View as an RSS Feed
PRO Top Ideas
Top Ideas are high-conviction long or short ideas focused on market mispricings with asymmetric risk/reward profiles.
The Fresh Market: A GARP No-Brainer In A Fabulous Market
- Handsome return on capital clocking in at over 20%.
- Handsome free-cash-flow yield (ex-growth capex) of 6% to 7%.
- Very handsome long-term prospects.
Southside Bancshares: Great Bank, Sold Off For Shortsighted Reasons
- ROEs consistently above 13.5% - frequently considerably higher.
- Satisfactory 8.3% earnings yield without acquisition - 3.2% dividend yield.
- The OABC merger will temporarily decrease ROE and earnings yield, but the strategy will greatly improve the safety and long-term growth position of the bank.
- Southside has a proven management team able to whip OABC into shape (30% cost reduction at a bank with an efficiency ratio of 78.65%).
FactSet: Obvious GARP Play With A Superb Business Model
- Ridiculous TTM ROA of 30% on a recurring high cash flow business model.
- Large share repurchases will help to compound the value attributable to common shareholders.
- Modest growth -- which seems highly probable -- will provide an investor with a satisfactory return in a great business.
Weight Watchers: Excellent Business At A Fire Sale Price
- Weight Watchers has a great brand and business model -- plain and simple.
- Weight Watchers has had over $200m+ in free-cash-flow for each of the last 10 years.
- If the company can earn $150 million long term (in FCF or GAAP net income) the corporation is easily worth $1.9 billion -- 75%+ upside.
Pizza Inn's 'Growth' Plans Are Overrated
- Pizza Inn Holdings is priced in the market as if it could earn $2.5 to $5 million – but its current earning power is negative.
- Pizza Inn Holdings is priced as if it were growing – but it is on the decline. It even posted negative comps in its “growth business.”.
- Pizza Inn Holdings has historically made money through selling inventory through its franchisee system – a system which is shrinking dramatically.
- Rebuttal: Crystal Rock Holdings: Almost 100 Years! (And Counting)
- Perry Ellis: A Branded Apparel Stock On Sale
- Tuesday Morning: An Expensive And Troubled Retailer Makes For A Good Short
- Southern Missouri Bancorp: An Upward Reversion To The Mean
- Frontier Communications: Pessimism Is Overdone, Dividend Is Safe, Stock Is Undervalued
- Cinedigm: GAAP Complexity Conceals A J-Curve Business Model In Its Cash Collection Phase
- Stewardship Financial: 20% Discount To Book, Probable Long-Term Earning Power Of 15%+
- Access National: 15%+ ROE, Solid Track Record, Unrecognized Earning Power
- Gain Capital Redux: Increasing Volatility Is An Opportunity
- Town Sports International: Entrenched With A 12% FCF Yield
- Horizon Bancorp: 14%+ ROE And Increasing Earnings
- QCR Holdings: Increasing Scale, At A Discount
- Codorus Valley Bancorp: Growing Bank Deserves A Higher Multiple
- AmeriServ Financial: 20% Discount To Tangible Book, Bright Long-Term Prospects
- Fonar Corporation: Cheap And Improving Outlook
- Gain Capital: Cheap Now, Cheaper After GFT Acqusition
- Parke Bank: A Cheap Small Bank
- PartnerRe: Solid Earnings At A Big Discount To Book
- Lancashire Holdings, High ROEs Maintained By High Dividends
- Fidelity National Financial: 33% Of The Title Insurance Market At The Cusp Of A Housing Recovery
- Alliance Healthcare Services: Worth At Least $10.60, Probably More