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  • FitLife Brands Announces Share Repurchase Program [View article]
    Well, I already need to update my previous comment.

    According to Exhibit 10 in the 8-K filed today, for the period July 2014 through July 2015, John Wilson's salary was raised to $265,000 per annum, with a $25,000 bonus if revenues increased by 10% over that period and a $25,000 bonus if the company executes an acquisition approved by the board of directors.
    Jul 15 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FitLife Brands Announces Share Repurchase Program [View article]
    Dan,

    If you look at their DEF 14A filing dated 5/29/2014 page 9, we have the compensation of the executives. I have reproduced it below:

    CEO, John Wilson ~$268,957 *+ $15,911 ** = $284,867
    CFO, Michael Abrams ~$203,138 * + $62,631 ** + $16,092 *** = $281,861

    * = Salary
    ** = "Other compensation" In the case of Abrams, I believe this is the money Abrams received through his advisory firm Burnham Hill Capital Group
    *** = Warrants and Option Awards

    Michael Abrams, as part of his employment with the company, was granted a large stock reward of $294,250 in 2013 also. That is not recurring obviously.

    In my opinion, I wouldn't mind if Mr. Wilson and Mr. Abrams took a smaller salary and took a larger stock option position or restricted stock position. They both have, thus far, done a very good job. One would be hard pressed to state why they don't deserve to be paid well. Obviously, with the size of the company any salary worth a fifth of a million would improve the financial reporting of the company if it were eliminated. But, I think they deserve it -- especially if their transition to GNC's central distribution system goes well.

    Management is important and current management has done quite well.
    Jul 15 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FitLife Brands Announces Share Repurchase Program [View article]
    Excellent! Wise move.
    Jul 15 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FitLife Is Very Cheap, But Probably Not For Long [View article]
    Fitlife announces share repurchase program, targeting up to 5% of the public float over the next twelve months:

    *"At current levels, the program would enable the Company to purchase up to 5% of the public float over the next twelve months. Purchases may be made from time to time at the discretion of management as market conditions warrant and subject to certain regulatory restrictions and other considerations.

    “The initiation of a share repurchase program reflects our confidence in the fundamentals underlying our business, as well as the strength of our balance sheet and cash position,” said John S. Wilson, Chief Executive Officer of FitLife Brands. “Management remains committed to maximizing shareholder value and the new repurchase program provides us with another means toward that goal,” concluded Mr. Wilson."

    * http://yhoo.it/1nDsrAA

    Good news.
    Jul 15 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fresh Market Remains An Excellent Short [View article]
    You're right, thank you. Looked at the wrong line in a table (data also to be found on p. 6 of the 2013 10-K).

    That makes makes TFM's square footage about 55% of WFM and 75% of SFM.

    I also want to correct that table above because, according to wikipedia, Trader Joes is only between 8,000 and 12,000 sq ft on average placing it in a different category than WFM or SFM. But, I must say, the Trader Joe's I have been in have been pretty large... so I am surprised by those sq ft figures.
    Jul 11 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fresh Market Remains An Excellent Short [View article]
    "I still need convincing that the all 4 concepts can't thrive collectively." I agree with this. Besides, they will be able to leverage some obvious costs: accounting, finance, and legal. Also, if we were to group these companies by relatedness it would look like this:

    Natural Organics:
    WFM - 38,000 sq ft
    SFM - 27,500 sq ft
    Trader Joes - something similar to the above

    Upscale Produce:
    TFM - 10,000 sq ft.

    One can also see this when it comes to SKUs. Further TFM *knows* its customers shop at multiple groceries. They are trying to complement the industry rather than be a market share leader -- which would be impossible with their pricing strategy besides.
    Jul 11 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fresh Market: A GARP No-Brainer In A Fabulous Market [View article]
    Peter Lynch says his best performing years were sometimes the 5th, 6th, or 7th year.
    Jul 8 12:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fresh Market: A GARP No-Brainer In A Fabulous Market [View article]
    Here is a link with more details on the GS downgrade from Motley Fool: http://bit.ly/1lR5fcO
    Jul 8 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fresh Market: A GARP No-Brainer In A Fabulous Market [View article]
    I don't "flip." I am not a trader. Goldman Sachs has a different opinion obviously. Short interest also doesn't bother me too much. It is only a small part of a portfolio.

    I do think there risks but not really those as described by GS: http://seekingalpha.co...

    I am far more likely to sell for liquidity reasons (there is a bubble in much of the market) than because the business model is broken. I also would hazard a guess that poor management would hurt TFM before margin pressures. But of course we shall see. Neither I nor GS knows the future.
    Jul 8 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Strikes A Victory For Free Speech [View article]
    Pump Terminator is a really good name.
    Jul 7 03:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Strikes A Victory For Free Speech [View article]
    Amen Old Rick.
    Jul 7 03:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fresh Market Remains An Excellent Short [View article]
    I valued this company by estimating maintenance capex after I saw that WFM's maintenance capex is but a fraction of its depreciation. Basically you take operating cash flow and subtract a reasonable level of maintenance capex. Assuming I am wrong in my impressions of the company (I am a long you see), $12 still seems to low... The company has no debt, lots of cash flow and what seems like a differentiated business model. Their model, in some respects, reminds me of Starbucks (SBUX) -- and remember there were many people heaping abuse on Starbucks due to its pricing strategy (among other things). Yet people do pay premium prices. The biggest problem seems to be management and their store level hiring -- at least that is the impression made by Yelp reviews. We shall see.
    Jul 3 02:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fresh Market Remains An Excellent Short [View article]
    All that said, your comparable revenue and non-comparable revenue discussion is quite interesting. I'll have to do a similar study.
    Jul 2 03:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fresh Market Remains An Excellent Short [View article]
    There are some implications to your $12 a share estimate:

    (1) $12 a share means the corporation will be valued around $580 million assuming it still has 48.4 million shares outstanding. Given that your projecting it will be earning around $115+ in free-cash-flow to the firm (this is pretty low in my opinion) in ten years, your *still* talking about a corporation which will be selling with a coupon of 19.8% in ten years, if it sells at $580 million.

    (2) Take the $580 million estimate you've put forward and compare it with 2013's (adjusted for the non-cash impairment) GAAP net income of $68 million. You are claiming that the company should sell at a TTM PE of 8.5 *today*. This is despite its ROE and its growth rate and its business model. According to my own maintenance capex estimates, your assuming the corporation should sell at a P/FCF of 5.

    There are also a few problems with you figures:

    (1) The corporation has a TTM operating margin of around 6.8% (again, adjusting out the impairment charge) and it has been above 7% in the last two years. But you start with 6%. You may be right about the trend of margins but since the first few years of a discounted cash flow stream are particularly important it isn't wise to start off too low... *especially* since your recommending shorting.

    (2) Your tax rate seems a bit high by a percent or so. TTM tax rate is around 36.2% rather than 37.5%.

    (3) You also seem to make extremely problematic assumptions with regards to EBIT. E.g., you subtract reinvestment from EBIT. Of course, reinvestment is *supposed* to be approximated by depreciation which has, of course, already been subtracted from EBIT. So your basically counting maintenance capex twice. Given that this is a short article, counting depreciation twice and then using that figure to project cash flows is likely a problem.

    (4) As described in numerous books on the subject, your estimating value from your ACTUAL cash projections on a business which is reinvesting heavily rather than estimating value from its earning power. I think you may want to rethink that.
    Jul 2 12:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vitacost Remains A Go-Private Candidate [View article]
    Well done Mike!
    Jul 2 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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