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  • Project $1M: Achieving $1M With Growth Stocks, Part 2 [View article]
    I'm actually shooting for 15% growth annually. GILD and CELG will also be investments in the portfolio
    Nov 17, 2015. 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Project $1M: Achieving $1M With Growth Stocks, Part 2 [View article]
    My highest conviction opportunities. The 21% will come down once this is full invested, but MasterCard and Visa have a long window of opportunity ahead for further growth.
    Nov 17, 2015. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Introducing Project $1M: Achieving $1M With Growth Stocks [View article]

    My thinking here is that internet marketplaces benefit from network effects. More users, generally correlates with more places who want to advertise their inventory on a given platform. It would be hard for a new entrant to get the eyeballs, because they don't have the inventory, likewise, users won't go to a platform where the inventory doesn't exist.

    Thus I believe there is a moat. I guess it can be argued if its narrow or wide, but PCLN's strong returns on invested capital over a long period of time suggest to me that one is there.
    Nov 10, 2015. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Introducing Project $1M: Achieving $1M With Growth Stocks [View article]

    Far be it for me to put myself into elite fund manager territory!. I'm just giving myself a benchmark to try and attain. That benchmark helped me narrow down the set of companies in my universe that I believe have a shot at helping me hit that goal. Entirely possible (some may say likely) that I'll miss that goal, but I'm intrigued to see where I end up. Nevertheless, I'll be tracking my goal progress here.

    Interesting point you raise about trying to identify the next big thing to hit those type of return numbers. I don't really know if you have to get quite that disruptive to really hit those kinds of returns. I'll be adding some earlier stage stuff, where the moat trends may be a little more in their infancy, but where there is a real business and real revenue implicit.

    I'm banking on the fact that high returns on invested capital + expanding markets+ periodic market discounting and buying = mid teens share price appreciation. I guess time will tell as to whether this theory or experiment is correct or not!
    Nov 10, 2015. 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Introducing Project $1M: Achieving $1M With Growth Stocks [View article]
    Young DGI,

    No problem. Let me try and provide a more comprehensive explanation.

    I have a blended approach to try and attain my retirement goals. I have a modestly sized 401k holding thats invested on a tax sheltered basis, which just mirrors that largest global companies. I expect that to return, perhaps 5% annually over the next decade. I have a more dividend focussed portfolio with higher yielding stocks like JNJ, PEP, XOM, etc that I accumulate steadily and regularly.

    Lastly, I have a growth portfolio that I'm assembling that will eventually consist of about 17-18 stocks (I have listed the first 6 here). The focus of this portfolio is just pure capital return. Some of the stocks in the growth portfolio do pay small dividends, but thats purely incidental.

    I'm pursuing a multi pronged approach to achieving my retirement goals. Passive index, active dividend and active growth. Each approach has pros and cons. The growth portfolio is the 3rd leg of the stool, so to speak. My plan is to eventually have $217,500 invested into the growth portfolio and just watch it grow.

    The aim of the portfolio is to try and hit a 15% return goal...but I'd consider even an annual double digit return a victory here.
    Nov 10, 2015. 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Introducing Project $1M: Achieving $1M With Growth Stocks [View article]

    A stretch target, certainly is 15%. At a minimum, I'm expecting to outperform the S&P 500, ideally I would expect to attain a 10%+ return. If we get the large reductions in value for some of these businesses again, they'd hit my threshold of 5 star valuations, and I would jump back in and buy up again.

    My implicit strategy here is to really pick businesses that I believe have a long term earnings window, have shown that they can consistently grow earnings at circa 15% annually, and that I think can maintain their market multiple that they have been awarded for the duration of my timeframe (15 years).

    If these businesses can do that, I think holding and buying on major dips will help get me to a mid teens returns over the medium term.

    The main way I'm hedging myself is to be 50% invested with my own cash and wait for prices to fall into 5 star territory to buy up full positions.
    Nov 10, 2015. 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Introducing Project $1M: Achieving $1M With Growth Stocks [View article]

    Fair question. What I've tried to do is select a set of stocks that have long term growth and earnings potential in the future which are at least fairly valued now, or better than fairly valued.

    I could wait around for a bear market, but who knows when that will occur and how severe that may be. I do share your concern that prices could drop some over the next year or so.

    To hedge myself, what I will likely do is at least take 50% positions in the stocks that I've identified and then steadily invest to the full amount as and when individual companies show up as 5 star valuations on Morningstar or S&P's ratings.

    Without a doubt, returns are enhanced when buying during steep price declines, but its a pretty good crystal ball that can tell at what points that's likely to occur.
    Nov 9, 2015. 06:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 30 Stocks For 30 Years: Q3 2015 Update [View article]

    You could likely go one of 2 ways with less time. You could go heavier into the higher yielding dividend stocks to build up dividend income faster, or you could aim to achieve better capital growth with stocks that you think will faster growth.

    My personal preference would be driving for faster capital growth. Hence I would prune the slower capital growers like GE, P&G, Verizon and Microsoft, and go heavier into growth stocks like Starbucks and Moody's, Nike etc. You lose the power of dividend reinvestment working for you, but the strong earnings power of these businesses should deliver pretty good long term returns.
    Oct 31, 2015. 09:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MasterCard: My No. 1 High Conviction Growth Stock [View article]

    In my view, the biggest opportunity for carded payments is that which is untapped, ie the cash opportunity. The cash opportunity is biggest overseas. MasterCard is a much more internationally oriented business than Visa, and has established key issuer relationships in emerging international markets. It's actually not taking share that is the real opp, but the untapped potential which exists.

    Don't get me wrong, Visa should do just fine, and I have a large holding in Visa, but I really like MA's positioning in international markets. This should deliver at least a decade of solid growth for the company.
    Oct 28, 2015. 01:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 30 Stocks For 30 Years: Q3 2015 Update [View article]

    My thinkingis that there is a lot of sub par stuff in an S&P 500 index. I wanted to select what I thought were the best 30 businesses, and then buy and hold them forever. So i have an indefinite holding period as opposed to just a few years.

    It's my expectation that I should be able to outperform the S&P 500 long term. I will see how that goes.
    Oct 20, 2015. 11:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 30 Stocks For 30 Years: Q3 2015 Update [View article]
    Oil Can,

    P&G is but one of my 30 stocks in my Motif. I've listed the full set above. What I have found is that certain stocks may be overpriced and undervalued at various times when one buys. Critical for success is having a diversified enough bucket that makes sense. As you suggest having a 1 or 2 stock motif defeats the purpose and is probably a recipe for disaster.
    Oct 17, 2015. 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 30 Stocks For 30 Years: Q3 2015 Update [View article]
    SpaceCommander, I've got a pretty long term investment horizon, 30 years +. My big assumption is that these names will still be around and performing at that time. Provided that is the case, I don't mind picking up these companies regularly over the course of the next 30 years, acknowleging that there will be periods where they appear more expensive, and others where they are bargains.

    Provided I follow this approach consistently, I think my accumulation will come out well at the end of this period.
    Oct 17, 2015. 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 30 Stocks For 30 Years: Q3 2015 Update [View article]
    Hi Rose,
    Truth be told, I consider myself as investing for both :). I certainly want a nice pot of dividend income to meet my expenses at the end of the day, but accumulating a large capital nest egg has its attractions for me. Given my time period for accumulation is so long, I wanted to pick businesses that are capable of growing profitably for an extended period of time. and that can be relied on to provide the pot of dividend income for 30+ years. To that extent, I didn't mind that some of the businesses that I've accumulated provided small initial yields, I'm mainly concerned that they'll be relevant, and able to spin off cash in 30 years or so, when I'll really be depending on it.
    Oct 17, 2015. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 30 Stocks For 30 Years: Q3 2015 Update [View article]
    Hi Inzkeeper,

    Yes, there are some really great innovations for DIY'ers. Someone earlier in the comments threat mentioned another solution that apparently offers free trades. I am interested in taking a look at that as well.
    I'm trying to conform my investing activity to my budget and a desire to build up a strong fortress of diversified stable growers. This is working out pretty well for me right now. Its certainly a sleep well at night portfolio.
    Oct 17, 2015. 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 30 Stocks For 30 Years: Q3 2015 Update [View article]
    Thanks for the suggestion fazsha. I'm not a such a big fan of commodities (even oil is only a partial fondness, primarily to get some balance in the portfolio). I'll take a further look at your suggestion.
    Oct 16, 2015. 06:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment