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Indifferent One

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  • Why You Should Buy Silver Before It's Too Late [View article]
    The reverse split was one for ten, not ten to one.
    Aug 30 07:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zygo: Overlooked, Cash-Heavy, And Ready To Rebound [View article]
    Here is the calculation if Zygo completed a buyback using only $60 million of their $90+ million cash hoard:

    $60,000,000/16.30=3.681 million shares
    Fully diluted shares now outstanding: 19.070 million
    Shares outstanding, pro-forma the buyback: 15.389 million
    Dec. quarterly GAAP $4.0 million net income pro-forma buyback: 26c/sh.

    Annualized Q413 EPS, pro-forma buyback: 1.04/sh.

    At 16.30, the pro-forma PE using EPS of 1.04= 15.67x

    For a company with $30 million pro-forma cash balance and no debt, 15.67x PE seems to be a modest PE for leading optics manufacturer. The earnings yield at 15.67x would be 6.4%. This is an excellent situation, especially with the prospect of 450mm standard coming in semiconductor industry.

    Given the Zygo's long history, maybe establishing a dividend might be the way to go. If they paid out 1/3 of their net income, the dividend yield on current earnings and current price would be 28c/sh per year, or 1.7%.

    For the six months ended 12/31/13, Zygo reported a net increase in cash of $7,385,000. If they had paid 7c per quarter in dividends during that six months, they would have paid out only $2.7 million or only 36% of net cash generated.

    Zygo seems to be a conservative way to "play" the possible conversion to 450mm. The current backlog may well start to reflect the boom times coming for advanced semiconductor equipment manufacturers.
    Mar 16 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Coeur Mining On Declining Gold Prices And Weak Fundamentals [View article]
    The company recently stated that as of Dec. 31, 2013 they had $207 million in cash and equivalents.

    You might rethink your understanding that it is always better having a higher current ratio than your competitor. You said that Coeur has a 1.7x current ratio and their competitors a 3.91x. Before you can conclude that you must look at the absolute numbers---for example those high current-ratio companies may be borrowing long term debt to use in current operations (that would increase their current ratios). Also the current operations must be put in perspective of the overall balance sheet. Coeur owns world-class properties.

    Reflecting the company's high cash flow, they have now started a streaming company as a subsidiary. Coeur is in excellent financial shape, and they will now use some of their excess cash flow to fund streaming investments.

    You might want to own some out of the money calls if you're short Coeur---it'll help you sleep.
    Jan 29 08:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Eastern Co. Weighed Down By $7.5M In Debt [View article]
    Marginal declines in financial ratios are always interesting but in Eastern's case you have to also look at absolute dollar amounts.

    Did you miss the $19,080,745 cash balance on their books on 9/30/13?

    So, if they paid off their entire $5 million of long-term debt they would still have $67,6 million of current assets versus current liabilities of $13.2 million---for a current ratio north of 5x.

    As I recall, that $5 million long-term debt was used to contribute to their pension fund, and that had certain tax benefits for the company.
    Dec 16 06:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick's Pascua-Lama Announcement: Will Have A Huge Impact On Future Gold And Silver Supply [View article]
    If ABX does not reach its 75% completion test, then ABX will be required to return $625 million to SLW (less adjustments for certain production), So SLW is in a great position. It is a good example of SLW's competence in structuring a deal.

    Here is language from SLW's press release:
    "According to the silver purchase agreement, if the requirements of the completion test have not been satisfied by the amended completion date, the agreement may be terminated by Silver Wheaton. In such an event, Silver Wheaton will be entitled to the return of the upfront cash consideration of $625 million less a credit for any silver delivered up to that date."
    Nov 3 03:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Wheaton Remains Overvalued Despite Stock Price Dip [View article]
    I think Jason was being other words, it seems hardly reasonable to compare unrelated companies.

    One way you might understand why and how SLW is nothing like the mining companies is the simple fact that SLW is on the OPPOSITE SIDE of the transactions with the mining companies. SLW provides capital to the mining companies.
    Oct 21 11:34 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Silver Wheaton Recover From Its Recent Fall? [View article]
    I find the following info intriguing as to the valuation of Silver Wheaton:

    On Feb. 5, 2013 the company invested $1.9 billion for a gold streams from a Brazil mine (Salobo) and an Ontario mine (Sudbury). On that day, gold was fixed at $1670 per ounce and SLW closed at 36.79 per share.

    It's true that gold has declined 21% from $1670 to $1317, but SLW shares have declined 37% over the same period. Over the same period silver has declined from 32.01 to 21.87 or 31.7%.

    It appears that the major $1.9 gold stream acquired by SLW was an excellent move by SLW, since gold has outperformed silver by 15.7% over the same period.

    As part of that large $1.9 billion transaction, SLW also issued 10 million warrants with an exercise price of $65 per share, expiring in 10 years.

    At 23.05 the shares of SLW have been hammered, more than the precious metals would suggest.
    Oct 20 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Graftech International Is A Deal [View article]
    I am sure you know that what's important is not the number of patents you own but the significance of your claims. For example, the early heat spreader patents of GTI seem important for electronic devices using plasma display and LED.

    It is hard for me to analyze the depth of that long list of patents, and you have to look at Applications as well as Grants. Maybe someone on this board can say if any of these are important in the grapheme area:
    Oct 20 01:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Silver Wheaton Recover From Its Recent Fall? [View article]
    That's right, just the stock price divided by the price per ounce of silver. There have been no splits in SLW so it is consistent across the time period.

    It's just a ballpark type of indicator.
    Oct 20 01:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Graphene: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly [View article]
    In your (page 3) they are referring to APPLICATIONS and AFTER 2007. Graftech was early and filed all these patent applications before that date. They even have won court judgments against those who violated their heat spreader patents for electronic equipment.

    Many of Graftech's patents were filed in 2002. What your source missed is you don't measure the value by what has been recently applied for---you measure the value by the significance of the CLAIMS made and granted. Take a look at the plasma display and LED patents that Graftech has in the list I provided.

    That is why Graftech is getting business from smartphone manufacturers.

    Since you have studied this area, why don't you glance at those 99 patent grants and evaluate the significance of Graftechs IP portfolio.
    Oct 18 06:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Graphene: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly [View article]
    I am puzzled. You said that Graftech is a "Company with a stated focus on graphite tech with their last grapheme patent being 2008."

    Here are recent graphene related patents as provided by Google Patents. There are 99 search results. Remember these are only GRANTS, not applications.

    What is your source for their not having a grant since 2008?

    Perhaps it is a matter of definition. Are these patent grants significant?

    Thanks for your notes.

    Oct 17 11:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Graftech International Is A Deal [View article]
    For your reference:

    It is not the number of the patents but the claims.
    Oct 17 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Silver Wheaton Recover From Its Recent Fall? [View article]
    SLW hit its 52-week low of 17.75 on June 26, 2013. On that day the London fix for silver (per Kitco) was 18.67 per ounce. So, incredibly SLW traded at an 8% discount to the price of silver per ounce.

    However, SLW hit its 52-week high of 41.30 on November 1, 2012. On that day the London fix for silver (per Kitco) was 32.66 per ounce, or at a PREMIUM of 26.45%.

    This is obviously an apples-to-oranges comparison, but still... I find it interesting. (Not surprisingly... I'm long.)

    What I do think is clear is that SLW will probably take on a rising premium as prices rise since they have a locked in stream of royalties from silver (and far less from gold).

    As I write this the spot silver is trading at 21.34 (per Netdania) and SLW closed at 22.25, or a current 4.26% premium over spot.

    Any thoughts about the relevancy of comparing the stock price to the silver price?

    Personally I would rather have SLW shares than the metal because you can have rising production impacting the value of the streams. So, it seems buying at a time of low premium to spot is probably advantageous.
    Oct 16 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • US Treasury Issues Fiscal Position Summary For 2013: Gold Investors Don't Miss The Forest For The Trees [View article]
    In your chart above, "US Government Debt", it would be fun in a separate column to see the historical data for the number of above-ground gold ounces in the world each year.

    However, in addition to the greater issuance of debt in the world vs. the production of gold, there appears to be an irreversible trend of lower grades produced. Unlike digital currency growth (which is created by a keystroke), you have to successfully find and then mine gold---and that is not easy.
    Oct 13 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • US Treasury Issues Fiscal Position Summary For 2013: Gold Investors Don't Miss The Forest For The Trees [View article]
    Wonderful work.

    One suggestion: Gold mining companies can disappoint due to costs, richness of veins, capex changes, etc. If the main factor in your liking mining companies that of future rising gold prices, I suggest you add the streamers: gold: FNV and RGLD and silver: SLW. These companies have no debt, lots of cash and get paid proportionally more or less with rising or falling gold prices. They are down around 50% from their 52-week highs.

    Thanks again.
    Oct 12 04:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment