according to the underlying increase in book value.
Dividend Stocks, Silver, And Safety [View article]
I'm not trying to play "word games" or make "torturous walks around a topic" to win the glory of getting a few "likes" on my comment, I just like to engage in spirited debate with those who have a different perspective because I think it's a good way to use this site to learn.
Apparently you've written off non-productive assets as a investment class and have backed it up with sound reasoning, so I can appreciate that but I just don't happen to share your conclusion. That doesn't seem like a good enough reason to gang up on me and dismiss the rest of my comments that you might actually learn something from.
IPOs: Value Creation Or Value Realization For GSV Capital? [View article]
You mentioned they made no initial investments in new companies, which makes their reluctance to buy back shares even more aggravating, since they could be buying all the companies in their portfolio at a huge discount by buying their own stock!
Dividend Stocks, Silver, And Safety [View article]
We can agree to disagree about silver but it seems like you're channeling the very EMH logic that I would expect a value investor to usually mock by saying it's much easier to win the game when your opponents insist it's not even worth trying.
Dividend Stocks, Silver, And Safety [View article]
I'll assume you'd reject any method that included comparison to gold or any other commodity, since those are non-productive assets (an oxymoron, as only liabilities are non-productive) as well, so you have to look at historical supply and demand.
Specifically, you can look at how much demand there is versus how much money there is to buy it, and silver bullion supplies are at their lowest levels in years and silver production has also decreased, while demand (not to mention the money supply) has continued to increase. So while I'll admit that I can't tell you an exact intrinsic value for silver, it is almost certainly higher than it is selling for right now.
Low Silver Prices Will Dull Silver Wheaton's Earnings [View article]
Yes, but that is more than priced in at this point and the low prices could give them leverage to acquire additional streams and increase production even more.
Panera - A Terribly Positioned Company [View article]
PNRA serves good food that is fairly healthy in an inviting setting, so it is no surprise that they have build quite a loyal following of customers.
If you want to argue that the stock is overpriced, maybe, but there's no way it's "terribly positioned", rather it seems to be right in the sweet spot of fast casual options and thus is a very dangerous short.
Thompson Creek: Undervalued As Mount Milligan Approaches Completion [View article]
Good call, latest earnings report showed improvement in molybdenum production, hopefully they can keep the momentum going as they bring Milligan online.
Low Silver Prices Will Dull Silver Wheaton's Earnings [View article]
The price of silver didn't really start dropping until mid-February and then fell off a cliff in April, but I don't think that would have a big effect on the May 10 earnings since that 1st quarter period only runs through March 31st, right?
Unfortunately The Casino Does Not Always Win [View article]
How To Play The Salesforce.com Earnings Announcement [View article]
Benioff is playing analysts and investors with slight of hand accounting tricks: pay no attention to the (lack of) earnings behind the curtain, focus on deferred revenue growth, $4B run rate, or just the general awesomeness of CRM and their incredible, amazing leader.
It Is Not Different This Time - It Is Worse [View article]
The Case For A 100% Dividend Stock Portfolio [View article]
Of course, dividend hounds often have a point that excess money lying around a company often finds its way into executives' pockets rather than being profitably reinvested in the business, so I think we'll have to agree (that you should buy high quality companies) to disagree (that dividends are always the HBU of excess cash).
The Case For A 100% Dividend Stock Portfolio [View article]
Yes, your number of shares are compounding but your overall investment is compounding at a slower rate than if you held a static number of shares in a company that was compounding earnings and/or book value. Before you say I slept through math class, at least try to do the math yourself.
The Case For A 100% Dividend Stock Portfolio [View article]
Then you could use shareholder's equity as the PV and the future book value would compound at the rate of the ROE. Since stock price is generally linked to book value via the P/B ratio, the price of the stock would indeed be compounding according to the underlying increase in book value.
The Case For A 100% Dividend Stock Portfolio [View article]
Dividend Stocks, Silver, And Safety [View article]
Apparently you've written off non-productive assets as a investment class and have backed it up with sound reasoning, so I can appreciate that but I just don't happen to share your conclusion. That doesn't seem like a good enough reason to gang up on me and dismiss the rest of my comments that you might actually learn something from.
IPOs: Value Creation Or Value Realization For GSV Capital? [View article]
Dividend Stocks, Silver, And Safety [View article]
Dividend Stocks, Silver, And Safety [View article]
Specifically, you can look at how much demand there is versus how much money there is to buy it, and silver bullion supplies are at their lowest levels in years and silver production has also decreased, while demand (not to mention the money supply) has continued to increase. So while I'll admit that I can't tell you an exact intrinsic value for silver, it is almost certainly higher than it is selling for right now.
Low Silver Prices Will Dull Silver Wheaton's Earnings [View article]
Panera - A Terribly Positioned Company [View article]
If you want to argue that the stock is overpriced, maybe, but there's no way it's "terribly positioned", rather it seems to be right in the sweet spot of fast casual options and thus is a very dangerous short.
Thompson Creek: Undervalued As Mount Milligan Approaches Completion [View article]
Low Silver Prices Will Dull Silver Wheaton's Earnings [View article]