As a former broker at a Wall Street behemoth, it didn't take me long to realize that Wall Street analysis is not always correct. When it comes to economics, capital markets, and investments, my stance on some topics may be unusual and different than many analysts and investors, often leading me to contrarian views. My approach to investing and understanding economics employs a combination of formal training with informal common sense. While the next hot stock ideas and investing tips will come and go, one thing remains certain...markets always return to the mean as excesses in one direction inevitably lead to excesses in the other. Successful long term investing is about uncovering opportunities that have fallen by the wayside as investors flock to the newest "money-maker" or identifying long term trends that will ultimately lead to growth in a specific company or sector. Often times, this means being willing to make decisions that others are avoiding.
Fama and French proved out that Asset Allocation accounts for 96% of typical investment returns. I need to constantly remind myself that it is about asset allocation, not individual company picks. Buffett is an asset allocator, not just a stock picker.
I have decided to pursue the Magic Formula methodology of stock selections. I put on a twist that I got from reading Warren Buffet. He suggests that you invest at the lowest market cap you can. He can’t buy micro caps in BRK.B since they won’t move the needle on his portfolio. I can and will.
Tales From The Future (tftf). I picked my nickname because many advisors and investors claim they can predict the future of the (stock) markets and somehow pick the winners. I don't. I usually do not engage in short-term trading and myopic analysis (quarter by quarter, without looking at the big picture). I like to work with long-term scenarios with a focus on possible disruptions in the technology and energy sectors. I look into value and contrarian ideas as well as emerging technologies and growth stocks worldwide, both on the long and short side. I also like to discuss the influence of monetary policy on global stock markets. I am fiercely independent in my investment research and therefore use the image of a lone Ninja. This influenced my investment principles for the past 20+ years: Pick your targets with patience. Do your OWN diligence. Never follow the herd blindly: 'Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.' General Sector Focus: Technology/Internet, Value, Disruptors, Energy/Alt Energy, Entertainment Stocks and Monetary Policy/Geopolitics. Geographical Focus: USA, Western Europe, Japan. Sector 'Halo' Focus Stocks: AAPL, TSLA... PS: Not a native English speaker. I apologize in advance for any typos and grammatical errors.
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