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Intrepid Investor

 
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  • Lower Oil Prices - "Impacts" & "Opportunities" [View instapost]
    Fear & Greed, you're a Gentleman & a Scholar!
    Dec 16, 2014. 10:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Novavax Really Worth 25 Times As Much As Vical? [View article]
    rcftx,
    Thank you for writing - I respect your opinion.

    Your consultant has provided some information that may be helpful to other readers. Whether harvesting protein from a baculovirus expression system (insects, NVAX) for vaccination is superior to inducing expression of viral protein in the vaccinee (VICL) will be determined by phase 3 clinical trials. While both technologies are impressive, NVAX does appeal more (unemotionally) to this amateur. And I agree NVAX has a bright future if RSV-F does indeed prevent or lessen disease. But if this were an easy feat, it would already have been done.

    Both companies have an uphill battle. Both stocks are speculative because neither company has anything to sell. NVAX depends on govt (which I trust). VICL depends on Astella (which I don't know).

    During the biotech selloff of early 2014, I reduced my stake in NVAX. As market cap again reached triple what it was at purchase, I held on because of the upward trend in the adjusted-ROC. But as the P/S reached levels I considered expensive (50), I did the retained earnings-versus-market cap comparisons. I chose VICL for comparison - maybe you can suggest a better one. I then asked myself, "am I a speculator or a value investor determined to find value in the biotech sector?" I wrote my answer in the form of this SA post. I then felt I had to submit it for others to see because I wrote a pretty complimentary post on NVAX just a few months ago - how could I sell and still be on record as long NVAX?

    If I have made any major errors in my presentation of enterprise value, revenue, R&D-adjusted returns on capital, retained earnings, it would be a service to the readers if you could identify those. If there are scientific publications showing NVAX is much closer to clinical success than VICL I would be humbled to learn.

    Whether to speculate or rigidly insist on value is a personal decision. I thought I made it pretty clear in my post that NVAX was a better choice for some, but not for me. After submitting the post, and selling NVAX (I may kick myself later), I allocated a mere 0.5% of my portfolio to VICL so I am hardly tempted to pump that stock.

    All the best to you and to Novavax - we need a vaccine for RSV!
    Dec 16, 2014. 09:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Novavax Really Worth 25 Times As Much As Vical? [View article]
    You might be right, Freya. But I see inside ownership of 2.1% at VICL vs 0.7% at NVAX. I admit to having difficulty choosing development stage biotech with valuations in mind - NVAX at current prices just seemed too risky. Both stocks are speculative, there's just more money now at stake in NVAX than in VICL.

    Robert, here is an article posted at VICL website that describes their DNA vaccine for CMV formulation of which is a nanoparticle:
    http://bit.ly/13sEPNA

    Vaccine development is a huge undertaking. VICL has been working on CMV vaccine for more than a decade. I do not have the expertise to differentiate one formulation from another, hence the importance of relative valuations on investment decision.
    Dec 16, 2014. 12:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Novavax Really Worth 25 Times As Much As Vical? [View article]
    FM, the DD has been presented elsewhere so you are welcome to re-open those discussions. I meant this to be a simple look at relative valuations.
    Dec 15, 2014. 04:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alaska Communications: Better After The AWN Sale? [View article]
    So this is another plus for divesting, is it not?
    Dec 8, 2014. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alaska Communications: Better After The AWN Sale? [View article]
    Great information - in the Investor Presentation regarding the AWN sale, do you know to what "Adjusted EBITDA benefits from: $4 million elimination of negative margins of the retail wireless business" refers? and why that is not as good as it sounds? Thanks in advance.
    Dec 8, 2014. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alaska Communications - A Story Of Excessive Market Greed Now Turned To Excessive Fear [View article]
    Thanks for your kind reply - I couldn't understand what operating income ACS would have after sale of AWN if all the operating income was from AWN. I think your second paragraph helps.
    Dec 6, 2014. 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alaska Communications - A Story Of Excessive Market Greed Now Turned To Excessive Fear [View article]
    For 9 mos. ending 2014Q3 operating income was $30.6M on the ACS consolidated balance sheet. For AWN it was $93.6 so 1/3 of that for ACS would be $31M. So it looks like all operating income is from AWN. What am I missing?
    Dec 6, 2014. 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alaska Communications - A Story Of Excessive Market Greed Now Turned To Excessive Fear [View article]
    please elaborate
    Dec 6, 2014. 01:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alaska Communications - A Story Of Excessive Market Greed Now Turned To Excessive Fear [View article]
    Maybe my computations of economic book value and ROIC don't matter as much as faith in the managent's strategy which now seems more clear.
    Dec 5, 2014. 06:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alaska Communications - A Story Of Excessive Market Greed Now Turned To Excessive Fear [View article]
    Congratulations Munger Fan!
    Dec 5, 2014. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Favourite Value Stock: AGCO Corporation [View article]
    Kudos to SA for making this a Top Idea, and to the author for doing the research that went into this well-balanced article.
    Nov 30, 2014. 08:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is The Biotech Industry Stretched? [View article]
    Very clever to invert the P/E ratio. But don't you think current valuations would look a lot better compared to historical if growth were factored in (PEG ratio)?
    Nov 29, 2014. 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alaska Communications - A Story Of Excessive Market Greed Now Turned To Excessive Fear [View article]
    I appreciate your perspective and the article. Regards, Intrepid
    Nov 28, 2014. 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alaska Communications - A Story Of Excessive Market Greed Now Turned To Excessive Fear [View article]
    I can accept your numbered points, but when your valuation hinges on hitting a leverage ratio so it can pay out a dividend some time in the future, I'm left wondering why you just don't buy a dividend paying stock? Are you hoping investors will get greedy again?
    Nov 28, 2014. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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