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  • Planet Payment: Achieving Strong Growth And Superior Margins [View article]
    Nice write-up. Carl has really done a great job here and I feel confident with him behind the controls. They report earnings next week and I'm looking for a raise in full-year guidance.
    Jul 30, 2015. 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Payment Data Systems Still Has Triple Digit Upside [View article]
    I would guess pretty soon. I was told by the company a few weeks ago they would do the reverse split once they had verbal approval from the Nasdaq. The r/s was done last week, so the listing has to be close.
    Jul 29, 2015. 07:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnetek: Shares Compelling At 7x EPS With 14% Unlevered FCF Yield [View article]
    Nicely done!
    Jul 27, 2015. 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying Planet Payment Hand Over Fist [View article]
    Possibly. However, I think PLPM would be a better fit for a company like Global Payments (GPN).

    I'm surprised this company has remained independent for as long as it has, to be honest. There's been heavy consolidation in the payments space for the last 5 years.
    Jul 20, 2015. 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Scott's Liquid Gold's Remarkable Recovery [View article]
    I recently took a position here. Probably one of the better risk/rewards in the nano space right now.

    Based on your conversations with management, do you feel Q2 will follow the trend of Q1? Or could there be some negative lagging effects of the new contract that didn't show up in Q1? Thanks.
    Jul 14, 2015. 10:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • inTest: Grow With This Undervalued Cash-Rich Company [View article]
    With semis falling off a cliff lately, I'm not sure now would be good time to buy INTT. If those guys sneeze, INTT is going to get the flu.

    Management has also been pretty clueless in regards to capital allocation. They should have been buying back stock for years, and/or paying a dividend. Instead, they want to try to "grow" the business through inherently risky acquisitions.

    Good detail in the article though. With a different management team this stock should have been trading a lot higher. Problem is they're entrenched by owning nearly 30% of the stock and are more concerned with empire building than increasing shareholder value. And now, they've got headwinds from a semi slowdown.
    Jul 8, 2015. 10:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying Planet Payment Hand Over Fist [View article]
    That DCF forecast also gave no terminal value to the business after 10 years. So $87m is just the NPV of estimated cash flows over the next 10 years.

    The terminal value at the end of 10 years, assuming they're doing $20m in free cash flow at the end of 2025, would be north of $450m. Add that to the $87m.

    But again, there are way too many assumptions being made to rely on this model.
    Jun 10, 2015. 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying Planet Payment Hand Over Fist [View article]
    Who predicted $15?
    Jun 8, 2015. 07:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying Planet Payment Hand Over Fist [View article]
    That's not my forecast. I simply plugged in some numbers you gave me with an arbitrary growth rate.

    It's a fool's errand to forecast a company like this 10 years out...which is why I didn't do it in the article.

    And that NPV of $87m assumes the cash flows stop after 10 years, which is unlikely given this is more of a perpetuity style business. I'm sure you can figure out the NPV of a growing perpetuity yourself.
    Jun 8, 2015. 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying Planet Payment Hand Over Fist [View article]
    DCF models are basically useless for small growth companies...especially ones in the early innings like PLPM. I would only use it for mature companies where the cash flows and growth rates can be easily estimated. There are just too many variables to try and predict 10 years out right now. Just a 2% reduction in the WACC would increase the valuation by nearly $10m.

    A DCF model is just a tool. I know financial textbooks love to use them, but in real world applications they're hardly ever accurate, unless you're valuing Johnson & Johnson.
    Jun 8, 2015. 08:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying Planet Payment Hand Over Fist [View article]
    NPV for 10 years @ 10% growth and an 8% cost of capital with a baseline of $8m FCF would be around $87m. Not sure I would value a stock like this that way because a model like that is only as good as the numbers you estimate.
    Jun 8, 2015. 12:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Payment Data Systems Still Has Triple Digit Upside [View article]
    If you can get shares in the low .30's then that would be an excellent entry point. I'm really surprised the stock did not move higher after Q1 results, but the volume is still really low. I would also bet the upcoming Nasdaq listing could move the price higher as well.

    To be honest, based on the results they've reported over the last 6 months or so, I'd say there is less risk now at $0.33 than there was at $0.15.
    May 18, 2015. 06:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying Planet Payment Hand Over Fist [View article]
    1) Yes

    2) If my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle. The fact is, they have federal net operating loss carry forwards of $67.2 million, state net operating loss carry forwards of $68.1 million, and various foreign net operating loss carry forwards, the most significant of which expire between 2020 and 2033. Those just didn't magically fall out of the sky. So to try to "normalize" that would be foolish. Were you "normalizing" their losses 5 years ago by saying, "Well, they really didn't lose that much money because in 5 years they won't have to pay any tax." I guess you only "normalize" when it's convenient.
    May 16, 2015. 11:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying Planet Payment Hand Over Fist [View article]
    Not sure I'd define any company that's making money, has plenty of cash, and no debt, as on "life support", but to each his own.

    You're obviously not going to find perfect fundamentals in a stock priced like PLPM, but the stock is far from a gamble. The fundamentals are good enough to where there is downside protection, and still the opportunity to 2x your money.
    May 16, 2015. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying Planet Payment Hand Over Fist [View article]
    The r/s would take place before the listing and it would trade under a new ticker for a few days before being listed on the Nasdaq. Once approved, I'd say it should be listed within a week. I don't think shareholders have to vote on it, and it wouldn't matter anyway since insiders own over 50% of the company. The stock is a steal below $0.35, and really even below $0.45. I'd be buying more if I wasn't already 100% invested.
    May 15, 2015. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
217 Comments
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