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  • OvaScience Insiders Egging On Their Stock [View article]
    Yikes, you're right! Let me see if I can fix and resubmit.

    Thanks for your eyes.

    Jonathan Moreland
    Dir. of Research
    InsiderInsights.com
    Apr 26, 2015. 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InsiderInsights.com Daily Round Up 4/17/15: YELP, OPK, BH, AGCO [View article]
    ...and thank you for reminding me that we really should beef up our FAQ and other resources. We've been so hyper focused on developing product over the years that our explanations have fallen behind. Perhaps I should cull some of our discussion for our website.

    Jonathan Moreland
    Dir. of Research
    InsiderInsights.com
    Apr 23, 2015. 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InsiderInsights.com Daily Round Up 4/17/15: YELP, OPK, BH, AGCO [View article]
    Hi Pico.

    As much as we would like to bang the drum about how useful our proprietary Insider Statistics and Company Ratings are, it would be dangerous to assume that past performance of the insider will equate with future returns for their stock. Projecting a stock's upside using our historical Insider Statistics is both logically and mathematically incorrect.

    What we do is to incorporate the factual Statistics data into our InsiderBot (automated ranking expert system) along with many other factors to produce a Significance Rating. We then use our Rating to determine if a stock is worth our time to analyze fundamentally. Using fundamentals, technicals and other methods are what are necessary to produce a model predicting future returns.

    There is no short cut to incorporating insider data into your prudent investment process. Any service that tells you there is, is selling snake oil--no matter how many and how professional their charts look.

    We've spend decades and much R&D expense to develop the best programs, tools and metrics we know of to use insider data in the investment process. We incorporate aspects of behavioral analysis as well as the cold hard numbers. But in the end, we only invest if a stock also meets other fundamental and technical criteria.

    In effect, we do not invest in a stock because the insider does. We invest in it because we like its fundamental prospects. Yes, we would never have found the stock if not for our insider Statistics, tools and Ratings--which represent the best dang first screen we know of to put the odds of being profitable in your favor. But insider data is a means, not an end.

    ..and that's coming from a long-time "insider guy".

    Jonathan Moreland
    Dir. of Research
    InsiderInsights.com
    Apr 22, 2015. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InsiderInsights.com Daily Round Up 4/17/15: YELP, OPK, BH, AGCO [View article]
    Thanks for the comments and input Pico. We're trying to get investors to expect more from insider data, while also working like heck to improve our own procedures for analyzing it. It's a labor of love, and a work in progress. If you ever think we've missed something, please let us know.

    JM
    Apr 21, 2015. 10:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InsiderInsights.com Daily Round Up 4/17/15: YELP, OPK, BH, AGCO [View article]
    Very astute of you to think RPC is worth considering even though its Insider Company rating is merely "Conflicted". Insiders selling after a stock has traded up over 30% in a year is boringly normal, and insignificant. The fact that an insider is also adding to his position after that yearly gain (and corresponding with a short-term pullback) is not normal, and therefore bullish. Also, as I suggest in the above comment, click the "Ryman Hospitality" company link in the table and see the insider's predictive "Insider Statistics".

    We've run back tests on using "Conflicted" and other non-Significant Insider Company Ratings in conjunction with various price action scenarios. There are definitely profitable combos over and above simply looking at blatantly "Significant" insider signals. It's all comes down to behavioral analysis.

    So much of the free insider stuff on the Internet focuses too much on the dollar values of transactions. Drives us nuts over here since it really cheapens the "Insider Approach". I think all the meaningless "dollar value" articles are a big reason why insider data is so underutilized by individual investors. When the stocks in those too-simplistic articles don't pan out, investors dismiss the data as worthwhile to follow.

    We are hardly always right. But putting more time into insider analysis has consistently allowed us to have more winners than losers, and winners that go up more than our losers go down. And that's what investing is about as far as I'm concerned.

    Just my $0.02.

    Jonathan Moreland
    Dir. of Research
    InsiderInsights.com
    Apr 21, 2015. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InsiderInsights.com Daily Round Up 4/17/15: YELP, OPK, BH, AGCO [View article]
    Yes, any one of Dr. Frost's purchases is so small compared to his net worth and current holdings that it seems like meaningless window dressing. But the facts are the facts.

    I'm not sure if you're aware, but you can click the "Opko Health" company link in the table to see our Free Insider History for OPK. The "Insider Statistics" at the left of the history say it all. He has a very large sample size of purchases that have aged over a year, and his "Hit Rate" and "Mean Return" show that his trades are irrefutably predictive.

    Also, See that number "17" in the history's Insider Statistics? That's hyperlinked too, and indicates that he has 17 Scorecards in our system. Click that to see just how consistently profitable he has been with his trades over multiple stocks and multiple time frames.

    Our InsiderBot ingests all these stats on the fly (among many other factors) to generate the Insider Company Rating that we then relay in our Daily Round Up articles. It takes a lot of work to make it all look so simple!

    Jonathan Moreland
    Dir. of Research
    InsiderInsights.com
    Apr 21, 2015. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InsiderInsights.com Daily Round Up 4/17/15: YELP, OPK, BH, AGCO [View article]
    Agreed, this is an interesting one. We have not added AGCO to our Newsletter's official Recommended List because of my objections with the lower expected revs. But the stock is in a client account as a trade based on the "Significant" insider company rating coming in confluence with the stock's bullish looking technical state. That combination of metrics has proven profitable to act on in the past.

    Just my $0.02.

    Jonathan Moreland
    Dir. of Research
    InsiderInsights.com
    Apr 21, 2015. 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InsiderInsights.com Daily Round Up 4/15/15: AGCO, ZTR, TSI, FNBG [View article]
    Hi SSM.

    Indeed, and agreed. Mr. Cooperman is a legend and an icon. My respect for him is immense. I have been in several Cooperman stocks over the decades, and smiled in admiration every time I heard him personally ask a question on a quarterly conference call instead of thinking such fundamental research was something to delegate.

    Alas, Mr. Cooperman's track record with his Atlas-related purchases has not been up to his normal high standard. I recall him acknowledging his sub-par performance last year in general in an interview some months ago. His investments in ARP and ATLS were part of his lamentable underperformance last year.

    We followed him into ARP ourselves on 2/21/14, and sold for a 31.6% loss on 12/8/14 when ARP still fetched $12.32--even though Mr. Cooperman was still involved with the name. ARP is up over 12% so far this week--but still trading below $9.

    In other words, it's usually profitable to acknowledge the tendency of an insider to be great. But it's also fine to admit that they are human as well. Mr. Cooperman would likely be fine admitting his fallibility himself if asked. He may have many more winners than losers, but nobody's perfect. So while we will always view Mr. Cooperman's insider trades with respect, we will never let ourselves be sycophants of any insider.

    An important aspect of our work that helps us not be sycophants is our proprietary Filer Statistics. Even the Free Insider Histories on InsiderInsights.com relay this data, and we think they are much better than the other insider scores that (literally) litter the Internet these days.

    Mr. Cooperman's stats with both ARP and ATLS just aren't good. ATLS even traded down sharply after Mr. Cooperman's Form 3 filings on 2/27/15. His subsequent (very) minor purchase of $166,572 this week just doesn't negate the bad record. Bigger purchases in the near future into strength may, but this last purchase doesn't.

    We believe that energy stocks in general will prove very profitable investments over the next two years. And of the 150 stocks in our InsiderInsights Newsletter's Bullish Universe (published and updated each week), about a sixth of them are now energy-related names.

    So we are spoiled for choice for insider-approved energy-related investments ideas right now. ATLS may well trade higher with the group, and future purchases of ATLS by Mr. Cooperman or other insiders there may well prompt an upgrade of ATLS in our system soon. But for today's tables, the rating remained Insignificant.

    As always, just my $0.02.

    Jonathan Moreland
    Dir. of Research
    InsiderInsights.com
    Apr 16, 2015. 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InsiderInsights.com Daily Round Up 4/14/15: BH, NXRT, AGCO, COSI [View article]
    Hi Sofos.

    Thanks for kind words and good suggestion. Another reader also requested that we include the column indicating the "% Change in Ownership" each trade represents. Both suggestions are spot on in terms of identifying added information that helps determine just how significant an insider's trade is. Even more useful would be if we could add our proprietary "Filer Statistics" column to each record.

    Alas, we are quite constrained with the width of the tables we can present in our Daily Round Up articles. As it is, we have to constantly trim down company and insider names to make sure each record doesn't take up 2-3 row heights.

    There are also two other reasons besides practicality why adding more columns is arguably not critical for these articles to be actionable. The primary one is that our InsiderBot automated rating program already takes into account all the information suggested--and much more--to determine the significance of each transaction--and we clearly tell you in the article which transactions are significant, and which are not.

    The second reason is that all the information you could ever want to help your own research into each transaction is just a click away. The "Company Names" in the table part of the articles are hyperlinked to a Free Insider Profile on our site that has the information you requested--and all the other info as well.

    So if you don't want to take our InsiderBot's word for it, this is a very efficient way to dig deeper--without the tables being unmanageable in the articles themselves. That's my 2 cents, and why the articles are designed the way they are--with much back and forth with SA editors along the way as well.

    Let me know if you agree!

    Jonathan Moreland
    Dir. of Research
    InsiderInsights.com
    Apr 16, 2015. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InsiderInsights.com Daily Round Up 4/9/15: OVAS, AGCO, OPK, OGES [View article]
    Hi Pico.

    Those SNTA transactions were in yesterday's column:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    If you just heard about them, your source is a day late.

    Our clients also were emailed about the OVAS transactions yesterday morning, with more than enough time to get into that stock (if they wanted to) before it started to run.

    Regards,

    Jonathan Moreland
    InsiderInsights.com
    Apr 10, 2015. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InsiderInsights.com Daily Round Up 2/10/15: ZIOP, WMS, R, MLNK [View article]
    Well, the sale wasn't on the same day's tables because it occurred earlier. It was not a conscious decision on our part.

    Also, we do not treat 10b5-1 transactions as meaningless. The 10b5-1 sales are what are causing the "Conflicted Signal" to be generated by our InsiderBot ratings program.

    That said, the fact that YHOO's insider rating is only officially "Conflicted" instead of even "Insignificantly or Leaning Bearish" is worth noting. Usually after stocks have traded as well as YHOO has in the past year, insiders are only selling shares to take profits--especially flipping their options for a risk-free profit via cashless exercise programs.

    So the fact that there is any bullish activity at YHOO right now is more constructive than the headline rating conveys. Using our ratings in conjunction with behavioral factors (such as near and long term price action) is often appropriate to determine what action is justified. We apply this added layer of insider analysis in our Newsletter.
    Feb 12, 2015. 11:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InsiderInsights.com Daily Round Up 2/10/15: ZIOP, WMS, R, MLNK [View article]
    Click the Yahoo link on the table to see them. The last sale was on 1/31 filed at the SEC on 2/3.
    Feb 11, 2015. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rockwell's High-Risk Still Worth Taking [View article]
    Hi carrix_fool.

    Thank you for clarifying that we agree on a bullish investment thesis for RMTI, that Triferic’s approval appears likely, but that Triferic’s approval is not 100%. It seems we may differ in just how much below 100% the odds are, but we’re not likely too far apart, and we are both clearly long the stock now.

    I do not think it sloppy not to bullet point all the ways the FDA could justify issuing a mere “approvable” letter for Triferic. In my experience, some of those ways are also among those pesky “unknown unknowns”. And I can only imagine how insult-filled your comments would have been if I did, considering that you already seem to feel that I have undersold the bullish argument for Triferic.

    It is clear that you consider yourself a biotech authority, and have useful feedback. I thank you for your editing catch as well. But your opinions would carry much more weight if you stopped littering them with gratuitous insults, and doing so behind a pseudonym. I look forward to you changing both behaviors, and growing into a truly influential member of the SA community.

    Jonathan Moreland
    Director of Research
    InsiderInsights.com
    Nov 18, 2014. 08:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rockwell's High-Risk Still Worth Taking [View article]
    Nice catch Carrix. You are, of course, correct that CLSN did not have a PDUFA date back in January 2012. If I remember correctly, there was a general “end of January” expectation for important feedback, but definitely not an official PDUFA date. The article I linked to has it right, and it seems I should have re-read my own article before referring to it. Nearly 2 years and 100 stocks later, my recollection was obviously not perfect.

    But the point I was making remains the same, and it seems gratuitous to get insulting so reflexively. Alas, as with CC above, that seems to be the state of manners on too many biotech comment areas.

    The point was that with CLSN, our original position had grown way over weighted in our portfolio due to our 200% gain. By taking the profits in CLSN before the expected “feedback from the FDA or its European equivalent (EMA) in the coming days or weeks” back in mid January 2012, we reduced our over weight position in CLSN back to a normal weight one. So when CLSN tanked on the late January news, “we still managed a sizeable gain”. This approach may be prudent with RMTI come late January. I’ll wait to see where the stock is then before making that decision.

    You also seem to agree with CC that our bullish article could cause “uncertainty/weakness” because we dare to suggest nothing is 100%. Again, I just don’t get—and I don’t think the less emotional investors reading these comment threads get—why being long must mean being blind to risk.

    Using significant insider signals to pick and trade biotechs has been an extremely profitable approach for us and our clients for decades. But if you and CC have never been burnt in a stock by an FDA decision, then you are way way better biotech investors than I will ever be. I would urge you both to become authors of your own SA articles under your real names, and not waste your time making snarky comments to us numbskulls behind anonymous screen names.

    Jonathan Moreland
    Director of Research
    InsiderInsights.com
    Nov 14, 2014. 02:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rockwell's High-Risk Still Worth Taking [View article]
    Tough to know how to respond to your posts, CC. Passion is a good thing in life. We certainly have it in both our work and (when we can manage the time) play.

    It seems we agree about the positive prospects for RMTI as a stock. We just disagree on the odds. As I comment above, “…nothing is 100% definite in our world, and nothing more dangerous than thinking an investment thesis is.“ That’s especially true when an investment thesis involves an FDA decision. That’s my $0.02.

    It seems clear that you view anyone suggesting the odds are less than 100% for Triferic makes them shills for the shorts. I don’t get that reasoning. But I don’t need to. We disagree, and you are welcome to your opinion. No need for the name calling though.

    Jonathan Moreland
    Director of Research
    InsiderInsights.com
    Nov 14, 2014. 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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