Newcastle Investment Generating Great Numbers From Distressed Assets [View article]
Tim excellent article. I have a couple questions regarding any effect the Fed purchases may have on NCT.
1) Do you believe the recent announcement by the Fed to purchase an unlimited amount of mortgages, to have a positive impact on NCT's CMO portfolio? I believe there may be a chance that the Fed may create a sharp rally in the mortgage market and I have been looking for the best way to play it. This is assuming that purchasing $40 Billion a month in mortgages continues for an extended period.
2) On the same note, what effect do you believe Fed purchases may have on the MSR portfolio? Do you believe there is a chance prepayments may actually cause the MSR portfolio to miss return targets due to refinancing. What effect does a refinancing have toward the MSR if any?
Apple: How The iTV Will Revolutionize The Television Industry [View article]
If you are looking for breaking news you should get a Bloomberg terminal. If you want an investment opinion then Seeking Alpha is the place. I did not say this was breaking news anywhere in the article. A lot of investors see all the news as it's released but don't know how to interpret it. I like to provide an additional side that investors may not have realized. It's up to the investor to act on it or not. I don't just write up an opinion as soon as news is released. I still do a lot of research before I decide how to trade it.
This is my update to a couple of previous articles I wrote about the possible launch of the iTV. I wrote my first article about the iTV in September. Here is one of them http://seekingalpha.co...
Apple: How The iTV Will Revolutionize The Television Industry [View article]
I have to agree with Bryce here. I expect the content to be the big selling point here. I expect to see the same type of application development explosion that occurred with Apple's other products. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see niche channels that will start launching geared toward the iTV. This is just like what happened with the iPhone and iPad apps.
The phone and computer industry used to be the same way as the television market. Consumers used to upgrade devices after several years making due with their existing devices. The iPhone and iPad spearheaded the electronics revolution. Consumers now upgrade their wireless devices at an astonishing pace. I do believe the strategy may be a little different for the iTV. Subscription revenue is where Apple is going to make the big money not the hardware. Apple only needs to sell the device once and get paid every month for as long as the customer keeps the service. That's a new real nice high margin business with a predictable revenue stream.
I'm not worried about Apple's pricing. Apple has yet to release its price for the iTV but the company has yet to have a failed product launch due to mispricing. I can't say the same for RIMM but that's a whole other story. Apple knows its market extremely well and they will keep the price in line. Apple will price it at the high end like it always does and consumers will pay it like they always do.
Apple: How The iTV Will Revolutionize The Television Industry [View article]
Thanks for the comment. I believe the strategy will be much different with the iTV than Apple's other devices. Unlike the iPhone and iPad which generate revenue from hardware sales, the iTV will be a play on subscription and application content. Apple will only need to sell the TV once and gain subscription revenue every month for the life of the customer. The best part is that will create extremely high margins for Apple. This is the reason why CBS didn't want to participate in the iTV. Networks are used to licensing agreements not profit sharing, the problem with licensing agreements is that the price keeps going up every renewal. This is the problem that Netflix and cable companies are constantly facing. With a profit sharing model Apple and the networks are closely tied which requires the networks to remain competitive on price. Networks of course don't like that. I think the networks will cave once they realize the potential in generating revenue from new subscribers. Consumers are turning to online sources to watch shows and networks know this. I believe this is the best chance that networks have to turning around their declining business. I also expect they will charge more for an a la carte type service but consumers will pay it. I wouldn't mind paying $20 for 5 channels I actually want than $80 for 200 channels when I only watch 5.
Apple: How The iTV Will Revolutionize The Television Industry [View article]
Franc that is what I expect. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see people and company's launch niche channels, very similar to reality TV. Companies may use it as a platform to show users how to use their products or people could create their own subcription channels that target their niche interests. Apple did this for apps for its other products, I don't see any reason why they wouldn't do it for this one.
If you like watching on your device that's fine, the main driver here is the content not the iTV hardware. If Apple could get its content together this will be a big revenue stream for Apple.
Apple: How The iTV Will Revolutionize The Television Industry [View article]
I like to trade ahead of news and have been doing doing quite well with that. If you like to wait for confirmation and then buy, best of luck to you. Doing the opposite of "buy the rumor sell the news" doesn't really work well.
Read the links if you still believe that a new iTV won't launch.
Thanks for the comment. Because of the way I trade it seems that way. I still have a small short position left on the company which I'm still riding. I will cover that little by little if the company continues to fall. I have a trail stop right above the $19 area right now which will take me out of the rest of my position when that happens. I'm long term bullish on RIMM but not yet ready to just flip my position at current prices. I said wouldn't be surprised to see RIMM test the next level of support at $8 because there really isn't a catalyst that will change the company's direction, its line of QNX phones, buyout offer or management change are the only rumored catalysts circling the company but are all still up in the air. Business will continue to slow and that is why I'm still willing to ride out my short just like you are riding your puts. I think there will be a certain price that private equity says that this is to crazy and RIMM is worth a shot. I believe we start seeing interest once the 8$ area is hit. Markets like to exaggerate moves and RIM may be the next one.
I agree that RIMM needs to reinvent itself real soon or risk eroding the value of whatever assets it has left. This doesn't only include its intellectual property but creative assets as well. There is a risk that talent may leave if they don't see a light at the end of the tunnel.
Apple - China Infringement: No Visible Effect [View article]
To answer your first statement,"based on what?" I would consider the fact that Apple can't use the trademark iPad in China, a country that produces 16% of the company's sales a difficult situation.
To answer your second statement. I never claimed to be a legal expert. This is obviously my opinion since I clearly stated "I believe", if you choose not to follow then don't. I based this off similar trademark situations with other companies but I never stated anything as certain. You obviously missed that.
Next, who claimed to know what Apple will or will not do? "I foresee" is hardly a statement of fact. Again it's my opinion, if you don't like it who said you had to follow it.
"Everything is speculation" this is interesting considering I included the links to the court ruling that denied Apple's trademark application. My credentials are clearly stated in my profile and have been there ever since. I don't see any information in your bio let alone any credentials. I never asked anyone to put their faith in me, it's up to you to make your own decisions afterall, I'm just giving my opinion.
Apple - China Infringement: No Visible Effect [View article]
Thank you for your comment and highlighting the prior arrangement. Yes, Apple did purchase the trademark from Proview for 35,000 pounds which was supposed to include China. It appears there may have been an issue with the mark assignment in China or Proview may have pulled a fast one on Apple and some how found a loop hole to leave the China market out of the transfer. We will get more detail in the coming days when the case goes to court. The fact that the China Trademark Office still recognizes Proview as owner is a big problem for Apple. Many foreign courts often side with the local owner which ends up being a problem for the true patent and trademark owner especially if the owner is from another country. I expect the same type of ruling from China.
McDonald's: Dividends Are Only Part Of The Growth Story [View article]
Excellent point with the stock spllit, I would love for McDonald's to have a stock split. I think it would bring a ton of new investors if it did that.
McDonald's: Dividends Are Only Part Of The Growth Story [View article]
Definitely good value at the $85. I would really like a stock split like mbkelly has mentioned. Even though stock splits don't create much value by cutting its share price, it creates more demand for shares that brings appreciation as more investors are able to buy at lower prices.
McDonald's: Dividends Are Only Part Of The Growth Story [View article]
Thanks for the comment. I'm looking to add on the next pullback that holds above the $90 area. The $100 mark is usually a very tough resistance area for stocks so I'm looking at taking some profits there then adding back to my position on the pullback if it holds. If McDonald's fails to hold the $90 area, I will re-evaluate the trade.
Sirius XM Would Be Just Fine Without Mel Karmazin [View article]
Paku, yes I agree that Liberty Media got the company for almost nothing but like Bluejay said Mel didn't have a choice. SIRI was in a very difficult situation and had very few options. If SIRI filed chapter 11 existing sharehholders would have been wiped out because of the debt load.
Yahoo: Still Opportunity To Profit From A Buyout [View article]
Thanks for the comment. Yes, I was actually eyeing $19 in the article because of the 52 week high and usually buyouts occur with a premium above the high. I wanted to be conservative for those reading but I really wouldn't be surprised to see the deal done at $21.
Yahoo: Still Opportunity To Profit From A Buyout [View article]
Yes, that's why at this point it's like I have a call option in a way. If Yahoo accepts the minority offer from SIlver Lake or TPG the stock will usually stay around that price and I will take my 14% and run but if I get a nice premium offer in the $20 area for the whole company then I get a nice reward. That's why I liked the risk reward scenario. Yes, there is risk that Yahoo could sell off hard if it takes the $16.60 minority offer but doesn't usually happen because the market usually sees the bid as the current value of the stock because that is what private equity is buying shares for. That gives me a cushion but nothing is 100%, there are always exemptions when it comes to trading.
Newcastle Investment Generating Great Numbers From Distressed Assets [View article]
1) Do you believe the recent announcement by the Fed to purchase an unlimited amount of mortgages, to have a positive impact on NCT's CMO portfolio? I believe there may be a chance that the Fed may create a sharp rally in the mortgage market and I have been looking for the best way to play it. This is assuming that purchasing $40 Billion a month in mortgages continues for an extended period.
2) On the same note, what effect do you believe Fed purchases may have on the MSR portfolio? Do you believe there is a chance prepayments may actually cause the MSR portfolio to miss return targets due to refinancing. What effect does a refinancing have toward the MSR if any?
Thanks again for putting MSR on my radar.
Apple: How The iTV Will Revolutionize The Television Industry [View article]
This is my update to a couple of previous articles I wrote about the possible launch of the iTV. I wrote my first article about the iTV in September. Here is one of them http://seekingalpha.co...
Apple: How The iTV Will Revolutionize The Television Industry [View article]
The phone and computer industry used to be the same way as the television market. Consumers used to upgrade devices after several years making due with their existing devices. The iPhone and iPad spearheaded the electronics revolution. Consumers now upgrade their wireless devices at an astonishing pace. I do believe the strategy may be a little different for the iTV. Subscription revenue is where Apple is going to make the big money not the hardware. Apple only needs to sell the device once and get paid every month for as long as the customer keeps the service. That's a new real nice high margin business with a predictable revenue stream.
I'm not worried about Apple's pricing. Apple has yet to release its price for the iTV but the company has yet to have a failed product launch due to mispricing. I can't say the same for RIMM but that's a whole other story. Apple knows its market extremely well and they will keep the price in line. Apple will price it at the high end like it always does and consumers will pay it like they always do.
Apple: How The iTV Will Revolutionize The Television Industry [View article]
Apple: How The iTV Will Revolutionize The Television Industry [View article]
If you like watching on your device that's fine, the main driver here is the content not the iTV hardware. If Apple could get its content together this will be a big revenue stream for Apple.
Apple: How The iTV Will Revolutionize The Television Industry [View article]
Read the links if you still believe that a new iTV won't launch.
Has Research In Motion Bottomed? [View article]
I agree that RIMM needs to reinvent itself real soon or risk eroding the value of whatever assets it has left. This doesn't only include its intellectual property but creative assets as well. There is a risk that talent may leave if they don't see a light at the end of the tunnel.
Apple - China Infringement: No Visible Effect [View article]
To answer your second statement. I never claimed to be a legal expert. This is obviously my opinion since I clearly stated "I believe", if you choose not to follow then don't. I based this off similar trademark situations with other companies but I never stated anything as certain. You obviously missed that.
Next, who claimed to know what Apple will or will not do? "I foresee" is hardly a statement of fact. Again it's my opinion, if you don't like it who said you had to follow it.
"Everything is speculation" this is interesting considering I included the links to the court ruling that denied Apple's trademark application. My credentials are clearly stated in my profile and have been there ever since. I don't see any information in your bio let alone any credentials. I never asked anyone to put their faith in me, it's up to you to make your own decisions afterall, I'm just giving my opinion.
Apple - China Infringement: No Visible Effect [View article]
McDonald's: Dividends Are Only Part Of The Growth Story [View article]
McDonald's: Dividends Are Only Part Of The Growth Story [View article]
McDonald's: Dividends Are Only Part Of The Growth Story [View article]
Sirius XM Would Be Just Fine Without Mel Karmazin [View article]
Yahoo: Still Opportunity To Profit From A Buyout [View article]
Yahoo: Still Opportunity To Profit From A Buyout [View article]