Intelligent Speculator

Tech, long/short equity, deep value, growth
Intelligent Speculator
Tech, long/short equity, deep value, growth
Contributor since: 2010
No, the winner takes all dynamic I'm talking about is having Netflix being the dominant global streaming service and thus being able to raise prices on consumers because of its unique offering but also be able to achieve significant sale when buying content because of its ability to leverage that content to hundreds of millions of consumers.
yes, margins should increase on the existing consumers. However, if Netflix is spending billions to get new consumers and expand internationally, the overall business margins will not increase for some time.
how so? I'm not saying that Netflix will literally "take all" but that it will be dominant
Certainly hear you, I do think that in many ways, it is a similar story to Amazon and that Netflix should be spending this money so I'm not concerned at this point, I'll try to expand on these thoughts in my next post. Thx for the feedback
Certainly true, I guess it becomes about believing that the story will get better or worse
certainly an option but that would require me to use capital.. but yes
Right, but it has an expense ratio of almost 1% and would also require me to put up twice the capital.
What I'm trying to do isn't really to take a position but rather just protect myself against a huge crash in the tech sector that would take down even the more solid stocks
if only it were that easy:)
Agree with you and probably should have clarified that in that case, I would still be long, just limit my exposure to the tech sector... so maybe a portfolio would look like:
-long tech stocks
-short Nasdaq
-long standard portfolio
I think there were some legit concerns about mobile but in my opinion, if you have the service that is used as much as FB products are, there's no reason you can't monetize and Facebook has been executing on this very well
jstratt - I agree 100% with you.. no sense for any of us in picking out stocks that we don't get
No, it will close later this year
ha!! Nice entry point:)
Thanks for the feedback Jose! Glad to see you bought some FB!
Yes, and I'd argue that most major players have "some" type of presence for all of those
@heyo - Google is a player, and could contend but I don't think anyone would call Google a winner in social at this point, would you?
@MarketLost - or because that is not the current focus and that it believes its longer term profits will be better served by focusing on improving its product, infrastructure, etc.
I appreciate the feedback but that is exactly what I mean. Amazon has needed to build an infrastructure and while that's not done, it's more challenging to compare profitability.
Increased volume mostly, more negotiating power with suppliers, etc.
I do agree that they will always co-exist, but I also believe that they already compete with each other and that will only increase over time. When Amazon starts selling grocery, tv's, etc which could easily be purchased at a Walmart, it does create competition between the two.
Very interesting but here is my main point.
If you're building a company that will sell items to customers all over the US that will come shop in your store, then you will be building hundreds of stores, a distribution network, hiring thousands of employees, etc.
If however you build your business as e-commerce/e-ordering company, you'd obviously built in a very very way. Warehouses built in strategic locations both in terms of their location/cost, etc.
I think it'll be very difficult for Walmart and others that built using the first model to compete with Amazon in the 2nd model.
Thanks a lot for the feedback. The cloud battle will be a major one and could play out over a decade or more so time will tell but you're right in assuming that Google and Microsoft are formidable.
Loyalty is a challenge but I think that Amazon has built more of it than the tranditional retailer and part of that is by using tactics from Costco. More of it to come I'd assume.
It's certainly far from certain that those costs will ever be lower but I think you could make a case that they will at some point.
Don't you think that over time, that could change though?
I see your point 100%. Not saying this will happen for sure. But I think that if some company, especially a newer one, was going to build something of this magnitude, I don't think it would have been possible without these multi-billion $ investments. Point taken though.
@JohanLinden - Had considered that one yes, it's an interesting idea
@HStern - Same reason that Google never breaks down Youtube, competitive reasons.. no reason to give any more info than required
Matter of opinion in regards to those who've liked it.. I would be the first person, I'm sure you can manage to find 1 or 2 more
114 million is around the world from what I remember