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  • Dumb Investment Of The Week: Tesla Motors Stock [View article]
    Elon Musk could very well be a Martian who dreams of returning to his homeworld someday, but right now the stock is practically pricing in that he is not just an advanced being, but a god whose decrees always come true.
    Mar 10 02:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Or Salesfarce.com? You Decide! [View article]
    I hope Benioff does some good with shareholder money before this charade blows up, but I know from watching American Greed that charitable giving is often a manifestation of the guilt that comes from knowingly running a scam. I think the headline of this article outlining his call for companies to give back and not take advantage of people is going to be incredibly ironic in retrospect:

    http://yhoo.it/1irYU7U
    Mar 10 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Can't Tell You Where Its Revenues Come From [View article]
    Thanks for pimping my article, Wally. I have yet to hear a viable explanation for how revenue growth can be so consistent, and apparently now the SEC wants to know as well.
    Mar 10 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Can't Tell You Where Its Revenues Come From [View article]
    Yes, CFO "retiring" next year at age 55, rarely a good sign.
    Mar 10 01:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Recent Financing May Bite Back [View article]
    Hey, why not, Ford and GM sell antiquated horseless carriages by comparison, and they trade at P/S ratios of 42 and 39, respectively.

    Oh wait, sorry, that's .42 and .39, but TSLA's so good it's still a bargain at 15 times sales.
    Mar 10 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Is Living On Borrowed Time [View article]
    Interesting that you would choose the words "new paradigm", take a look at this chart of the classic stages in a bubble:

    http://bit.ly/1qpLHlE

    Just curious what you think the long term profit potential is for the four companies you mention, plus CRM. Is it enough to support a combined market cap of over $800 billion?
    Mar 10 12:32 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Is Living On Borrowed Time [View article]
    Totally agree with your assessment that salesforce.com is running what looks suspiciously like a Ponzi scheme. The current and noncurrent deferred revenues that are held off the balance sheet allow them to recognize whatever they need to maintain the consistent revenue growth that lures new investors in.
    Mar 10 01:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Silver And Gold Ready For New Lows? [View article]
    Even if Technical Analysts use charts as heuristics that supposedly let them forecast the direction of a stock, everyone would have to use the exact same method for it to have any real predictive power. Rather, I think TAs are falling victim to the very things like pattern recognition and overconfidence in their abilities which Behavioral Finance has documented.
    Mar 6 10:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Point To A Costco Negative Surprise [View article]
    Hey, I know I was critical of you for taking such a short term view, but you really nailed it. Good call.
    Mar 6 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market Is In Big Trouble [View article]
    Oh no, big Wall Street firms have bought up foreclosures for cash and are now securitizing them with rental income, compared to the prior crisis, where CDOs were secured by nothing but slices of subprime loans.

    Then: 0% down, unlikely to receive interest payments

    Now: 100% down, likely to receive steady rental income

    See the difference?
    Mar 5 06:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Fully Priced, With More Risk Than Opportunity [View article]
    Gross margins almost certainly won't go up if they price the model E in the range necessary to appeal to the mass market, in order to be able to come even close to selling half a million vehicles.
    Mar 5 04:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Dis-Economies Of Scale At Salesforce.com [View article]
    I agree with that sentiment, I think some of the highflighers like AMZN and CRM will sell off once they stop investing the business and actually show some earnings, but investors wonder "is that all there is?"


    Some people are assuming that at some point in the future both companies will have achieved critical mass and be able to dial back spending without affecting revenue growth, but the crazy thing is even if you remove ALL of CRM's SG&A spending, they would have earned $2.3B over the last 12 months, this is still a P/E of 16.5, higher than AAPL, ORCL, CSCO, MSFT, IBM, etc!
    Mar 4 05:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Point To A Costco Negative Surprise [View article]
    Well, since they have margins of 15%, it would be a net loss of about $1.5B, not $10B. But this is missing the bigger picture that people pay to shop there, that's one heck of a business model. And given this, wouldn't they be more likely to brave the winter weather to "get their money's worth" from their membership fees.

    Plus, many people get most of their household supplies from there, so it's not like they're going to skip a trip there like they would to the mall. If anything, lousy weather would make it more likely that they'd "stock up" while they're there, and if they're anything like most loyal Costco customers, still be right back there the next weekend.
    Mar 4 01:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Dis-Economies Of Scale At Salesforce.com [View article]
    I too am baffled by salesforce.com. If they have the best product, why do they constantly have to buy other companies for their technology and revenues?


    Also, why does it take so many salespeople and advertising to sell their services, especially ironic since they make sales and marketing tools that are supposed to help companies reduce costs.
    Mar 4 12:25 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dumb Investment Of The Week: Tesla Motors Stock [View article]
    That they tend to go down over time as more competition comes in, probably faster if you're a technology company with aspirations of world domination like AMZN and TSLA. Margins don't usually go up when you release a lower priced mass market product.
    Mar 4 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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