Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
I specifically mentioned the dilution in my article. Get your facts straight.
"Just as with anything in life, there are tradeoffs. Implant's technology wasn't developed for free and they're carrying debt of about $38m. The good news is their lender has been accommodative and has amended their loan agreement several times, most recently extending the loan to March 2014. The not-so-good news is that this financing comes with the cost of dilutive stock options. Currently, the fully diluted share count is north of 100m shares, although many of those options are priced above where the stock is currently trading. This is not atypical with regards to small companies who have developed new technology, but it is something to factor in." ____________________
DMRJ could have decided to sell shares for any number of reasons...just like the reason you supposedly covered your short. It doesn't mean they don't have faith in the company. Fact is, when it came time to renegotiate the loan in March, DMRJ gave Implant everything they wanted...including 1:1 conversion on the new options.
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
You're not telling anybody anything new. 5 minutes of research and a high school student could see the share count is slightly over 100m fully diluted. That's a non-factor at this point and is already fully priced into the stock.
But you're still missing the bigger picture here. This was definitely a risky play last year before approval and the stock was trading higher last year than it is now. TSA approval alone is probably worth a few hundred million considering it's a billion dollar market and there are only 3 players...and 2 of them have equipment expiring this year.
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
So what made you decide to cover your short last week as you claimed in an earlier post? Obviously, you should still be short if you believe what you're saying. Lack of conviction maybe?
DMRJ only has $3m left of $0.08 options. The rest are convertible at about $1.15. Their interests are now aligned with shareholder interests.
Astrotech CEO Purchases 1.8 Million Shares Showing Confidence In Company [View article]
The core Space business is profitable with contracts that go many years into the future. The reason they're not profitable is the money they're spending on 1st Detect. I still think that subsidiary could be extremely lucrative, but if it doesn't show sales within the next year, they need to cut and run.
The next two quarters coming up should both be profitable due to more activity in their Space division.
And the book value is probably understated anyway. Their satellite processing facilities would cost over $100m to build new today.
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
I remember on a conference call a few months back where someone asked a question about a possible buyout and the entire management laughed and hinted that they had been approached by several interested parties.
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
I'm not really sure what the margins are on the B-220 since there were not very many sales of that last time they reported. The margins on their other product (H-150) are around 30%. Trying to model any financial numbers at this point would be a shot in the dark (other than figuring out fixed costs). The real wild card is how many ETD systems need replaced or implemented. I've heard 15,000 just for the U.S. alone. These things sell for $30,000+ a piece, so if you're off by a few thousand units it could really throw the model off. I said 500% upside thinking they could eventually capture 25%-50% of a $2b+ world market. That's really just a guess though.
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
My bet is based on the following facts:
1) Implant has the only system approved under the new 2012 TSA standards
2) Competitor's systems expire between now and January 1st.
3) Implant is moving to a facility more than 2x the size of its current facility two years before their lease is up.
4) Management has indicated there is high interest from the major air-cargo companies as well as government officials so much so that they took personal visits to Implant.
And yes, if a big order was placed, they could easily get financing for materials. That's a non-issue and is laughable that you would even bring it up.
DMRJ took all the risk here so I don't have a problem with their options. If Implant didn't get TSA approval, it would have been over and DMRJ would have been looking at a total loss.
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
You keep looking in the rear-view mirror and I'll keep looking ahead. One large order and that debt is wiped out. And considering there's about 15,000 ETD systems in the U.S. alone that need replaced or implemented (at $30,000 a pop) that's half a billion in revenue up for grabs.
Obviously, the debt is the elephant in the room that any 1st year business major could point to, but I care more about future prospects. I look at it like a biotech stock that just got FDA approval. Investors are willing to pay for future cash flow.
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
Well, they just opened up a new office in China 2 weeks ago and have been hiring several new positions so money is obviously not too tight. They wouldn't have doubled their manufacturing space if they didn't think big orders were coming. And you know their lender had to sign off on the move, so they were convinced by something.
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
The TSA isn't worried about explosions at screening facilities, they're worried about cargo getting onto passenger planes that contains explosives. The freight forwarders will many times have to put cargo on passenger planes for expedited shipping. New legislation is mandating that 100% of this cargo be screened.
In regards to your comment about drugs, you might be interested in this quote from the CEO:
"I [would] just like to highlight an experience we had and just something that we believe you would be interested in knowing where quite of bit of excitement was generated at one of these trials just last week or the week before. One of the major international air cargo companies testing the B220 in a large cargo warehouse was screening packages as they were being consolidated for air shipment. During the test, this system alarmed for drugs on two separate occasions on the outer surface of the packages. Customs officers investigated the packages and confirmed our results seizing the shipments for the transportation of illegal narcotics; I don't think anyone will be surprised that the person in charge of this trial is quite happy with our systems performance right now."
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
TSA could potentially be a big buyer, but the market is far bigger with the air cargo forwarders (UPS, FedEx, etc). TSA doesn't care whether or not they have to spend money. But like I said in the article, TSA has already set aside over $80m for ETD purchases this year and $1b over the next 3 years for their EBSP (part of an $11b program).
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
I mentioned it in the article. Perhaps you should re-read. Again, I just don't see $40m in debt being a huge overhang. If it was $400m, it would be a different story.
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
It's funny you mention Ion Track because Implant's current COO is Dr. Bill McGann who started that company and then sold it to GE for like $200mil. He then went on to become CTO at GE security.
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
"Just as with anything in life, there are tradeoffs. Implant's technology wasn't developed for free and they're carrying debt of about $38m. The good news is their lender has been accommodative and has amended their loan agreement several times, most recently extending the loan to March 2014. The not-so-good news is that this financing comes with the cost of dilutive stock options. Currently, the fully diluted share count is north of 100m shares, although many of those options are priced above where the stock is currently trading. This is not atypical with regards to small companies who have developed new technology, but it is something to factor in."
____________________
DMRJ could have decided to sell shares for any number of reasons...just like the reason you supposedly covered your short. It doesn't mean they don't have faith in the company. Fact is, when it came time to renegotiate the loan in March, DMRJ gave Implant everything they wanted...including 1:1 conversion on the new options.
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
But you're still missing the bigger picture here. This was definitely a risky play last year before approval and the stock was trading higher last year than it is now. TSA approval alone is probably worth a few hundred million considering it's a billion dollar market and there are only 3 players...and 2 of them have equipment expiring this year.
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
DMRJ only has $3m left of $0.08 options. The rest are convertible at about $1.15. Their interests are now aligned with shareholder interests.
Astrotech CEO Purchases 1.8 Million Shares Showing Confidence In Company [View article]
The next two quarters coming up should both be profitable due to more activity in their Space division.
And the book value is probably understated anyway. Their satellite processing facilities would cost over $100m to build new today.
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
1) Implant has the only system approved under the new 2012 TSA standards
2) Competitor's systems expire between now and January 1st.
3) Implant is moving to a facility more than 2x the size of its current facility two years before their lease is up.
4) Management has indicated there is high interest from the major air-cargo companies as well as government officials so much so that they took personal visits to Implant.
And yes, if a big order was placed, they could easily get financing for materials. That's a non-issue and is laughable that you would even bring it up.
DMRJ took all the risk here so I don't have a problem with their options. If Implant didn't get TSA approval, it would have been over and DMRJ would have been looking at a total loss.
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
Obviously, the debt is the elephant in the room that any 1st year business major could point to, but I care more about future prospects. I look at it like a biotech stock that just got FDA approval. Investors are willing to pay for future cash flow.
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
In regards to your comment about drugs, you might be interested in this quote from the CEO:
"I [would] just like to highlight an experience we had and just something that we believe you would be interested in knowing where quite of bit of excitement was generated at one of these trials just last week or the week before. One of the major international air cargo companies testing the B220 in a large cargo warehouse was screening packages as they were being consolidated for air shipment. During the test, this system alarmed for drugs on two separate occasions on the outer surface of the packages. Customs officers investigated the packages and confirmed our results seizing the shipments for the transportation of illegal narcotics; I don't think anyone will be surprised that the person in charge of this trial is quite happy with our systems performance right now."
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
Why I'm Betting Big On Implant Sciences [View article]
And one big order from TSA wipes that debt out.