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Institutional Insider scours the world of Wall Street to provide the most critical, market moving and compelling information available for today’s demanding institutional professional. Since 2004, we have served multi-billion dollar investment managers from 15 different countries. Tomorrow’s... More
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  • Apple (AAPL) And Google (GOOG) Stock Price Prediction Outlook For 2013

    Magnitude: MInimal to Moderate movements

    Outlook Prediction: Maturity and strength in new products will be trend for management

    2013 will be a year of great change. It will be a year of social change, economic unrest, and new political shifts. For the two technology giants Google and Apple, it will be a defining year of innovation and risk.

    Our week-long annual technology survey of industry experts from top technology companies in Silicon Valley and the greater New York tri-state area has revealed a surprising shift in sentiment. Compared with our poll last year, a higher percentage of those surveyed, believe Apple will miss fiscal year analyst expectations, with at least one dud in its product life cycle. While nearly 100% of those surveyed believe Google will have an edge in both electronics and soft sales.

    The findings from the report indicate a lack of direction from the famed iPod makers and a strengthening renaissance in innovation from Google. Our experts cite obviously the mini iPad as outdated, clunky and unnecessary, while newest innovations from Google have shined.

    Most experts agree that a new market will be required for Apple to continue its growth story into 2013 and 2014. Apple had succeeded in creating "new markets" with the releases of the iPod, iPhone, and iPad under the helm of Steve Jobs. However, with Tim Cook in Steve's shoes, it has been a difficult read on the direction of what the future holds.

    Apple has hardware style appeal but has been criticized in the latest poll for its lack of quality soft-design. Siri for example, has been heavily marketed by Apple as if it could literally be a replacement for a personal assistant. Upon further investigation however, our technology analyst believes it is nothing more than decade old technology that has been improved slightly, and packaged differently (ie. Listen for a command and perform a function).

    Google on the other hand, has the tools (data) to make products that affect lives in a more direct manner according to responses from our latest survey. The "Google Now" product, a direct competitor to Siri, according to our analysts, is what Siri strives to be, but cannot, because it does not have the data. Google is able to utilize its massive wealth of information collected from everybody in the world, and yourself, to fine tune the way you go about life. If you use any of Google's products (Gmail, Search, Plus, Android, Chrome), then it can use the information it collects to do tasks pre-emptively, without your control. In other words, there is no need to "talk" to "Google Now" like you do with Siri. It talks to you.

    To give an example, in the famed Samuel L. Jackson Siri commercial, Mr. Jackson asks Siri to find a store that sells organic mushrooms for his risotto. Google Now, instead, would know that its 6pm, know that you made the risotto last week, and would tell you when to leave to go to the store to avoid the traffic jam, and the ingredients you need, without any input from you at all.

    According to our poll, barring major announcements, Apple has the largest downside long-term risk and Google has the higher probability of outperforming the market. Our poll indicates a general consensus of 52.19B in revenue and and 46.92 EPS for fy2013 for Google, with analyst consensus generally coming in at the high 51B numbers and mid-46 for EPS. Those same respondents indicated that they believe revenue to fall in at 218.1B in revenue and 57.28 in EPS for Apple against a consensus of 219.81B and 57.58.

    Jan 04 4:10 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Sodastream (SODA) Shares Will Gap Up Higher On The Release Of A Bullish Research Note To Be Published In The Coming Weeks

    Sodastream store checks over the past week have been absolutely explosive. Over the critical "weekend before Christmas" shopping period, Institutional Insider ramped up store checks across the board to several per day.

    During these checks we noticed tremendous acceleration in unit sales of the Jet and Genesis models Sodastream machines.

    On Friday we saw that 90% of the stores in our universe (which we keep confidential for legal purposes) were already sold out of all Sodastream machines with exceptions in the larger regional stores; some carrying as many as 11 units of the Jet. By Saturday afternoon, every store had sold out of both the Genesis and the Jet. The majority of these stores take shipment either on Saturday or Sunday, and again, our channel-check analysts noted that the inventory had again been depleted even after restocking, with some stores carrying only 1 or 2 machines (of either machine, but not both).

    Institutional Insider is initiating a buy on Sodastream (NASDAQ:SODA). We expect SODA shares to gap higher on the release of bullish research reports that we expect will be published in the weeks to come.

    We are confident in our prediction that a report will be published in the coming weeks about strength in Sodastream and expect shares to gap up accordingly.

    Disclosure: I am long SODA. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Tags: SODA, long-ideas
    Dec 25 9:10 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Target (TGT) Is Unlikely To Hit Consensus In December, Sell-Off Likely

    On November 29th, the last day before the critical December month, Target management released numbers below analyst expectations for November sales. The street wanted to see comps of +2% for the important month but instead were given (1.0%). Investors and analysts alike have bought into the holiday strength story and shares have since stayed flat amid bullish sentiment and hope. Investors are banking that sales will pick up as we edge closer to the 25th even though management guided to numbers in the mid-single digits.

    Institutional Insider does not see evidence for holiday strength in sales to pick up. Since the November numbers were released, Institutional Insider has increased in-person channel checks to Target stores to twice a day, once at approximately mid-day, and again at approximately 6-7pm. We have noticed significant slow-down from the levels that we experienced last year (we have been conducting these channel checks on Target for the past 3 years). Our checks have revealed less foot-traffic, not only YoY, but less compared to periods of time last year where seasonality was expected to be lower.

    Our channel traffics were confirmed through interviews with Target employees that expressed the same bearish sentiment. Though having to deal with fewer annoying customers is better for employees, this will cause shares to drop when they release negative numbers again in December. With 2 more weeks left, we have seen enough of the story and believe this represents a good short opportunity.

    In the words of George Bush Jr, "Fool me once… shame on… shame on you... Fool me, you can't get fooled again." Institutional Insider believes shares will remain flat or sell-off until the December monthly comp numbers are released, at which point they will gap lower. We do not see Target hitting the "low to mid-single digit" target.

    Dec 11 4:44 PM | Link | Comment!
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